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ANALYSIS: 2010-11 NFL DIVISION RANKINGS, PREVIEWS & PREDICTIONS

By Matt Birch Sep 9, 2010, 8:19pm EDT


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NFC East-

1)      Cowboys

2)      Giants

3)      Redskins (although I wouldn't be surprised to see them at #2)

4)      Eagles

Good luck picking the winner of this division, it's a crapshoot every year
because of the parity from top to bottom. Now that the Redskins have finally
acquired a solid QB and fired one of the worst GM/Head Coach pairings in the
last decade, they can compete.  Dallas fields arguably the best defensive front
in football, but they also carry  a lot of pressure on them with the Super Bowl
being played in their house this year. Still, they are loaded with weapons on
offense, have TWO vertical threats in WR Miles Austin and WR Dez Bryant,  and
field a stout defense as well. However, I'll just stick with the cliché "they'll
choke in the playoffs again" rationalization and pick them to win the division.
The Giants are thin at WR with some tough injuries and I worry about the
durability of RB Brandon Jacobs who has sustained a lot of injuries, and the
animosity between him and Tom Coughlin. Even with the addition of FS Antrel
Rolle, I worry about their tendency to give up the big play. Also, as John B.
and Bl3ch touched on below, they are old in  their offensive (avg age 30.4
years) and lack depth there. If they sustain a couple of big injuries, they
could be in deep trouble. Eagles lack a solid run-game, and Kolb will have a lot
on his plate this year. 

NFC South-

1)      Saints (my pick to win the NFC)

2)      Falcons

3)      Panthers

4)      Bucs

The Saints have the benefit of something that defending Super Bowl Champions
rarely get the luxury of having - due to the uncapped offseason, they've managed
to retain almost their entire team from last year.  I love everything about
their offense, lead by one of the top QBs in the game in Brees and they're
loaded with balance.  They stretch the field with all of their vertical threats
at WR but can also punch you in the mouth north-south, between the tackles w/ RB
Pierre Thomas or east-west (or via screen pass) with Reggie Bush. On defense,
they have a great defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams who fields a VERY
strong CB tandem in Porter/Greer (both excellent in man coverage),  and as a
unit they really clamp down in the red zone. DC Greg Williams' exotic blitz
schemes are similar to those of Mike Pettines' -- tough to sniff out and very
deceptive.

The Falcons have always been plagued by their inability to win on the road, and
while I think they will be improved in their defensive front, their struggle to
consistently move the football on offense/rely on big play will be the reason
they finish second. Panthers have QB issues, and Bucs are still a work in
progress.

NFC West-

1)      49ers

2)      Seahawks           

3)      Cardinals

4)      Rams'

The 49ers are, hands-down, the team to beat in the NFC West this year. They
haven't won the division since 2002, but that will change this year. I mentioned
the Cardinals in my regression article, and I think loss of QB Warner/lacking a
solid QB will kill them, esp with their offensive schemes. They also field a
 weak WR corps and I question their run-game (27th in NFL last year),  and
secondary which gave up 243 ypg last year and lost FS Antrel Rolle.  The
Seahawks have an aging QB, weak WR corps, and cannot win away from Qwest Field. 
The Rams are a work in progress.

NFC North-

1)      Packers

2)      Vikings

3)      Bears (although I wouldn't be surprised to see them at #2)

4)      Lions

I like the Packers a lot this year, and had to choose between them and New
Orleans for winning the NFC.  I think by season's end they will lead the league
in passing yards (why I picked up Aaron Rodgers in fantasy). They spread the
field with a deep WR corps and one of the top 3 receiving TE's in the NFL in
Jermichael Finley, who presents a ton of mismatches for LB's/Safetys because of
his speed. They will be entering the second year of Dom Capers' system and his
3-4 defense, and are coming off a season which entailed them suffering a lot of
injuries in their secondary (as the Saints did the year before).  The NFL
(especially NFC) is a passing league now. The Packers excel in that. IMO, their
only red flags are giving up the big play, and Mike McCarthy in 4Q situations
with the game on the line. He made a couple of key mistakes last year. 

