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 * Electric Power | Energy Transition | LNG | Natural Gas | Metals
 * 22 Mar 2023 | 11:08 UTC


COMMODITY PRICE VOLATILITY 'HERE TO STAY' AMID GEOPOLITICS, ENERGY TRANSITION
CHALLENGES: TRAFIGURA CFO

 * 
 * * 
   * 
   * 
   * 

 * Author Robert Perkins
 * Editor Alisdair Bowles
 * Commodity Electric Power,  Energy Transition,  LNG,  Natural Gas,  Metals
 * 
 * 
 * Tags Battery Materials,  Cobalt,  copper
 * Topic Coronavirus and Commodities,  Energy Transition,  Europe Energy Price
   Crisis,  War in Ukraine

Highlights

China risks, renewable energy upheaval in play

Post-war price volatility may have peaked

But fundamental problems remain: Mercuria

    * 
    * * 
      * 
      * 
      * 

 * Author
 * Robert Perkins
 * Editor
 * Alisdair Bowles
 * Commodity
 * Electric Power,  Energy Transition,  LNG,  Natural Gas,  Metals
 * Tags
 * Battery Materials,  Cobalt,  copper
 * Topic
 * Coronavirus and Commodities,  Energy Transition,  Europe Energy Price
   Crisis,  War in Ukraine

Global commodity markets are facing increased price volatility in the coming
years as lingering geopolitical concerns and the rush to low-carbon energy
continues to stress supply-demand fundamentals, Christophe Salmon, the chief
financial officer of independent trader Trafigura, said March 22.

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Most global commodity traders enjoyed a third straight year of record earnings
in 2022 after surging market volatility in the wake of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine boosted trading earnings already elevated due to market dislocations in
the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But ongoing supply and demand risks from Russia and China and supply chain
upheaval from electric mobility and renewable energies means volatility across
commodities markets could persist for longer, Salmon said.

"I believe that volatility in the commodity market is here to stay in terms of
the consequences of the geopolitical situation. I'm not only talking about
Russia but also China," Salmon told the FT Global Commodities Summit in
Lausanne. "I'm talking about the energy transition, which intrinsically will
probably trigger more volatility into a number of markets."

Salmon pointed to booming demand for battery metals, such as copper and cobalt,
amid constrained supplies and low levels of inventory globally. The renewable
energy boom will also create trading challenges, he said.

"I can take the example of the electricity market. More and more electricity
will be produced from renewable sources which means that this is more volatile
intrinsically," Salmon said.


PEAK VOLATILITY?

Other top commodity traders speaking at the event, said they expect lower
commodity market volatility in 2023 following a year of extreme price movements
in the wake of the Ukraine war.

Mercuria's CFO Guillaume Vermersch, noting that Mercuria and its peers had
benefited from navigating the "extreme" price volatility, said this year would
be a bit different, even if many of the same factors remain in play.

"This year is a different landscape. We move away from an extreme pricing
situation as I think a lot of things have been anticipated ahead of 2023,"
Vermersch said. "[But] the fundamental problems are not solved. We are still
facing a war situation in Ukraine, we have lots and lots of projects that didn't
really come on stream and in terms of the production of renewable electricity,
we have a certain level of inventory and those levels really will evolve... so
volatility and intrinsic volatility remains."

Vitol's CFO Jeff Dellapina concurred that much of the market price turmoil last
year was "anticipatory" with supply energy supply shock fears avoided,
particularly in Europe's gas and LNG markets.

"I think a lot of that knowledge by the markets, that demand destruction will
occur and buyers can respond to high prices, probably put a lid on things. So
there's a lot of volatility compression now," Dellapina said.

Europe has turned to LNG in ever-increasing volumes to replace lost Russian
pipeline gas. Spot gas prices across Europe hit record highs in late summer but
demand destruction, a jump in LNG imports and a warm winter have seen LNG prices
in the region collapse.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the DES Northwest Europe
marker for LNG delivery in January at $12.03/MMBtu on March 21, down from a high
of $74.48/MMBtu in August.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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