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Skip to content NOWCAST NewsCenter 5 at 5:30 Live Now Menu * Search * Homepage * Local News * Weather * Interactive Radar * Forecasting Our Future * Closings * Commitment 2024 * 5 Alert Traffic * Chronicle * National News * Get the Facts * Matter of Fact * 5 Investigates * Very Local * Your Health * Your Money * Ben Has Your Back * Sports * Boston Marathon * Entertainment * Project CommUNITY * Community * CityLine * 5 For Good * ulocal * News We Love * Upload * Homes * Better Money Boston (Ad) * Stay and Play * Editorials * News Team * Contact * Advertise with WCVB * MeTV * Contests * Internships * Privacy Notice * Terms of Use * 75°Weather * Search Breaking News: Crash near Mass. highway causes wires to fall across road 49 MIN Boston, MA02108 75° Mostly Cloudy Chance of precipitation 6% Change MORE 1 / 2 Press enter to search Type to Search SEARCH LOCATION BY ZIP CODE ZIP CURRENT LOCATION Boston, MA 02108 Advertisement RECOMMENDED * How Amelia Earhart’s disappearance influenced future aviators * Body dragged by bear after Massachusetts man killed in crash on I-91, state police say * Karen Read murder trial: 2nd week of testimony begins * 2024 Solar eclipse sends parts of New England into total darkness * Dozens of restaurants taking part in Boston Asian Restaurant Week * Car hits forklift inside Boston's historic Fenway Park, driver arrested * Brittney Griner still adjusting after Russian prison ordeal. WNBA star details experience in book * Denial and uncertainty looming over Biden-Trump rematch 6 months out from Election Day HERE'S WHAT UPCOMING WINTER MAY HAVE IN STORE FOR MASSACHUSETTS, NEW ENGLAND Share * * * Copy Link Copy {copyShortcut} to copy Link copied! Updated: 6:34 AM EST Dec 20, 2023 Infinite Scroll Enabled Harvey Leonard Chief Meteorologist Emeritus A.J. Burnett Meteorologist Here's what upcoming winter may have in store for Massachusetts, New England Share * * * Copy Link Copy {copyShortcut} to copy Link copied! Updated: 6:34 AM EST Dec 20, 2023 Infinite Scroll Enabled Video Player is loading. Play Video PlaySkip BackwardSkip Forward Mute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded: 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind liveLIVE Remaining Time -0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters * Chapters Descriptions * descriptions off, selected Captions * captions settings, opens captions settings dialog * captions off, selected Audio Track Picture-in-PictureFullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. TextColorWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanOpacityOpaqueSemi-TransparentText BackgroundColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanOpacityOpaqueSemi-TransparentTransparentCaption Area BackgroundColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanOpacityTransparentSemi-TransparentOpaque Font Size50%75%100%125%150%175%200%300%400%Text Edge StyleNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop shadowFont FamilyProportional Sans-SerifMonospace Sans-SerifProportional SerifMonospace SerifCasualScriptSmall Caps Reset restore all settings to the default valuesDone Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement ✕ 5 AT 4:00. LOOK WHO WE HAVE BACK. I MEAN, COME ON. THE BIG QUESTION WE’VE BEEN WONDERING, ALL OF US HERE, WILL THIS WINTER BE ANOTHER SNOW DUD OR WILL OUR SHOVELS BE WORKING OVERTIME OR MIKE CASE? THE SNOWBLOWER? I DIDN’T USE IT AT ALL LAST YEAR. CHIEF METEOROLOGIST EMERITUS HARVARD LEONARD BACK WITH US. ALL RIGHT, SO, HARVEY, THERE’S A LOT OF INGREDIENTS THAT ARE GOING INTO THIS YEAR’S WINTER WEATHER. OUR ABSOLUTELY LUTELY AS YOU’RE GOING TO SEE NOW, WE HAVE EL NINO WARMING WINTERS AND OCEAN HEAT WAVES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS IN PLAY THIS YEAR AND SOME WE’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IT COULD ALL MAKE FOR A VERY INTERESTING WINTER IN NEW ENGLAND. IF THIS YEAR GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN, WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT MORE VARIABILITY AND AT LEAST PERIODS OF INTENSE COLD AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW AT LEAST MORE THAN LAST YEAR ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE WARMEST WINTERS ON RECORD. LAST YEAR, WE WENT TO THREE EXPERTS IN THE FIELD OF LONG RANGE FORECASTING TO GET THEIR TAKE ON WHAT WINTER IN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIKE THIS YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A STRONG EL NINO AS WE HEAD INTO WINTER. PERHAPS ONE OF THE STRONGEST EVER RECORDED, WHICH HAS LED TO MILDER WINTERS IN THE PAST. BUT BUT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHAT WE CALL THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION, AREN’T BEHAVING LIKE WE’D EXPECT DURING AN EL NINO. THERE’S NEVER BEEN A CASE IN RECORDED HISTORY OF A STRONG EL NINO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVE PDO. SO THAT HAS A LOT OF US SCRATCHING OUR HEADS RIGHT NOW. AND IT MIGHT SEEM STRANGE, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION, SOME 10 TO 25 MILES ABOVE THE EQUATOR CAN ACTUALLY IMPACT THE CHANCES THAT COLD AIR FROM FROM INSIDE THE POLAR VORTEX SPILLS SOUTH, PUTTING US IN THE DEEP FREEZE. BUT IT CAN BE EITHER NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE OR EASTERLY OR WESTERLY. SO LAST YEAR WAS WESTERLY. THIS YEAR IS EASTERLY. EASTERLIES THOUGHT TO FAVOR HIGH LATITUDE, BLOCKING COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN US. DR. JUDAH COHEN, A FAMILIAR VOICE FOR OUR WINTER WEATHER FORECAST, SAYS THE SIGNALS HE’S LOOKED AT FOR YEARS ARE ALSO MIXED. RIGHT NOW, THE ARCTIC PREDICTORS ARE NOT NOT STRONG ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, LEAVING DR. COHEN WITH A VERY DIFFICULT WINTER FORECAST. