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The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows

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Crime & Courts


THE U.S. CRIME RATE IS STILL DROPPING, FBI DATA SHOWS

Why does the public think it's going up? “There is definitely more disorder in
cities than there was five years ago," said one expert. “People confuse disorder
and crime."
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New FBI data shows crime rates have decreased in 2023
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March 19, 2024, 10:10 AM PDT
By Ken Dilanian

New FBI data confirms previous indications that crime in the U.S. declined
significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend and belying widespread
perceptions that crime is rising.

A police vehicle is seen at Washington Circle in Foggy Bottom in Washington,
D.C. on Sept. 06, 2023.Craig Hudson / The Washington Post via Getty Images file

The new fourth-quarter numbers showed a 13% decline in murder in 2023 from 2022,
a 6% decline in reported violent crime and a 4% decline in reported property
crime. That’s based on data from around 13,000 law enforcement agencies,
policing about 82% of the U.S. population, that provided the FBI with data
through December.





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“It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen
likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded,”
said Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst who now studies crime trends.

In October, the FBI will release its final and most comprehensive look at crime
in 2023.

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Crime in almost every category went down across U.S. in 2023, FBI reports
02:00

Asher and other experts say the biggest factor behind the drop in crime may
simply be the resumption of anti-crime initiatives by local governments and
courts that had stopped during the pandemic.

“After a terrible period of underfunding and understaffing caused by the
pandemic, local governments have, by most measures, returned to pre-pandemic
levels,” wrote John Roman, a criminologist at the University of Chicago. In an
interview, Roman said, “The courts were closed, a lot of cops got sick, a lot of
police agencies told their officers not to interact with the public. Teachers
were not in schools, not working with kids.”



Asher said, “The tools that we ordinarily have used to interrupt these cycles of
violence were gone in 2020 [and] 2021.”

In a statement on Tuesday, President Joe Biden called the new numbers "good news
for the American people" and touted his efforts to combat gun violence.

"Keeping communities safe is my priority," he said. "While we've made major
progress, we still have more work to do."

Attorney General Merrick Garland also issued a statement praising the drop in
crime and noting that, in May 2021, the Justice Department launched a strategy
aimed at addressing the spike in violent crime that occurred during the
pandemic.

“Since then, our prosecutors, agents, and grant-making experts have worked in
close partnership with police departments and communities across the country to
go after the recidivists and gangs that are responsible for the greatest
violence; to seize illegal guns and deadly drugs; to make critical investments
in hiring more law enforcement officers; and to fund evidence-based, community
violence intervention initiatives,” he said.

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LAPD forms task force to combat 'burglary tourists' targeting neighborhoods
02:51

As NBC News previously reported, the drop in crime does not appear to be well
understood by large majorities of Americans, according to polls. A
Gallup poll in December found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are
worsening.



“The perception doesn’t match the actuality in a lot of places because people
are bad at perceiving risk,” Asher said, adding that both traditional and social
media tend to spotlight violence and disorder.

Roman noted that it’s been since 2001 that a majority of Americans have
continued to believe their communities are becoming more dangerous, even as
crime was dropping.

Roman also pointed out that “there is definitely more disorder in cities than
there was five years ago. I don’t think that’s up for dispute.”

However, he said, "People confuse disorder and crime, so the presence of a lot
of disorder can signal to regular folks that they are in a dangerous place, when
they aren’t necessarily in a dangerous place.”

According to Roman, crime rates are at a point now where we are essentially back
to the long-term trend from the last decade. “The question is will we go below
it,” he said. “I think we will. We have made huge investments in community-based
violence intervention that are really new and are of sufficient scale that they
could change things. The downside is that we are facing a police staffing crisis
that is very real.”


Ken Dilanian

Ken Dilanian is the justice and intelligence correspondent for NBC News, based
in Washington.



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