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OXFORD ECONOMICS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest Global Outlook - September / October 2021

We have downgraded our global economic forecasts for H2 2021 and Q1 2022 because
of Delta-related disruption and the mounting evidence that supply-chain
bottlenecks are likely to constrain activity for several more months. As a
result, our world GDP growth forecast for this year has been lowered to 5.8%
from 5.9% last month and 2022 is nudged down to 4.7% from 4.8%.

Download free report
GLOBAL CLIMATE SERVICE: Helping you to assess the impact of global warming...  
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REPORT: Delta Surge...                 BREXIT: Assessing the economic
implications...
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LATEST ANALYSIS

 * Oct 12 2021
   
   
   UNITED STATES: DEBT CEILING DÉJÀ VU FOR CHRISTMAS
   
   The $480bn increase in the debt ceiling will buy Treasury only a limited
   amount of time before it is again confronted by the risk of default. Our
   current projections show Treasury at risk of exhaustin...

 * Oct 12 2021
   
   
   EUROZONE: RECOVERY TRACKER SUFFERS A SETBACK AT END-SEPTEMBER
   
   Our Recovery Tracker suffered a setback at September’s end, falling 1.1pts to
   87.6 after reaching a new pandemic high two weeks earlier. Lower consumption
   and weaker financial conditions were the main...

 * Oct 12 2021
   
   
   UNITED KINGDOM: THE ELUSIVE SHORTAGE OF LABOUR IS STILL… ELUSIVE
   
   Our updated labour shortage index suggests that mismatches between vacancies
   and available workers are not a major problem across the UK economy overall.
   Only a few individual sectors, including const...

 * Oct 11 2021
   
   
   ASIA PACIFIC: PANDEMIC DISRUPTS FDI, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN POSITIVE
   
   We believe prospects for FDI inflows into APAC over the medium term remain
   strong, even though pandemic-driven supply disruptions and uncertainties over
   the pace of recovery may see some firms rethink...

 * Oct 08 2021
   
   
   UNITED STATES: TREASURY DEFAULT RISK KICKED DOWN THE ROAD
   
   Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling by $480bn, pushing back the need to
   raise the cap until December 3. Treasury bill rates now reflect default risks
   in December while also signaling concern tha...

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See all recent releases


RECENT RELEASES


 * THE STATE OF THE CREATOR ECONOMY
   
   Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural impact of YouTube in the US in
   2020.


 * THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CULTIVATED MEAT IN THE UK
   
   A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat
   sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies.


 * THE VALUE OF FRANCHISING
   
   This study compares pay at franchised and non-franchised firms; uncovers
   areas where franchising supports business owners; and evaluates how
   franchisees are embedded in their local communities.


 * FROM OPPORTUNITY TO IMPACT: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC, SOCIETAL AND CULTURAL
   BENEFITS OF YOUTUBE IN BRAZIL
   
   An analysis of YouTube Brazil's value to creative entrepreneurs, businesses
   and users.


 * THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF UK RAIL
   
   The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in
   2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the
   railways and in the rail supply sector, were... more

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Helping you assess the economic impact of global warming and its implications
for your business through risk assessment forecasts, scenario analysis and our
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Evidence-based perspectives from our economists and analysts about the key
issues confronting the global economy.

Read more
EVENTS & WEBINARS

We run an extensive, worldwide programme of illuminating forums, roundtables and
webinars with presentations from our economic experts.

What's on?


IN THE MEDIA

 * Oct 11 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: INVESTMENT HELPS ITALY’S ECONOMY ACCELERATE OUT OF PANDEMIC

 * Oct 07 2021
   
   
   THE TIMES: WEAK DEMAND DERAILS GERMANY’S RECOVERY

 * Oct 07 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: NEW BANK OF ENGLAND CHIEF ECONOMIST WARNS OF LONG-LASTING
   INFLATION

 * Oct 05 2021
   
   
   REUTERS: EUROPEAN BUSINESS GROWTH HURT BY SUPPLY ISSUES, PRICING IN SEPT
   -PMIS

 * Oct 04 2021
   
   
   YAHOO! FINANCE: 'THERE REALLY IS A PERFECT STORM' OF SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES,
   LOGISTICS EXPERT EXPLAINS

 * Oct 03 2021
   
   
   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: FALLING UNEMPLOYMENT COULD ADD TO WORRIES ABOUT THE
   U.S. LABOR MARKET

 * Sep 29 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: EUROZONE CONSUMER ACTIVITY RETURNS TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

 * Sep 28 2021
   
   
   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: HOME-PRICE GROWTH HIT RECORD IN JULY

 * Sep 28 2021
   
   
   THE NEW YORK TIMES: PARTIES VIE FOR POWER AFTER ELECTION SHAKES UP GERMAN
   POLITICS

 * Sep 27 2021
   
   
   THE BUSINESS TIMES: DELTA-RELATED DRAGS IN 2021 FOR ASIA PACIFIC BUT STRONGER
   2022 IN VIEW: OXFORD ECONOMICS

 * Sep 27 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: END OF COVID JOB SCHEMES STILL LEAVES US, EU AND UK SHORT OF
   WORKERS

 * Sep 24 2021
   
   
   THE BUSINESS TIMES: STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL KEEP ASIAN ECONOMIES RESILIENT
   DESPITE EXPECTED US FED TIGHTENING


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