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New Atlanticist

January 4, 2024


WITH RUSSIA FOCUSED ON UKRAINE, GEORGIA SHOULD FORGE AHEAD BOLDLY WITH ITS
EURO-ATLANTIC AMBITIONS

By Jacob Paquette

Georgia sits outside the European Union (EU) despite Georgians overwhelmingly
supporting a Euro-Atlantic future. In 2022, a poll by the International
Republican Institute found that 85 percent of Georgians wanted their country to
join the EU, while Georgia’s constitution codifies EU and NATO membership as
national priorities. Georgian ambitions received a boost in December 2023, when
the country was granted EU candidate status, even as EU concerns about Georgia’s
record on rule of law and an entrenched oligarchy remain obstacles to full
membership.

Western partners and Georgian policymakers must now intensify their efforts to
shape the conversation and push for progress in Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic
accession, especially ahead of the Georgian parliamentary elections expected in
October. Given Russia’s preoccupation with its invasion of Ukraine, Georgian
officials should recognize the diminished threat from Russia to Georgia’s
westward ambitions and the Georgian public must be encouraged to hold their
government accountable to reform. This will not be easy when the sincerity of
the Georgian government’s commitment to EU integration is in question.



RECEDING RUSSIA



Russia is the greatest hurdle dissuading Euro-Atlantic integration in Georgia.
In 2008, following a promise by NATO to bring Georgia into the Alliance in the
future, Russia acted quickly to block Georgia’s integration with the West
through invasion. As Georgia lacked Western security guarantees, the country was
left alone to fend off a Russian invasion, resulting in the occupation of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. Ever since, Georgian politicians have toed carefully
between the country’s pro-European sentiments and appeasing any possible
security threats from Moscow.

However, recent developments lend little credibility to suggestions that Georgia
must forgo EU integration to ensure its security. Since the onset of war in
Ukraine, Russia withdrew more than two thousand troops from Georgia’s breakaway
regions, while also failing to intervene in recent fighting between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. These trends indicate that the South Caucasus no longer constitute a
top political priority for the Kremlin when compared with its ongoing invasion
of Ukraine. Even Moldova, threatened by a Russian presence in the breakaway
region of Transnistria, became an EU candidate in June 2022 with no major
military repercussions from Moscow.

Threats to Georgia remain, however, with particular regard to Russia’s growing
Black Sea naval presence. Though security concerns must be taken seriously, it
is not clear that the threats to Georgia are greater than to other countries in
the region that already pursue a strong westward course. Western policymakers
must bear these concerns in mind when pushing for reform in Georgia, while not
allowing security to excuse Tbilisi of engaging with reform.

With Russia ultimately preoccupied in Ukraine, this then raises the question of
whether Tbilisi’s hesitancy toward reform truly stems from security threats from
Moscow or from a deeper hesitation by powerful voices within Georgia.



GEORGIAN DREAM VS. GEORGIA’S EUROPEAN DREAM



Despite its official commitments to Europe, analysts question whether the
commitments of the ruling Georgian Dream party toward European accession are
genuine, or a ploy aimed at appeasing the pro-European sentiments of the
Georgian populous.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream’s founder and first prime minister, wields
considerable influence over the party. Despite his term as prime minister ending
in 2012, Ivanishvili’s reported control of 20 percent of Georgia’s economy and
immense political influence cause experts to argue that he maintains a sizable
role within Georgian Dream. Ivanishvili, having made his fortune in Russia
during the 1990s, has been accused of holding pro-Russian views to benefit his
business dealings, explaining his drive to normalize relations with Moscow and
his kowtowing to Russia in setting the scope of Georgia’s foreign policy.
Furthermore, EU recommendations to combat oligarchy and reduce political
polarization in Georgia seem to run contrary to the interests of Ivanishvili and
his party.

