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Market Analysis


HOW CREDIT KARMA, ACQUIRED AMID COVID CHAOS, FARED IN ITS FIRST YEAR UNDER
INTUIT

Ryan Lawler@ryanlawler / Invalid DateTime•

cameraImage Credits: William_Potter (opens in a new window) / Getty Images

February 24, 2020, is a day Ken Lin will never forget. The Credit Karma CEO was
about to announce that the company he founded 13 years earlier was about to be
acquired for more than $7 billion. Meanwhile, the stock market was in free fall.

“I remember waking up and the Dow futures were down something like 600 points
because the COVID pieces were starting to hit the market,” Lin said. “I’m up at
5 o’clock in the morning, the Dow is flashing red … and we’re all like, ‘Are we
going to do this?’”



> “What had been a very profitable business for a very long time is all of a
> sudden very unprofitable, because you can’t pivot on a dime. We had a lot of
> decisions to make.” Ken Lin, Credit Karma CEO



Markets were getting jittery as it became clear the coronavirus had spread
beyond China’s borders as case numbers were multiplying in Italy and South
Korea. The S&P 500 fell 3.5% that day and kicked off a weeklong sell-off in
global securities as the WHO warned COVID-19 could soon become a global
pandemic.

“Needless to say, we all agreed that it was the right decision [to move forward]
and that all the externalities and unknowns at that point were immaterial,” Lin
said. “So we pushed forward with it and we got the deal signed and announced.”

By the time the deal closed — on December 3, one year ago — Credit Karma had
seen its business impacted by a tightening of the credit markets and had been
forced to divest its tax business after a Justice Department review.

But in the 12 months since, Credit Karma, which operates as a mostly independent
unit within Intuit, has seen a dramatic rebound in its business thanks in part
to a reversal in the financial markets, but also due to commercial adoption of
its Lightbox decision-making engine and acceleration of consumer interest from
integrations with Intuit products.


WEATHERING THE STORM

To say that COVID-19 was not kind to Credit Karma’s business is an
understatement. According to those inside the company, revenue dried up
virtually overnight in the early days of the pandemic.

Credit Karma primarily makes money by connecting banks and other lenders to
qualified borrowers who might want to open a new credit card, take out a
personal loan or refinance their mortgage, and it earns a referral fee in the
process. So when credit markets dried up amid pandemic uncertainty and banks
stopped lending, Credit Karma’s business took a direct hit.

That was something neither side accounted for when they signed on to do the
deal.

“We probably lost 60% of our revenue during that first COVID moment,” Lin said.
“What had been a very profitable business for a very long time is all of a
sudden very unprofitable, because you can’t pivot on a dime. We had a lot of
decisions to make.”

Those decisions were complicated by covenants in the acquisition agreement
Credit Karma signed, which said the company couldn’t dramatically alter its
business while the deal was undergoing regulatory review.

“Those covenants are written in such a way that our lawyers are looking at us
and our board is calling me to say we should be really careful. Technically, if
you pull back from marketing … what happened to our revenue [could be
considered] breaches in the contract,” Lin said.

Colleen McCreary, Credit Karma’s chief people officer, was tasked with helping
to navigate the impact on employees.

“I was the only person on the management team who had ever executed layoffs
before,” McCreary told me. “I had created a list of three paths. … But if we
want to choose the layoff path, let me tell you about the carnage that it leaves
behind. I really pushed the case that we can’t be taking people’s jobs.”

Instead of job cuts, Credit Karma issued pay cuts. It stopped recruiting,
stopped trying to backfill jobs and turned off any paid marketing. At the same
time, the organization worked hard to reassign employees whose jobs were not in
demand or necessary during the slowdown — including those in human resources and
talent acquisition.

“We announced pay cuts, and we actually moved people around,” McCreary said.
“When we shut down recruiting, I had 40 people in recruiting — and recruiting,
in particular, was one of the places that got completely massacred during that
time frame. So we moved them into product and business development and legal
operations, we moved them into copywriting, wherever I could put people. We did
whatever we could to save jobs.”

Credit Karma also offered exit packages to employees who didn’t want to stick
around. “If this is not for you and you want to quit now we’ll pay you for the
next two months. You should just quit today. Get off the bus, get out, go do
your thing,” McCreary said, arguing it was a better strategy than “to just have
a drip of people quitting.”

At the same time, the company reprioritized resources in ways that reflected the
reality of where most growth would come from during the early months of the
pandemic. They moved employees from two of their biggest businesses — credit
cards and personal loans — and moved them to focus on home and auto lending,
which at the time were small teams customers would still need.

From an employee retention standpoint, the strategy paid off; when the deal was
announced, employee headcount was around 1,300, and when the deal closed, it
stood at 1,290.


A TAXING DECISION

Even before the DOJ review, Credit Karma and Intuit knew the overlap in tax
products would be a problem for regulators. Intuit’s TurboTax had been the clear
market leader for tax preparation software for years before Credit Karma entered
the market with its own free online tax product in 2017.

“We knew they would have a question because we’re in the tax business, and
[Credit Karma] had just gotten into the tax business,” Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi
told me. “But we were not acquiring them because of the tax business. It was
frankly so infinitesimal that we knew it would raise a flag with the DOJ but we
also knew that our intent was always about creating a consumer platform far
beyond taxes.”

