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HERE'S WHAT UPCOMING WINTER MAY HAVE IN STORE FOR MASSACHUSETTS, NEW ENGLAND

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Updated: 6:34 AM EST Dec 20, 2023
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Harvey Leonard
Chief Meteorologist Emeritus
A.J. Burnett
Meteorologist
Here's what upcoming winter may have in store for Massachusetts, New England
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Updated: 6:34 AM EST Dec 20, 2023
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✕
5 AT 4:00. LOOK WHO WE HAVE BACK. I MEAN, COME ON. THE BIG QUESTION WE’VE BEEN
WONDERING, ALL OF US HERE, WILL THIS WINTER BE ANOTHER SNOW DUD OR WILL OUR
SHOVELS BE WORKING OVERTIME OR MIKE CASE? THE SNOWBLOWER? I DIDN’T USE IT AT ALL
LAST YEAR. CHIEF METEOROLOGIST EMERITUS HARVARD LEONARD BACK WITH US. ALL RIGHT,
SO, HARVEY, THERE’S A LOT OF INGREDIENTS THAT ARE GOING INTO THIS YEAR’S WINTER
WEATHER. OUR ABSOLUTELY LUTELY AS YOU’RE GOING TO SEE NOW, WE HAVE EL NINO
WARMING WINTERS AND OCEAN HEAT WAVES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS IN PLAY THIS
YEAR AND SOME WE’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IT COULD ALL MAKE FOR A VERY INTERESTING
WINTER IN NEW ENGLAND. IF THIS YEAR GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN, WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT
MORE VARIABILITY AND AT LEAST PERIODS OF INTENSE COLD AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW AT
LEAST MORE THAN LAST YEAR ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE WARMEST WINTERS ON RECORD.
LAST YEAR, WE WENT TO THREE EXPERTS IN THE FIELD OF LONG RANGE FORECASTING TO
GET THEIR TAKE ON WHAT WINTER IN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIKE THIS YEAR. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A STRONG EL NINO AS WE HEAD INTO WINTER. PERHAPS ONE OF
THE STRONGEST EVER RECORDED, WHICH HAS LED TO MILDER WINTERS IN THE PAST. BUT
BUT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHAT WE CALL THE PACIFIC DECADAL
OSCILLATION, AREN’T BEHAVING LIKE WE’D EXPECT DURING AN EL NINO. THERE’S NEVER
BEEN A CASE IN RECORDED HISTORY OF A STRONG EL NINO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
NEGATIVE PDO. SO THAT HAS A LOT OF US SCRATCHING OUR HEADS RIGHT NOW. AND IT
MIGHT SEEM STRANGE, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION, SOME 10 TO 25 MILES ABOVE THE
EQUATOR CAN ACTUALLY IMPACT THE CHANCES THAT COLD AIR FROM FROM INSIDE THE POLAR
VORTEX SPILLS SOUTH, PUTTING US IN THE DEEP FREEZE. BUT IT CAN BE EITHER
NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE OR EASTERLY OR WESTERLY. SO LAST YEAR WAS WESTERLY. THIS
YEAR IS EASTERLY. EASTERLIES THOUGHT TO FAVOR HIGH LATITUDE, BLOCKING COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN US. DR. JUDAH COHEN, A FAMILIAR VOICE FOR OUR WINTER