If Georgian Dream’s commitments to EU accession are indeed disingenuous,
Euroskeptic administrations in other accession candidate countries offer a
roadmap in deflecting blame for stalled reforms and working to diminish popular
support to join the EU. Since applying for accession in 2009, Serbia has stalled
on its reforms, and backslid on media freedom and rule of law. As a result,
public support in Serbia to join the EU has dropped from 65 percent in 2009 to
just 33 percent in 2022. In 2023, the Serbian government openly expressed its
skepticism, with President Aleksandar Vučić remarking that Serbia is
“pessimistic” about EU accession while arguing that the EU appeared
unenthusiastic about Serbia’s integration.

With Georgian Dream’s similarly questionable commitments to EU integration,
Western officials must engage intensively to prevent Georgia from reaching a
similar fate.



THE MOMENT FOR ACTION



First, the Georgian public must understand that Russia poses a diminished threat
and cannot be blamed for government failures. Though Russia’s security threat to
Georgia has clearly receded, expanding military cooperation with NATO might
further affirm Georgia’s security while discrediting misleading narratives that
Georgian Dream proliferates among the public. However, any military or financial
support must be conditioned on sustained progress toward reform.

Second, the EU must remain visibly engaged with Georgia’s progress so political
opportunists cannot place blame for slow progress on the West. Working closely
with civil society and independent media, Western observers must develop a
comprehensive public diplomacy strategy to maintain popular support for EU
integration, while offering reporting of Georgia’s reform progress to the
Georgian public and Western officials. This will be crucial in the lead-up to
the 2024 parliamentary elections, where Georgian Dream’s undermining of reform
can be challenged by the opposition and grassroots organizers.

Georgians have demonstrated unquestionable capacity to influence government
policy through peaceful mass mobilization during the 2003 Rose Revolution and
the more recent protests in March 2023 which brought about the failure of a
“foreign agent” law that ran contrary to European Commission recommendations.
Furthermore, with growing concerns that the 2024 elections may be subject to
meddling by Georgian Dream, the need for consolidated pro-reform opposition only
becomes more apparent. If opposition parties, civil society, and media cooperate
with international observers to strengthen popular pressure in the lead-up to
the elections, then Georgian Dream will have to make the decisive choice to
embrace voters’ Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Otherwise, Georgian Dream will suffer
the backlash, either in the voting booth or on the streets.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Jacob Paquette is a program associate for Freedom House’s Europe & Eurasia
Program. He is a former young global professional with the Atlantic Council’s
Europe Center and a recent graduate from American University’s School of
International Service.




FURTHER READING

Thu, Aug 31, 2023

RUSSIA IS LOSING IN UKRAINE BUT WINNING IN GEORGIA

UkraineAlert By Giorgi Kandelaki

If Putin is able to reassert Russian dominance over Georgia while continuing to
occupy 20% of the country, he will be encouraged to believe that a similar
outcome will eventually prove possible in Ukraine, writes Giorgi Kandelaki.

Civil Society Conflict

Wed, Oct 18, 2023

DESIGNING A US-EU INDUSTRIAL AND TRADE POLICY 

Issue Brief By Erik Brattberg, Frances Burwell, Jörn Fleck, Charles Lichfield,
Zach Meyers, James Batchik, and Emma Nix

Both sides of the Atlantic are confronting the geopolitical necessity of
adapting trade and industrial policies to be fit for purpose in an increasingly
competitive world. To avoid competition between Washington and Brussels,
policymakers must recognize each side’s priorities and commit to further
cooperation to bridge the transatlantic economic relationship, not widen it.

Economy & Business Energy & Environment

Thu, Sep 14, 2023

READING BETWEEN THE LINES OF URSULA VON DER LEYEN’S AMBITIOUS VISION FOR THE EU

New Atlanticist By Atlantic Council experts

The European Commission president delivered her annual speech on the state of
the European Union on September 13 in Strasbourg.

Artificial Intelligence Digital Policy
Conflict Economy & Business European Union International Organizations Politics
& Diplomacy Resilience & Society Trade

Image: People attend a rally to celebrate the European Council's decision to
grant Georgia European Union candidate status, in Tbilisi, Georgia December 15,
2023. REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze


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