According to Goodarzi, part of the reason the DOJ review took so long was that
the agency was really trying to understand how the two companies fit together
and what it would mean for consumers, specifically in the tax area. Ultimately,
the Justice Department ruled the companies would have to divest Credit Karma Tax
to move forward with the acquisition.

“We never thought this Intuit-Credit Karma thing was about the tax business,”
Lin said. “They already had the biggest tax product and we were just getting
started.”

In the press release announcing Square’s acquisition of the business, the
company said Credit Karma Tax helped more than 2 million filers process their
tax return in the prior year. That’s compared with nearly 40 million returns
prepared with TurboTax in the same period.

According to Lin, in a financial space that is all about scale, the most
important part of the acquisition was combining its consumer credit data with
the large amount of income and asset data that Intuit had collected.

“Credit Karma historically has always had the credit side of a consumer’s
financial life, but Intuit has always had the assets, income and all the other
pieces,” he said. “When you put those two pieces together … you can get into
some really interesting products when it comes to helping consumers understand
the landscape and what’s available to them.”


A LINKEDIN MODEL FOR MANAGEMENT

There were clear synergies between the Credit Karma and Intuit operations, but
there was also a recognition that tightly integrating the companies and running
Credit Karma products under the Intuit umbrella might not be the best way to get
the most out of their strengths.

“Integration [is] just a euphemism for slowing things down. So we talked a lot
about how we are not going to integrate Credit Karma, we’re going to accelerate
Credit Karma,” Lin said.

To do that, they modeled the org structure in part on Microsoft’s purchase of
LinkedIn and the independence that unit was afforded after the acquisition
closed. Former LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner sits on the Intuit board and was
instrumental in helping design a playbook under which Credit Karma would operate
mostly independently from the rest of the Intuit business.

“The thing that we learned from Jeff and how they structured the deal with Satya
and Microsoft was that [they] aligned on objectives and aligned on priorities to
achieve those objectives,” Goodarzi said. But otherwise for LinkedIn, “There was
complete autonomy end to end.”

Of course, there are some areas where the companies must integrate as part of a
publicly traded company — like anything that includes financial controls or
compliance — but for most people at Credit Karma, little has changed over the
past year.

According to Rich Franks, who is the head of Credit Karma’s Lightbox group, “99%
of people that I interact with do not feel the presence of Intuit at all. I
think other than the leadership level, we’re all heading the same direction,
which is always going to be the case. Operationally, nothing has happened
differently because of that.”


OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACCELERATION

While the acquisition didn’t result in a change in organizational structure or a
combined workforce, both sides were opportunistic about finding ways in which
their products could accelerate growth between them.

“First and foremost, Ken and I align on objectives, both short and long term,
align on strategy and key priorities. Then we have a set within priorities, what
we call acceleration priorities, where we are putting platforms together,”
Goodarzi said.

In practice, that has resulted in work to accelerate growth of the Credit Karma
and Credit Karma Money products, as well as the exchange of data (with customer
consent) that will improve the unit’s ability to suggest credit products that
consumers will likely be approved for.

One of the first examples of this acceleration happened during tax season
earlier this year, when the teams connected Credit Karma Money to TurboTax in a
way that enabled customers to access their tax refund more quickly. This effort
was a huge push from both teams as they worked post-close to integrate the
products in time for tax season just a few months later.

“A tax refund tends to be the biggest paycheck for consumers, each and every
year. To be able to use Credit Karma money as a conduit to get you your money
faster is important,” Lin said.

He added that each year TurboTax sees roughly $100 billion in tax refunds, which
amounts to a huge opportunity to grow the Credit Karma user base. Already in the
first year, TurboTax and Turbo customers accounted for 40% of new Credit Karma
members.

Another area in which the companies have accelerated development is less visible
to users but might be more impactful — and that’s the way it’s using TurboTax
data to improve its machine learning engine Lightbox.

Lightbox helps lenders find qualified borrowers by allowing them to specify
certain underwriting criteria and then connect them with Credit Karma users who
have a high likelihood of being approved for a new credit product.

Prior to the Intuit acquisition, Credit Karma made most of those matches based
on data it knew about a consumer’s credit history. But over time, lenders have
become more sophisticated in their underwriting algorithms, in some cases using
hundreds of data points to score potential borrowers. Having a more complete
picture of the customer’s financial life, therefore, helps Credit Karma offer
better products to its users.

“We knew that credit was roughly 70% of the underwriting decision, but income,
assets and the ability to pay are the other 30%,” Lin said. “Now with consumer
consent, we have this full picture of the consumer’s financial life that powers
more certainty in the space.”


A RETURN TO GROWTH

For Credit Karma, 2020 was a challenging year. But after a year at Intuit, it’s
reporting record results again.

During the most recent quarter — Intuit’s fiscal Q1 2022 — Credit Karma
contributed $418 million in revenue. That’s compared to just $144 million and
$316 million in its first two quarters as part of Intuit. That growth was driven
by strength in personal loans and credit cards, as lending in those areas
continues to pick up.

The company expects that growth to continue, as it revised full-year revenue
guidance for the unit to $1.540 billion to $1.565 billion, up from $1.345
billion to $1.380 billion.

With another tax season ahead in which the groups can apply lessons from the
previous year, as well as improvement in products like Lightbox and Credit Karma
Money, the team is poised to capitalize on Intuit’s investment in the business.
And as long as it does, Intuit will continue to let it operate autonomously.

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