WEATHER FORECAST, SAYS THE SIGNALS HE’S LOOKED AT FOR YEARS ARE ALSO MIXED.
RIGHT NOW, THE ARCTIC PREDICTORS ARE NOT NOT STRONG ONE WAY OR THE OTHER,
LEAVING DR. COHEN WITH A VERY DIFFICULT WINTER FORECAST. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THIS
YEAR THERE ARE THERE ARE A LOT MORE PLAYERS INVOLVED. THERE ARE MORE FACTORS
THAT ARE COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON A WINNER ADD TO THIS ATMOSPHERIC
CONFUSION, ANOTHER FACTOR THAT’S RELATIVELY NEW TO US, JUST AS TEMPERATURES ON
LAND ARE GETTING WARMER, SO TOO ARE THE OCEANS, LEADING TO A PHENOMENON CALLED
OCEAN HEATWAVES. BASICALLY, AN OCEAN HEAT WAVE IS JUST AN AREA OF THE OCEAN
WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR.
THERE IS A HUGE AREA IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS RUNNING WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND
ALSO MOST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALSO OR WE CAN SAY IS RUNNING A FEVER.
HIGHER OCEAN TEMPERATURES MEAN MORE EVAPORATION AND MORE EVAPORATION MEANS MORE
ENERGY FOR STORMS. ANY NOR’EASTER DOES GET ROLLING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
IT’S GOING TO HAVE A LOT MORE FUEL TO DROP, RUN OFF FROM THAT WARM WATER. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS TOGETHER REPRESENT A SORT OF A PACKAGE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN. WE
WITNESSED BEFORE IN AS LONG AS HUMANS HAVE BEEN RECORDING THESE THINGS. SO WHAT
DOES THIS ALL MEAN TO THESE EXPERTS? THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CHANGE ABILITY. I
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE COLD SHOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AND I
DO THINK WE ARE IN A MUCH BETTER POSITION THIS YEAR FOR SNOWSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
THAT COME UP ALONG THE EAST COAST THAN WE WERE LAST YEAR. EVEN TO GET TO 36IN,
YOU KNOW, WE’RE NOT GOING TO GET THERE IN 1 TO 2 INCH BITES. I THINK WE’RE GOING
TO HAVE TO HAVE AT LEAST EVEN TO GET EVEN THAT, EVEN THOUGH THAT’S BELOW NORMAL,
AT LEAST ONE FOOT OR MAYBE A TWO FOOT OR MY PREDICTION, ONCE PEOPLE ASKING IS
FOR SURPRISES AND WEIRDNESS. OH, YEAH, SURPRISES AND WEIRDNESS. NOW, YOU DID
HEAR DR. COHEN SAY 36IN THE MODEL THAT HIS COMPANY RUNS IS FORECASTING 36IN FOR
BOSTON. BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT THINGS TO HIGHLIGHT. FIRST, THAT
USUALLY MEANS INLAND AREAS END UP WITH MORE. HOWEVER, 36IN IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
BOSTON. NOW, DR. COHEN ALSO MENTIONED THAT HE THINKS WE COULD GET TO THAT 36
INCH TOTAL IN LARGER CHUNKS, MEANING A COUPLE OF HIGHER IMPACT STORMS COULD BE
IN THE CARDS THIS WINTER. OKAY. WELL, THAT’S A LOT MORE THAN LAST YEAR. THAT’S
FOR SURE. THE KIDS WOULD LIKE A COUPLE OF SNOW DAYS. NOT TO BE SHOCKED IF YOU
DON’T GET TO USE YOUR SNOW BLOWER THIS WINTER. I LIKE THAT. I’M READY. I’LL GET
IT OUT, GET IT GASSED UP. ALL RIGHT, HARVEY, GREAT TO SE


