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Politics


MOST BELIEVE TRUMP PROBABLY GUILTY OF CRIME AS HIS NYC TRIAL COMES TO AN END,
CBS NEWS POLL FINDS

By Kabir Khanna, Jennifer De Pinto

Updated on: May 23, 2024 / 8:17 PM EDT / CBS News

 * 
 * 
 * 


Most believe Trump guilty in "hush money" case, CBS News poll finds

As Donald Trump's trial in New York City nears closing arguments, most Americans
believe he is guilty of a crime in this case. But they are less sure what the
jury will do after it deliberates next week.

Fifty-six percent — a majority — say Trump is definitely or probably guilty of a
crime in this case, in which he has been charged with falsifying business
records to hide a "hush money" payment and influence the 2016 election.



Opinions are highly partisan, with nearly all Democrats believing Trump is
guilty and about eight in 10 Republicans saying the opposite. Republicans are
less certain in their views. While three in four Democrats say he is
"definitely" guilty, only half of Republicans say he is "definitely" not.

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The public is more split on what they think the jury will decide, with about
half expecting jurors to find Trump guilty and half saying the opposite. And
views on both sides are far from certain. For example, far more say jurors will
"probably" convict Trump than "definitely" convict him.

If people believe Trump's guilty, they tend to believe the jury will convict
him. And vice versa for those who believe he isn't guilty of a crime. But about
a third in each group expect the jury to decide the opposite of what they
themselves believe.



Overall, about three quarters of Americans report having heard or read at least
some about the trial. And those who say they have heard "a lot" about it are the
most polarized in their views — they are likelier to identify as strong
partisans and express more confidence in Trump's guilt or innocence, potentially
blunting the impact of a verdict on the public's views.  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative
sample of 1,402 U.S. adult residents interviewed between May 14-21, 2024. The
data includes an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North
Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The sample was weighted by gender, age,
race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and
Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error is ±4.4
points.

Toplines

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CBS NEWS POLLS

More
Poll: Most believe Trump probably guilty of crime as his NYC trial comes to an
end
Abortion access finds wide support, but inflation, immigration fears propel
Trump
Poll: Abortion rights draws support as most in Florida call current law "too
strict"
CBS News poll: Democrats start out ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Senate races
CBS News poll: Biden-Trump race tight in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
More
   In:
 * Donald Trump
 * Stormy Daniels
 * Trial

Kabir Khanna

Kabir Khanna is Deputy Director, Elections & Data Analytics at CBS News. He
conducts surveys, develops statistical models, and projects races at the network
Decision Desk. His scholarly research centers on political behavior and
methodology. He holds a PhD in political science from Princeton University.

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First published on May 23, 2024 / 5:00 PM EDT

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