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PERSPECTIVE: THE EVOLVING VIOLENT EXTREMIST THREAT



By Daryl Johnson Alejandro Beutel
February 14, 2024
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The 2024 Presidential election season is now underway and as campaign rhetoric
heats up, so do the passions of many citizens across the political spectrum.
While this time is an exercise in the fundamental values and institutions of
democracy, as two seasoned analysts of American domestic violent extremism, we
are also aware it is a period when the risk of political violence is elevated.  

While much of this attention is understandably and rightfully directed toward
the threat posed by far-right actors—which, in our assessment remains the
biggest domestic threat to the U.S. homeland—it is important to not lose sight
of potentially dangerous actors on the far-left, either. Their intent and
capacity for violence, including lethal attacks, cannot be overlooked, or
overestimated. 

Who Are Violent Far-Left Extremists? 

Before describing our assessment, first, a word about who violent far-leftists
are. When speaking of the “far-left,” we’re referring to actors who hold beliefs
that favor social egalitarianism but are otherwise hostile to the procedural and
behavioral norms of liberal democracy, namely manifesting ideas and behaviors
that are illiberal and/or authoritarian. Our research suggests there are four
main sub-ideological types of U.S. violent far-leftists: 

 * Extremist strands of left-wing Black nationalists 
 * Left-wing Anarchist extremists 
 * Anti-fascist extremists (aka “antifa”) 
 * Ecological extremists 

We discuss the specifics who these actors are and what they believe in our
recent publication on domestic violent far-leftist extremism. What’s important
to note here is that while sometimes overlapping with each other in terms
movement supporters and beliefs, they nevertheless represent distinct
sub-currents within a wider far-left milieu. In other words, violent
far-leftists are not a monolithic and cannot be reduced to a single belief like
antifa. 

Background and Drivers of Mobilization 

Violent far-leftists were extremely active during the Cold War, constituting the
pre-dominant terrorist threat during the 1970s. After the dissolution of the
USSR, violent far-leftist attacks were overtaken in terms of casualty counts by
violent far-right and violent Islamist actors in the 1990s to the mid 2010s. For
a short period of time between the late 1990s and early 2000s, violent
ecological extremists, in the form of animal rights and environmental
extremists, constituted the primary threat. By the early to mid-2000s this
activity sharply declined due to a combination of societal backlash and law
enforcement responses.  

Since the mid-2010s, there has been a resurgence of far-leftist armed
mobilization. They have been energized by a variety of issues such as minority
rights, growing negative impacts of climate change, economic inequality, threats
to democratic norms and institutions, a desire to counter-mobilize against a
resurgent far-right movement, and most recently, violence in Israel and the
Palestinian Territories. 

Modus Operandi 

As we pointed out earlier, violent far-leftists manifest sub-ideological
diversity. This is important to note because their underlying belief sets
largely inform targeting behaviors. For example, eco-extremists will be
primarily focused on specific issues and events related to climate change and
environmental damage, whereas left-wing Black nationalists are largely mobilized
by events related to police brutality and overreach. 

With that in mind, however, violent far-leftists often cooperate across
sub-ideological lines where they perceive intersectional struggles (where issue
interests overlap). The intense high-profile opposition to the planned “Cop
City” facility in Atlanta is illustrative in this regard. Local reporting
suggests the opposition group called the Forest Defenders is an ad hoc coalition
of actors expressing Marxist, left-wing anarchist, and anti-fascist beliefs,
driven by a combination of ecological, anti-police, and racial justice views.
While most of their activities have been non-violent, some group supporters have
used violence to advance their cause. 

The general trend of violent far-leftist targeting has been directed at
property. Far-leftists tend to favor a variety of physical “direct action”
behaviors that, according to one online guide to direct action written by
anonymous movement insiders, “can take many different forms, from occupying
buildings or blocking roads, to more disruptive actions such as property damage
or violence.” The more unlawful and physically destructive behaviors include
acts of harassment, vandalism, sabotage, arson, and assault using melee weapons
or no weapons. In more extreme cases, detailed in our publication, this can
include stabbings, shootings, vehicular assault, kidnappings, and explosions. 