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Here's what upcoming winter may have in store for Massachusetts, New England
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Updated: 6:34 AM EST Dec 20, 2023
Infinite Scroll Enabled
Harvey Leonard
Chief Meteorologist Emeritus
A.J. Burnett
Meteorologist

On the heels of one of the warmest winters on record last year, StormTeam 5 went
to three experts in the field of long-range weather forecasting to get their
take on what winter in Massachusetts and New England will be like this year.All
three cited signals that indicate a highly variable season is ahead. Dan
Leonard, long-range forecaster, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover,
MA"If this year goes according to plan, we should have a lot more variability
and at least periods of intense cold and perhaps some snow, at least more than
last year," long-range forecaster Dan Leonard of The Weather Company, an IBM
Business in Andover said.The El Niño cycle, which typically brings an active
southern jet stream and stormy weather to the southern continental United States
and milder-than-average temperatures across the northern tier, kicked into gear
during this past summer."El Niño is well established. It looks like we're going
to have a strong El Niño as we head into winter," he said.But this winter’s El
Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded. The handful of very strong El
Niños in the past have led to milder winters in in New England. On the other
hand, conditions over the northern Pacific Ocean that make up another weather
pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, aren't behaving like
we'd expect during an El Niño."There's never been a case in recorded history of
a strong El Niño in conjunction with a negative PDO. So that has a lot of us
scratching our heads right now," Leonard said. Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of
Seasonal Weather Forecasting, Verisk AER, Lexington, MAWhile it may seem
strange, the wind direction some 10 to 25 miles high in the atmosphere, above
the equator, can actually impact the chances that cold air from inside the polar
vortex will spill southward, putting us in the deep freeze. This weather pattern
is called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO."(The QBO) can be positive or
negative, easterly or westerly. Last year it was westerly and this year it is
easterly. Easterly starts to favor high latitude blocking and colder
temperatures in the eastern U.S.," according to Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of
Seasonal Weather Forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research in
Lexington, MA.Dr. Cohen is a familiar voice for our winter weather forecasts and
says the signals he's looked at for years, are also mixed."Right now the Arctic
predictors are not strong one way or the other I'd say we’re not seeing a strong
signal," Cohen said.That leaves Dr. Cohen with a very difficult winter
forecast."It does seem like this year there are a lot more players involved and
more factors that are could have a strong influence on our winter," Cohen
said.Dr. Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist, Woodwell Climate Research Center,
Woods Hole, MAAdd to this atmospheric confusion another factor that's relatively
new to us: Just as temperatures on land are getting warmer, so too are
temperatures in our oceans, leading to a phenomenon called "ocean heat
waves.""Basically, an ocean heat wave is an area of the ocean where the
temperatures are much above normal for that place and time of year," Dr.
Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in
Woods Hole said."If you look at a map of those temperature differences from
normal, you would see that there is a huge area in the North Pacific that is
running way above normal. And most of the North Atlantic Ocean is also 'running
a fever,'" Francis said.Higher ocean temperatures mean more evaporation and more
evaporation means more energy for storms."What happened in the North Atlantic
this past year, I'd say, is really quite breathtaking. To see the entire North
Atlantic so warm and exceeding the previous record by such a large amount. And
if any nor'easter does get rolling along the Eastern Seaboard, it's going to
have a lot more fuel to draw from the US from that warm water," Francis
said."All of these factors together represent sort of a package that has never
been witnessed before in as long as humans have been recording these things,"
she said. "So we're really kind of in uncharted territory in terms of what it
means for the winter weather across the United States."So what does this all
mean to these experts?Dan Leonard: "I think if I had to take a position here
with the PDO in a negative phase that we will have a lot more activity this
winter than we would ordinarily have during a strong El Niño winter. There will
be a lot of changeability. I think there will be some pretty impressive cold
shots across New England, and I do think we are in a much better position this
year for snow storms especially that come up along the East Coast than we were
last year at this time."Dr. Judah Cohen: "Even to get to 36 inches, you know,
we're not going to get there in one to two-inch bites. We'll have a one-footer,
at least one, or maybe a two-footer."Dr. Jennifer Francis: "There (are) so many
uncertain factors occurring this year that really all bets are off in terms of
what we're going to get. My prediction when people ask me is for surprises and
weirdness."
NEEDHAM, Mass. —

On the heels of one of the warmest winters on record last year, StormTeam 5 went
to three experts in the field of long-range weather forecasting to get their
take on what winter in Massachusetts and New England will be like this year.

All three cited signals that indicate a highly variable season is ahead.

Advertisement

DAN LEONARD, LONG-RANGE FORECASTER, THE WEATHER COMPANY, AN IBM BUSINESS,
ANDOVER, MA

"If this year goes according to plan, we should have a lot more variability and
at least periods of intense cold and perhaps some snow, at least more than last
year," long-range forecaster Dan Leonard of The Weather Company, an IBM Business
in Andover said.

The El Niño cycle, which typically brings an active southern jet stream and
stormy weather to the southern continental United States and milder-than-average
temperatures across the northern tier, kicked into gear during this past summer.

