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This website stores cookies on your computer. These cookies are used to collect information about how you interact with our website and allow us to remember you. We use this information in order to improve and customize your browsing experience and for analytics and metrics about our visitors both on this website and other media. To find out more about the cookies we use, see our Privacy Policy. If you decline, your information won’t be tracked when you visit this website. A single cookie will be used in your browser to remember your preference not to be tracked. Accept Decline Green Street * Solutions * * Accounting Firms * Brokers * Insurance Firms * Investment Banks * Law Firms * Lenders * * Pension Funds * Private Equity Firms * Public Equity Firms * Quant Funds * Real Estate Companies * Retailers * Insights * Our Ideas * Blog * Featured Insights * CPPI® * CPPI * Video * Email Alerts * Resources * Methodology * Events & Conference Calendar * Client Testimonials * Media Room * Press Releases * Products * DATA & ANALYTICS Proprietary analytics and actionable intelligence for public and private market investors Testimonials! 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America Europe Sign In Menu * Our Ideas: * Blog * Featured Insights * CPPI® * CPPI * Video * Email Alerts * Resources: * Methodology * Events & Conference Calendar * Media Room: * Press Releases Share: ANNUAL MALL GRADE REVIEW: MALL PERFORMANCE IMPROVES It’s back-to-school time for many students across the U.S., but they aren’t the only ones that will be graded on their performance throughout the year. Green Street also performs an extensive annual review of more than 1,000 publicly and privately-owned malls and outlets – for students of commercial real estate. In a new report entitled, Mall Insights: Annual Grade Review – On the Upswing, Managing Director and Mall Sector Head Vince Tibone provides updated estimates for mall and outlet operating metrics, as well as “grades” for both asset types. What are Mall Grades and why are they critical indicators for retail real estate investors and other market participants? Green Street’s proprietary Mall grading system contains multiple criteria to capture all the benefits of brick-and-mortar retail. “These factors are influential components of mall and outlet operating performance and are given material consideration in arriving at a cap rate grade and (property) valuation,” explains Tibone. Green Street analyzes four main factors to arrive at its innovative Mall Grades, including: * Tenant mix – Anchor and inline tenant quality as well as entertainment options * Productivity – Sales per square foot, total mall sales and foot traffic * Location – Redevelopment potential and competitive asset positioning * Condition – Curb appeal and future cap-ex requirements The A,B,Cs of Mall Grades The fundamental outlook for U.S. malls varies drastically by quality grade. 'A' malls, which comprise 25% of the total malls analyzed by Green Street, continue to maintain their competitive edge, Tibone reports. 'B' malls have proven more resilient than previously thought, with a large portion able to survive and stabilize following the pandemic. Meanwhile, the retail prospects for most 'C' malls are generally dire, many will be repurposed with another real estate use over the next decade. Foot Traffic Declines Modestly U.S. mall foot traffic is down 5% year-to-date versus the same period in '22, with the Pacific and Northeast regions experiencing slightly better volumes than the rest of the country. Outlet foot traffic declined 7% year-to-date, with stronger foot traffic trends in the Midwest. In a post-pandemic, inflationary environment, muted foot traffic volumes will likely remain the new normal. In pre-Covid economic cycles, mall productivity and foot traffic activity typically moved in lockstep. The complex divergence from this relationship has been further muddled by lingering inflation and changing consumer behavior such as higher in-store conversion rates, and fewer but more intentional shopping trips. Strength in the luxury segment skews sales positively but is less reliant on overall foot traffic. The Sales Productivity Input Green Street estimates sales productivity averages for each mall grade based on 1) REIT disclosed property-level tenant sales, 2) conversations with market participants, and 3) privately-owned mall performance, when known. “The sizeable jump in sales per square foot thresholds for 'A++' and 'A+' malls can be attributed to healthy performance from the luxury segment which was previously understated,” according to the report. Mall/Outlet Upgrades Outnumber Downgrades Of the more than 1,000 retail assets on Green Street’s platform, approximately 250 experienced a grade change, with 35% occurring in the REIT portfolios. “This year, Green Street upgraded more malls and outlets than it downgraded, which is a rarity,” explains Tibone. Many retail landlords successfully resolved anchor vacancies and improvements to merchandise mix and overall tenant quality, resulting in more upgrades than downgrades, Tibone reported. Successful anchor backfilling initiatives in '22 reduced estimated anchor vacancy counts by 30% to 450 boxes. Redevelopments – On the Rise? As the brick-and-mortar landscape continues to evolve, one thing is for certain: redevelopment plans have increased on a year-over-year basis. Roughly 35% of total mall and outlet supply has a proposed redevelopment plan in the works, though when those projects will come online remains to be seen. A total of 17 malls closed their doors in 2022, in line with Green Street’s projection of 15-20 mall closures per year in the near term. For more information on Green Street’s proprietary Mall Grades, to view our Retail Database or to subscribe to Green Street Research, contact us today: https://www.greenstreet.com/contact-us. LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR INSIGHTS Our thought leadership helps thousands of clients make better investment decisions every day. Inquire here to learn more about Green Street’s product suite. Professional Email* First Name* Last Name* Phone Number* Company Name* Comments and Questions Campaign Name Digital Source UTM Content Digital Medium MORE STORIES -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reports Highlights MONTH IN REVIEW: FIVE MUST-READ U.S. RESEARCH REPORTS Read More Aug 8, 2023 Private-Capital Real Estate SMALLER PROPERTY SALES PROVE RESILIENT IN 2022 BROKER RANKINGS PUBLISHED BY REAL ESTATE ALERT Read More Feb 21, 2023 New Valuation Tool BUILDING A BETTER AVM Read More Jul 20, 2023 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS. DELIVERED MONTHLY. Join our Green Street community of real estate professionals! Get an inside look at some of our latest insights straight to your inbox. 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