To the extent that far-left violence is directed at people, it is mostly and
intentionally non-fatal. This is due to operational and ideological preferences
that favor inflicting economic damage (e.g., ending capitalism) and bringing
attention to specific issues rather than harming civilians (though an exception
to this trend is fatal attacks targeting police officers). Yet, we have noted in
previous assessments, there are also signs of possible growing intent to kill
non-police civilians, suggesting internal constraints against generating
fatalities are eroding.  

This erosion has to do largely with societal factors (e.g. counter-mobilization
against armed far-rightists) but is also enabled by far-leftists’ ideologically
and operationally motivated eschewal of formal organizational structures. In
addition to mitigating the risk of law enforcement infiltration, due to a belief
in radical egalitarianism, many violent far-leftists reject the idea of
hierarchical groups altogether. The lack of command-and-control structures that
can constrain the impulses and behaviors of otherwise fringe individuals,
enables them to slide into violence easier. 

Forecast 

We assess a substantially increased risk of social turmoil and political
violence by violent far-left extremists for at least the next 12 months as the
United States enters its national election season. Political tensions arising
from many of the issues driving far-left mobilization are intensifying and
exacerbated by the likely presidential candidacy of incendiary former President
Donald Trump. Beyond the effects of former President Trump, the United States
has been confronted a deeper and longstanding socio-political polarization.
Coupled with growing multi-faceted domestic and international issues and
conflicts, this will continue to fuel rallies and civil disturbances by both the
far left and far right. Such gatherings could lead to another round of violent
outbreaks between competing protest groups, or worse. Competing armed political
assemblies held near each other are at an especially elevated risk of becoming
violent. 

Finally, in terms of operational practices, there is nothing to suggest that
violent far-leftists will change their general organizational approach;
decentralized and leaderless structures are used to avoid law enforcement
scrutiny. Violent far-right extremists who fuel counter-mobilization from
violent far-left extremists will be especially energized in 2024. 

 * Tags
 * 2024 Presidential election season
 * perspective
 * Violent Extremist Threat


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Daryl Johnson Alejandro Beutel
Daryl Johnson is one of the foremost experts on domestic extremist groups in the
US. Beginning his career as a civilian in the US Army, Johnson has held a number
of government positions, most recently as senior analyst at the Department of
Homeland Security. He is currently the founder of DT Analytics, a private
consulting firm for law enforcement. He is also regularly cited, featured, or
quoted in media covering domestic extremist groups in the US, including the New
York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, National Public
Radio, MSNBC, CNN, and NBC Nightly News, among many others. He is the author of
“Hateland: A Long, Hard Look at America's Extremist Heart" (Prometheus Books,
2019) and "Right-Wing Resurgence: How a Domestic Terrorism Threat Is Being
Ignored" (Rowman & Littlefield, 2012). Johnson is also a free lance writer for
various media and civil rights organizations. In 2012, he testified before the
Senate Judiciary Committee on hate crimes and the threat of domestic extremism.
|| Alejandro J. Beutel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the New Lines Institute,
specializing in the study and analysis of violent and non-violent Islamist and
far-right movements. He is also a Research Affiliate at the National Consortium
for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). From August 2017
to March 1, 2019 he was a Senior Research Analyst at Southern Poverty Law
Center’s (SPLC) Intelligence Project where he monitored U.S. far-right extremism
and hate, focusing primarily on the anti-Muslim and antigovernmental “Patriot”
movements. Prior to SPLC, Beutel was a Researcher for Countering Violent
Extremism at START, focused on the narratives of violent U.S. far-right and
Al-Qaeda and ISIS-associated actors. In 2014, Beutel was the Policy and Research
Engagement Fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU),
an applied research think-tank specializing in the study and promotion of
evidence-based development strategies for positive civic, social, and political
engagement outcomes for American Muslim communities. Beutel graduated from the
University of Maryland, College Park in 2013 with a Master of Public Policy. He
also has a Bachelor of Science in International Relations and Diplomacy from
Seton Hall University in South Orange, NJ.


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