Hearst Owned
El Nino "well established" heading into winter 2023-24.

"El Niño is well established. It looks like we're going to have a strong El Niño
as we head into winter," he said.


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Body dragged by bear after Massachusetts man killed in crash on I-91, state
police say

But this winter’s El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded. The
handful of very strong El Niños in the past have led to milder winters in in New
England. On the other hand, conditions over the northern Pacific Ocean that make
up another weather pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO,
aren't behaving like we'd expect during an El Niño.

Hearst Owned
"Negative PDO" pattern not usual with El Nino.

"There's never been a case in recorded history of a strong El Niño in
conjunction with a negative PDO. So that has a lot of us scratching our heads
right now," Leonard said.

DR. JUDAH COHEN, DIRECTOR OF SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTING, VERISK AER,
LEXINGTON, MA

While it may seem strange, the wind direction some 10 to 25 miles high in the
atmosphere, above the equator, can actually impact the chances that cold air
from inside the polar vortex will spill southward, putting us in the deep
freeze. This weather pattern is called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO.

"(The QBO) can be positive or negative, easterly or westerly. Last year it was
westerly and this year it is easterly. Easterly starts to favor high latitude
blocking and colder temperatures in the eastern U.S.," according to Dr. Judah
Cohen, Director of Seasonal Weather Forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and
Environmental Research in Lexington, MA.

Dr. Cohen is a familiar voice for our winter weather forecasts and says the
signals he's looked at for years, are also mixed.

Hearst Owned
Temperature outlook for winter 2023-24 (data: Verisk AER)
Hearst Owned
Precipitation outlook for winter 2023-24 (data: Verisk AER)

"Right now the Arctic predictors are not strong one way or the other I'd say
we’re not seeing a strong signal," Cohen said.

That leaves Dr. Cohen with a very difficult winter forecast.

"It does seem like this year there are a lot more players involved and more
factors that are could have a strong influence on our winter," Cohen said.

DR. JENNIFER FRANCIS, SENIOR SCIENTIST, WOODWELL CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTER, WOODS
HOLE, MA

Add to this atmospheric confusion another factor that's relatively new to us:
Just as temperatures on land are getting warmer, so too are temperatures in our
oceans, leading to a phenomenon called "ocean heat waves."

"Basically, an ocean heat wave is an area of the ocean where the temperatures
are much above normal for that place and time of year," Dr. Jennifer Francis,
Senior Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Woods Hole said.

"If you look at a map of those temperature differences from normal, you would
see that there is a huge area in the North Pacific that is running way above
normal. And most of the North Atlantic Ocean is also 'running a fever,'" Francis
said.

Higher ocean temperatures mean more evaporation and more evaporation means more
energy for storms.

"What happened in the North Atlantic this past year, I'd say, is really quite
breathtaking. To see the entire North Atlantic so warm and exceeding the
previous record by such a large amount. And if any nor'easter does get rolling
along the Eastern Seaboard, it's going to have a lot more fuel to draw from the
US from that warm water," Francis said.

"All of these factors together represent sort of a package that has never been
witnessed before in as long as humans have been recording these things," she
said. "So we're really kind of in uncharted territory in terms of what it means
for the winter weather across the United States."

SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN TO THESE EXPERTS?

Dan Leonard: "I think if I had to take a position here with the PDO in a
negative phase that we will have a lot more activity this winter than we would
ordinarily have during a strong El Niño winter. There will be a lot of
changeability. I think there will be some pretty impressive cold shots across
New England, and I do think we are in a much better position this year for snow
storms especially that come up along the East Coast than we were last year at
this time."

Dr. Judah Cohen: "Even to get to 36 inches, you know, we're not going to get
there in one to two-inch bites. We'll have a one-footer, at least one, or maybe
a two-footer."

Dr. Jennifer Francis: "There (are) so many uncertain factors occurring this year
that really all bets are off in terms of what we're going to get. My prediction
when people ask me is for surprises and weirdness."


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