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INFLATION AND EQUITY VALUATION
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The PACER PERSPECTIVE
August 2022
Share
INFLATION AND EQUITY VALUATION
- Danke Wang, Portfolio Manager
THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) NUMBER CONTINUED TO SURPRISE AND JUMPED 9.1% IN
JUNE, AND ROSE TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 40 YEARS.
Source(s): fred.stlouisfed.org
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CANNOT INVEST IN AN
INDEX
What does that mean for the equity market?
It is widely accepted that moderate inflation levels are needed to drive
economic growth. From 1992 to 2019, the year-over-year inflation averaged about
2.25% and exceeded 5% only twice. Investors should be cautious whenever
inflation is negative or too high.
The impact of high inflation on equity markets comes in 2 forms: corporate
earnings and stock valuations.
Without the backdrop of a recession and earnings dropping, corporate cash flows
tend to keep pace with, or even outpace, inflation. That is particularly true
when inflation increases, and companies pass on higher costs to customers. An
example is the “great inflation” period in the 1970s, when corporate net cash
flow grew faster than inflation. In a scenario like this, long-term investors
should consider equities as a store of value for inflation protection.
Source(s): fred.stlouisfed.org
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CANNOT INVEST IN AN
INDEX
Although corporate profits might not be hurt by inflation, equity valuation
levels are the second aspect to watch in equity markets during high inflationary
periods. Because when inflation turns higher, stock P/E ratios go lower.
Source(s): fred.stlouisfed.org
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CANNOT INVEST IN AN
INDEX
For example, from 1966 to 1980, the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio of the S&P 500
index dropped from the 20s to below 10. Such pressure of multiple contraction
might happen when there is persistent high inflation which is the biggest
concern for equity investors.
Source(s): multpl.com/shiller-pe
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CANNOT INVEST IN AN
INDEX
As a result, in the high inflationary period in the 1970s, value stocks
delivered much better performance than growth stocks and the broad market.
Source(s): fred.stlouisfed.org,
mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/index.html Fama/French Research
Portfolios:
http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CANNOT INVEST IN AN
INDEX
Going forward, the equity discount rate will likely increase due to Fed rate
hikes, inflation, and increased interest rate volatility. The relationship
between inflation and P/E ratios indicates either the S&P 500 dropping by 37% or
earnings growing by 59%. Today’s P/E is 59% higher than the historical CPI vs.
P/E relationship.
Multiple contraction partially explains the market downturn year to date and the
underperformance of growth stocks relative to value stocks. Because value stocks
trade at a discount, they are subject to less multiple contraction impact.
Source(s): Bloomberg
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CANNOT INVEST IN AN
INDEX
Stock duration*
This year, in response to high inflation, the Fed raised interest rates by 75
basis points (bps) in July after a 25 bps hike in March, a 50 bps rise in May
and another 75 bps rise in June.
Before the June sell-off (due to recession concerns), the year-to-date market
movement was driven mainly by the waning appetite for long-duration (or growth)
stocks associated with higher interest rate expectations.
Short-duration stocks usually outperform long-duration stocks during periods
with high and rising inflation. Value stocks (especially ones with high levels
of current cash flow) or growth stocks with elevated current profitability have
comparatively shorter durations and, therefore, less vulnerability to rising
interest rates.
On the other hand, fast-growing firms valued entirely on long-term growth
expectations have a longer duration. And they can be more vulnerable to the risk
of rising interest rates or disappointing revenues.
Until the end of 2021, the S&P 500, which growth stocks have dominated, has
essentially become a 30-year zero coupon bond. Such duration risk means that the
S&P 500’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates is the highest it has been in
history.
As of 6/30/2022, companies in Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF, on average, trade at a
much lower P/E multiple (7.08) relative to the market (18.08 Russell 1000 Index)
and generate higher current free cash flow (FCF) relative to their enterprise
value (FCF Yield 12.79%). These companies offer attractive value in the current
macro environment.
*Stock duration and valuation
If you spend $100 to buy a value stock with P/E ratio of 5x, your shares should
make $20 a year in profits, and you should get the money back after 5 years. In
contrast, a growth stock’s P/E ratio might be as high as 50x which means low
profits today but potentially high growth in the future. Growth investors pay a
high price now in the hope of getting the money back in 15 to 20 years. In a
way, we can consider the value business as a “short-duration” asset and the
growth business as a “long-duration” one.
The same idea can be applied to high free cash flow (FCF) yielding companies
relative to low FCF yielding ones. A company with a 10% FCF Yield has a “payback
period” of 10 years, whereas a company with 1% FCF Yield will take 100 years to
payback. When inflation hits, the current high FCF is more valuable than
earnings from growth companies, so high FCF yielding stocks are more attractive.
PACER US CASH COWS 100 ETF
Is a strategy driven exchange traded fund that aims to provide capital
appreciation over time by screening the Russell 1000 for the top 100 companies
based on free cash flow yield.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
This document is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or
investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or
sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This document
represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not
intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. The
user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of the
information provided herein.
Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000
companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
The index was developed with a base value of 200 as of August 31, 1992.
Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000
companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
The index was developed with a base value of 200 as of August 31, 1992.
Russell 1000 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index representing the
top 1000 large-cap stocks in the Russell 3000 Index.
S&P 500® Index measures the performance of the large capitalization sector of
the U.S. equity market and is considered one of the best representations of the
domestic economy. Utilizing a market-cap weighting structure, this index invests
in the 500 largest U.S. firms.
The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship
benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate
taxable bond market.
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The Pacer Trendpilot® US Large Cap Index, Pacer Trendpilot® US Mid Cap Index,
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The Pacer NASDAQ-100 Trendpilot® Index is co-owned by Index Design Group, LLC.
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“FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used
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/ or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its
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