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 * The Program
     
     
     
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PLAN A

SGS developed a new simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United
States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets and fatality
estimates. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead
and injured within the first few hours of the conflict.

This project is motivated by the need to highlight the potentially catastrophic
consequences of current US and Russian nuclear war plans. The risk of nuclear
war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the United States and
Russia have abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to
develop new kinds of nuclear weapons and expanded the circumstances in which
they might use nuclear weapons.

 

 

This four-minute audio-visual piece is based on independent assessments of
current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons
targets. It uses extensive data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed,
weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order
of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which
phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict from tactical, to
strategic to city-targeting phases. 

The resulting immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase
of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP. All fatality estimates
are limited to acute deaths from nuclear explosions and would be significantly
increased by deaths occurring from nuclear fallout and other long-term effects.
The simulation was developed by Alex Wellerstein, Tamara Patton, Moritz Kütt,
and Alex Glaser with assistance from Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, and Zia Mian.
The sound is by Jeff Snyder.

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