I love the Bears' young WR corps and Mike Martz being brought in to run the
offense,  but I worry about their defensive front which is loaded with older
players, and their ability to be punched in the mouth in between the tackles.  I
also think Lovie Smith is an awful coach and on his way out of there.  I
mentioned Minny in my regression piece --- Aging Favre, injuries at WR, lack of
depth at RB & CB, and Brad Childress being weak links. As for Detroit, I do
believe they had a great offseason, and are moving in the right direction, but
are still a year or two away from the postseason and a 7 or 8-win team right
now.

AFC East-

1)      Jets (my pick to win the AFC)

2)      Cheats

3)      Fish

4)      [Poor] Bills

Not going to explain my rationalization behind the JETS. Great O-Line,  arguably
best defense in NFL, and can control the trenches w/ ground-n-pound. Cheats
field a mediocre defensive front with DE Ty Warren loss and LB Mike Vrabel to
KC, and are young at secondary/ suffer a big loss with CB Leigh Bodden injury.
They have an aging WR1 in Moss who has expressed discontent towards organization
as they have said they don't plan to re-sign him next year. Belicheat can't use
cameras anymore, and they've never had a good run-game.  Miami is a new-look
team, which is why I'm not sure they have the veteran leadership/coaching staff
to keep them in line and get them winning right out of the gate this year.
Sparano has little head coaching experience, and now that Parcells has passed
off all of his personnel/consulting duties to GM Jeff Ireland, I think they
suffer a big loss there. Still a weak secondary, especially with CB Will Allen
on I-R again. Buffalo is an awful team, and their only bright spot is their
secondary. Maybe they could team up with Miami? lol.

AFC South-

1)      Colts

2)      Texans

3)      Titans

4)      Jags

Colts will take the division pretty easily again this year, like they do every
year. Not going to go into depth here, as neither Titans nor Jags have complete
enough teams to compete with them. Houston is an offensive juggernaut, but I
don't trust their defense to get stops in 4Q late nor do I trust their O-Line in
run blocking and picking up short yardage when they need it.

AFC North -

1)      Ravens

2)      Bengals

3)      Steelers

4)      Brownies

The Ravens are the team to beat here. They are an extremely deep team, and
appear to be the total package. They assessed their greatest need over the years
which was WR in bringing in Boldin, Stallworth, and Houshmanzadeh, and field one
of most talented RB duos in the NFL in Rice/McGahee --- great balance on
offense. They have one of the best defensive fronts in football, and their only
red flag lies in their secondary with ballhawk FS Ed Reed on PUP list and
CB Domonique Foxworth out for the year with ACL injury.  I think QB Carson
Palmer has suffered too many injuries and that will kill the Bengals and render
them predictable (which is actually what I said about them in week 17 last
year), limiting his mobility and arm strength. However, they have a great
run-game and stout 3-4 defense run by Mike Zimmer. Steelers also have one of the
best defensive fronts in the NFL, but I question all the switching around they
have to do at QB with Roethlisberger out ¼ of season, and also their WR corps.
Because of that, I think teams will stack the box against them. Also, their CB's
struggle in man coverage. The Browns are a work in progress, if that. Eric
Mangini is not a winning HC in the NFL, he's just not. We saw that first-hand.

AFC  West-

1)      Bolts

2)      Chiefs

3)      Raiders

4)     Broncos

Similar to the AFC South, not going to beat this one to death either. Chargers
should win this one in a cake walk like every year, with their high-powered
passing offense which brings in young RB Ryan Mathews to bolster their ground
game. He runs hard, and he runs over people. This team can put up 30+ points any
given night. Chiefs are improving but are still a year away from being a playoff
team, they now have a coaching staff (and roster) comprised of a lot of
ex-Patriots, so they know how to win. I like the combo of Charles/Jones at RB,
and I think we will see the emergence of guys like WR Dwayne Bowe. Still a lot
of question marks on defense though. Raiders, Also moving in the right
direction, but not enough to be competitive yet. Broncos I touched on in my
regression piece, as they have loads of question marks, mainly on offense. Weak
at QB, RB, and brought in a lot of youth at WR so we can expect a lot of drops,
fumbles, and route running mistakes by them. Also, they take a mammoth hit on
defense with the loss of DE Elvis Dumervil. I see a lot of growing pains for
Denver this season, as they are clearly in a 'rebuilding' year.




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