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BLACK DEATH MORTALITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS LONG THOUGHT – BUBONIC PLAGUE HAD NO
IMPACT ON PARTS OF EUROPE

TOPICS:ArchaeologyInfectious DiseasesMax Planck InstitutePopular

By Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History February 10, 2022

Pollen data from 19 modern European countries reveals that although the Black
Death had a devastating impact in some regions, parts of Europe experienced
negligible or no impact at all.

The Black Death, which plagued Europe, West Asia, and North Africa from
1347-1352, is the most infamous pandemic in history. Historians have estimated
that up to 50% of Europe’s population died during the pandemic and credit the
Black Death with transforming religious and political structures, even
precipitating major cultural and economic transformations such as the
Renaissance. Although ancient DNA research has identified Yersinia pestis as the
Black Death’s causative agent and even traced its evolution across millennia,
data on the plague’s demographic impacts is still underexplored and little
understood.



Now, a new study in Nature Ecology and Evolution demonstrates that the Black
Death’s mortality in Europe was not as universal or as widespread as long
thought. An international team of researchers, led by the Palaeo-Science and
History group at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History,
analyzed pollen samples from 261 sites in 19 modern-day European countries to
determine how landscapes and agricultural activity changed between 1250 and 1450
CE — roughly 100 years before to 100 years after the pandemic. Their analysis
supports the devastation experienced by some European regions, but also shows
that the Black Death did not impact all regions equally.

Bagno Kusowo peatland — one of best-preserved Baltic raised bogs in N Poland.
The site possesses an exceptional multi-proxy record of fires frequency and
vegetation change in the last millennium. Credit: Mariusz Lamentowicz

LANDSCAPES TELL A SURPRISING STORY

Palynology, or the study of fossil plant spores and pollen, is a powerful tool
for uncovering the demographic impacts of the Black Death. This is because human
pressures on the landscape in pre-industrial times, such as farming or clearing
native plants for building, were heavily dependent on the availability of rural
workers. Using a new approach called Big-data paleoecology (BDP), the
researchers analyzed 1,634 pollen samples from sites all over Europe to see
which plants were growing in which quantities, and thereby determine whether
agricultural activities in each region continued or halted, or if wild plants
regrew while human pressure is reduced.



Their results show that the Black Death’s mortality varied widely, with some
areas suffering the devastation the pandemic has become known for and others
experiencing a much lighter touch. Sharp agricultural declines in Scandinavia,
France, southwestern Germany, Greece and central Italy support the high
mortality rates attested to in medieval sources. Meanwhile many regions,
including much of Central and Eastern Europe and parts of Western Europe
including Ireland and Iberia, show evidence for continuity or uninterrupted
growth.

“The significant variability in mortality that our BDP approach identifies
remains to be explained, but local cultural, demographic, economic,
environmental and societal contexts would have influenced Y. pestis prevalence,
morbidity, and mortality,” says Alessia Masi from the MPI SHH and La Sapienza
University in Rome.

Stazki river valley — the complex of rich fens having an origin in the medieval
period. Palaeoecological signal of deforestations, agriculture and then forestry
development was inferred in high resolution from this peat archive. Credit:
Mariusz Lamentowicz

NO SINGLE MODEL OF THE PANDEMIC

One reason these results come as a surprise is that many of the quantitative
sources that have been used to construct Black Death case studies come from
urban areas, which, despite their ability to collect information and keep
records, were also characterized by crowding and poor sanitation. However, in
the mid 14th century, upwards of 75% of the population of every European region
was rural. The current study shows that, to understand the mortality of a
particular region, data must be reconstructed from local sources, including BDP
as a method for measuring the change in cultural landscapes.



“There is no single model of ‘the pandemic’ or a ‘plague outbreak’ that can be
applied to any place at any time regardless of the context,” says Adam Izdebski,
the leader of the Palaeo-Science and History group at the MPI SHH. “Pandemics
are complex phenomena that have regional, local histories. We have seen this
with COVID-19, now we have now shown it for the Black Death.”

The differences in the Black Death’s mortality across Europe demonstrates that
the plague was a dynamic disease, with cultural, ecological, economic and
climatic factors mediating its dissemination and impact. Moving forward, the
researchers hope that more studies will use palaeoecological data to understand
how these variables interact to shape past – and present – pandemics.

Reference: “Palaeoecological Data indicates land-use changes across Europe
linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic” 10
February 2022, Nature Ecology & Evolution.
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01652-4


WE RECOMMEND

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    Constantinople
    Mike ONeill, SciTechDaily, 2021
 2. DNA Evidence From Mass Grave Suggests Bubonic Plague Had Long-Term Effect on
    Human Immunity Genes
    Mike ONeill, SciTechDaily, 2021
 3. COVID-19 Case Estimations From SARS-CoV-2 Genome Mutations
    Mike ONeill, SciTechDaily, 2021
 4. 1,000 Years of Glacial Ice Reveals Unexpected Evidence of “Prosperity and
    Peril” in Europe
    Mike ONeill, SciTechDaily, 2021
 5. Where COVID-19’s Death Grip Slipped (Briefly) – Surprising Findings by
    Columbia University Researchers
    Mike ONeill, SciTechDaily, 2021

 1. The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?
    Lee Mordechai et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2019
 2. Origin, transmission, and evolution of plague over 400 y in Europe
    Rémi Barbieri, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
 3. Did Black Death strike sub-Saharan Africa?
    Lizzie Wade, Science, 2019
 4. Ancient Plague Genomes Point to Sources of Outbreaks in Europe After Black
    Death Pandemic
    staff reporter, GenomeWeb, 2020
 5. UMich Online Tool Aims to Improve Identification of Patients With Hereditary
    Cancer Risk
    Precision Oncology News, 2020

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