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Lead


4 TRICKS TO AVOID OVERCONFIDENCE


SCIENCE SHOWS THAT PEOPLE ARE LOUSY AT GAUGING THEIR OWN LEVEL OF COMPETENCE.
TAKE OFF THE ROSE-TINTED GLASSES WITH THESE TRICKS.

 * Shape
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By Jessica Stillman, Contributor, Inc.com@EntryLevelRebel
Getty Images


The Dunning-Kruger Effect is one of my favorite business-relevant psychological
ideas because it explains so much. Even if you've never heard the term, you've
no doubt experienced the basic idea in action--the people who are least
competent tend to be most sure of themselves, while those with genuine skills
are frequently wracked with doubts about their abilities.

The idea was laid out by a pair of psychologists named--you guessed it!--David
Dunning and Justin Kruger, but they're not the first to notice this bias.
British philosopher Bertrand Russell perhaps summed it up best many years
earlier: "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the
intelligent are full of doubt."

The only trouble with the Dunning-Kruger effect? While it's a wildly satisfying
explanation for some of the most annoying office behavior (and individuals)
you're likely to encounter, it also sadly probably applies to you. If
psychologists are right, all of us have a pretty lousy grasp of the limits of
our own competence.

Is there any way to fix that? Can you escape this cognitive bias and gain a
clear-eyed understanding of your own strengths and weaknesses, so you can work
on the latter and lean on the former? Yup, reports Dunning himself in a recent
Reddit AMA ("Ask Me Anything"). In the course of the conversation, the Cornell
psychologist and co-discoverer of my fave psychological theory explains how to
avoid its pernicious effects.


1. ALWAYS BE LEARNING



His first suggestion is the most obvious. "Get competent. Always be learning,"
Dunning urges.


2. BEWARE BEGINNINGS

The second important point if you're looking to avoid the Dunning-Kruger effect
is to be aware of when it's most likely to strike so you can be extra careful to
gather relevant information and expertise at those times. When is prime time for
DKE? In short, when you're new to a skill or topic.



"Just last month I had to buy a car, for only the fourth time in my life.
Knowing this is an uncommon thing for me to do, I spent a lot of time
[researching] cars...and also how to buy them," Dunning says, offering himself
as an example.


3. SLOW DOWN

Unless you're a world-class expert (and very few of us are), fast decisions are
generally more biased decisions, so beware the Dunning-Kruger effect when you're
making quick calls, instructs Dunning.

"Our most recent research also suggests one should be wary of quick and
impulsive decisions...that those who get caught in DKE errors less are those who
deliberate over them, at least a little. People who jump to conclusions are the
most prone to overconfident error," he explains. "I have found it useful to
explicitly consider how I might be wrong...in a decision. What's wrong with this
car deal that seems so attractive? What have I left out in this response about
avoiding the DKE?"


4. KNOW WHEN TO BE CONFIDENT

Dunning stresses that confidence isn't always unmerited and can sometimes be
extremely useful, for, say, "a general on the day of battle." But in-the-moment
confidence should be rooted in lots of preparatory self-doubt, learning, and
consideration. "Before that day, I want a cautious general who over-plans--one
who wants more troops, more ordnance, better contingency plans--so that he or
she is best prepared for the day of battle," Dunning says. "I think that analogy
works for athletes, too. They don't use confidence to become complacent,
but...to put in the extra effort and strategizing that will help them excel."


Dec 1, 2014
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of
Inc.com.



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