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 1. Home
 2. News
 3. When to Expect the Coldest Day of the Year


WHEN TO EXPECT THE COLDEST DAY OF THE YEAR

Courtesy of NOAA, Sheridan Hurd

To give you a better idea of the coldest time of year, on average, for your
area, NCEI has created “Coldest Day of the Year” maps for the contiguous United
States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The maps are derived from the 1991–2020
U.S. Climate Normals—NCEI’s 30-year averages of climatological variables
including the average low temperature for every day. From these values,
scientists can identify which day of the year, on average, has the lowest
minimum temperature, referred to here as the “coldest day.”



 

The contiguous United States map reveals several interesting regional
differences across the country. Most prominently, the portion of the United
States west of the continental divide (the West) typically reaches its
climatological coldest day in December, whereas most of the East reaches its
seasonal minimum in January. The West is profoundly influenced by the flow of
moderating air masses with clouds and precipitation coming off the Pacific Ocean
and aligns more closely to the seasonal solar cycle, while the East is
responding to cold air flowing south from Canada that is modified by snow cover
reflecting solar radiation away from the surface. 

Pockets of later coldest dates near the Rockies and Cascades/Sierra Nevada often
correspond to stations located in deep valleys where calm winds and snow cover
cause temperatures to become colder than nearby higher ground, a condition
called a temperature inversion. Alaska tends to have January coldest day
normals, while the low latitude islands of Hawaii and Puerto Rico can have
normal coldest days later in February and even in early March. 

there has been a small but noticeable shift of the coldest day to dates 3–6 days
later or more at many stations in the U.S. east of the Rocky MountainsCompared
to the 1981-2010 version of this map, there has been a small but noticeable
shift of the coldest day to dates 3–6 days later or more at many stations in the
U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. This is not surprising given that early winter
warming is more pronounced than late winter warming between the new and previous
Normals periods in this region. While the far northwestern U.S. also shows a
shift of the coldest day to a later time, the rest of the western U.S. does not
show a consistent pattern, with some stations actually shifting to earlier
coldest day times.

Temperature Normals are important indicators used by many U.S. economic sectors
for planning and making decisions for periods of time beyond the range of
weather forecasts. Knowing the probability of low temperatures can help energy
companies prepare for peak heating demand. They are also useful planning tools
for the healthcare, construction, and tourism industries. You may even want to
check the Normals before planning your next event or vacation!

While the map shows the coldest days of the year on average throughout the
United States, this year’s coldest day may vary from the normal based on actual
weather and seasonal climate patterns. For prediction of your actual local daily
temperature, and to see how it matches up with the Climate Normals, check out
your local forecast office on Weather.gov(link is external).

Also see the Climate.gov interactive map(link is external).


PUBLISHED

November 6, 2015
Updated Date
January 21, 2022

Updated to reflect the new U.S. Climate Normals of 1991-2020.


RELATED LINKS

1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals
U.S. Climate Atlas
Climate Data Online


ARTICLE TAGS

Climate
Seasons
Air Temperature
Maps
Economic Resources
North America
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