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THIS YEAR THERE ARE THERE ARE A LOT MORE PLAYERS INVOLVED. THERE ARE MORE FACTORS THAT ARE COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON A WINNER ADD TO THIS ATMOSPHERIC CONFUSION, ANOTHER FACTOR THAT’S RELATIVELY NEW TO US, JUST AS TEMPERATURES ON LAND ARE GETTING WARMER, SO TOO ARE THE OCEANS, LEADING TO A PHENOMENON CALLED OCEAN HEATWAVES. BASICALLY, AN OCEAN HEAT WAVE IS JUST AN AREA OF THE OCEAN WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A HUGE AREA IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS RUNNING WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ALSO MOST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALSO OR WE CAN SAY IS RUNNING A FEVER. HIGHER OCEAN TEMPERATURES MEAN MORE EVAPORATION AND MORE EVAPORATION MEANS MORE ENERGY FOR STORMS. ANY NOR’EASTER DOES GET ROLLING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT’S GOING TO HAVE A LOT MORE FUEL TO DROP, RUN OFF FROM THAT WARM WATER. ALL OF THESE FACTORS TOGETHER REPRESENT A SORT OF A PACKAGE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN. WE WITNESSED BEFORE IN AS LONG AS HUMANS HAVE BEEN RECORDING THESE THINGS. SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN TO THESE EXPERTS? THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CHANGE ABILITY. I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE COLD SHOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AND I DO THINK WE ARE IN A MUCH BETTER POSITION THIS YEAR FOR SNOWSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THAT COME UP ALONG THE EAST COAST THAN WE WERE LAST YEAR. EVEN TO GET TO 36IN, YOU KNOW, WE’RE NOT GOING TO GET THERE IN 1 TO 2 INCH BITES. I THINK WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE AT LEAST EVEN TO GET EVEN THAT, EVEN THOUGH THAT’S BELOW NORMAL, AT LEAST ONE FOOT OR MAYBE A TWO FOOT OR MY PREDICTION, ONCE PEOPLE ASKING IS FOR SURPRISES AND WEIRDNESS. OH, YEAH, SURPRISES AND WEIRDNESS. NOW, YOU DID HEAR DR. COHEN SAY 36IN THE MODEL THAT HIS COMPANY RUNS IS FORECASTING 36IN FOR BOSTON. BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT THINGS TO HIGHLIGHT. FIRST, THAT USUALLY MEANS INLAND AREAS END UP WITH MORE. HOWEVER, 36IN IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR BOSTON. NOW, DR. COHEN ALSO MENTIONED THAT HE THINKS WE COULD GET TO THAT 36 INCH TOTAL IN LARGER CHUNKS, MEANING A COUPLE OF HIGHER IMPACT STORMS COULD BE IN THE CARDS THIS WINTER. OKAY. WELL, THAT’S A LOT MORE THAN LAST YEAR. THAT’S FOR SURE. THE KIDS WOULD LIKE A COUPLE OF SNOW DAYS. NOT TO BE SHOCKED IF YOU DON’T GET TO USE YOUR SNOW BLOWER THIS WINTER. I LIKE THAT. I’M READY. I’LL GET IT OUT, GET IT GASSED UP. ALL RIGHT, HARVEY, GREAT TO SE GET LOCAL BREAKING NEWS ALERTS The latest breaking updates, delivered straight to your email inbox. Your Email Address Submit Privacy Notice Advertisement Here's what upcoming winter may have in store for Massachusetts, New England Share * * * Copy Link Copy {copyShortcut} to copy Link copied! Updated: 6:34 AM EST Dec 20, 2023 Infinite Scroll Enabled Harvey Leonard Chief Meteorologist Emeritus A.J. Burnett Meteorologist On the heels of one of the warmest winters on record last year, StormTeam 5 went to three experts in the field of long-range weather forecasting to get their take on what winter in Massachusetts and New England will be like this year.All three cited signals that indicate a highly variable season is ahead. Dan Leonard, long-range forecaster, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA"If this year goes according to plan, we should have a lot more variability and at least periods of intense cold and perhaps some snow, at least more than last year," long-range forecaster Dan Leonard of The Weather Company, an IBM Business in Andover said.The El Niño cycle, which typically brings an active southern jet stream and stormy weather to the southern continental United States and milder-than-average temperatures across the northern tier, kicked into gear during this past summer."El Niño is well established. It looks like we're going to have a strong El Niño as we head into winter," he said.But this winter’s El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded. The handful of very strong El Niños in the past have led to milder winters in in New England. On the other hand, conditions over the northern Pacific Ocean that make up another weather pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, aren't behaving like we'd expect during an El Niño."There's never been a case in recorded history of a strong El Niño in conjunction with a negative PDO. So that has a lot of us scratching our heads right now," Leonard said. Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Weather Forecasting, Verisk AER, Lexington, MAWhile it may seem strange, the wind direction some 10 to 25 miles high in the atmosphere, above the equator, can actually impact the chances that cold air from inside the polar vortex will spill southward, putting us in the deep freeze. This weather pattern is called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO."(The QBO) can be positive or negative, easterly or westerly. Last year it was westerly and this year it is easterly. Easterly starts to favor high latitude blocking and colder temperatures in the eastern U.S.," according to Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Weather Forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, MA.Dr. Cohen is a familiar voice for our winter weather forecasts and says the signals he's looked at for years, are also mixed."Right now the Arctic predictors are not strong one way or the other I'd say we’re not seeing a strong signal," Cohen said.That leaves Dr. Cohen with a very difficult winter forecast."It does seem like this year there are a lot more players involved and more factors that are could have a strong influence on our winter," Cohen said.Dr. Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, MAAdd to this atmospheric confusion another factor that's relatively new to us: Just as temperatures on land are getting warmer, so too are temperatures in our oceans, leading to a phenomenon called "ocean heat waves.""Basically, an ocean heat wave is an area of the ocean where the temperatures are much above normal for that place and time of year," Dr. Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Woods Hole said."If you look at a map of those temperature differences from normal, you would see that there is a huge area in the North Pacific that is running way above normal. And most of the North Atlantic Ocean is also 'running a fever,'" Francis said.Higher ocean temperatures mean more evaporation and more evaporation means more energy for storms."What happened in the North Atlantic this past year, I'd say, is really quite breathtaking. To see the entire North Atlantic so warm and exceeding the previous record by such a large amount. And if any nor'easter does get rolling along the Eastern Seaboard, it's going to have a lot more fuel to draw from the US from that warm water," Francis said."All of these factors together represent sort of a package that has never been witnessed before in as long as humans have been recording these things," she said. "So we're really kind of in uncharted territory in terms of what it means for the winter weather across the United States."So what does this all mean to these experts?Dan Leonard: "I think if I had to take a position here with the PDO in a negative phase that we will have a lot more activity this winter than we would ordinarily have during a strong El Niño winter. There will be a lot of changeability. I think there will be some pretty impressive cold shots across New England, and I do think we are in a much better position this year for snow storms especially that come up along the East Coast than we were last year at this time."Dr. Judah Cohen: "Even to get to 36 inches, you know, we're not going to get there in one to two-inch bites. We'll have a one-footer, at least one, or maybe a two-footer."Dr. Jennifer Francis: "There (are) so many uncertain factors occurring this year that really all bets are off in terms of what we're going to get. My prediction when people ask me is for surprises and weirdness." NEEDHAM, Mass. — On the heels of one of the warmest winters on record last year, StormTeam 5 went to three experts in the field of long-range weather forecasting to get their take on what winter in Massachusetts and New England will be like this year. All three cited signals that indicate a highly variable season is ahead. Advertisement DAN LEONARD, LONG-RANGE FORECASTER, THE WEATHER COMPANY, AN IBM BUSINESS, ANDOVER, MA "If this year goes according to plan, we should have a lot more variability and at least periods of intense cold and perhaps some snow, at least more than last year," long-range forecaster Dan Leonard of The Weather Company, an IBM Business in Andover said. The El Niño cycle, which typically brings an active southern jet stream and stormy weather to the southern continental United States and milder-than-average temperatures across the northern tier, kicked into gear during this past summer. Hearst Owned El Nino "well established" heading into winter 2023-24. "El Niño is well established. It looks like we're going to have a strong El Niño as we head into winter," he said. RECOMMENDED Body dragged by bear after Massachusetts man killed in crash on I-91, state police say But this winter’s El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded. The handful of very strong El Niños in the past have led to milder winters in in New England. On the other hand, conditions over the northern Pacific Ocean that make up another weather pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, aren't behaving like we'd expect during an El Niño. Hearst Owned "Negative PDO" pattern not usual with El Nino. "There's never been a case in recorded history of a strong El Niño in conjunction with a negative PDO. So that has a lot of us scratching our heads right now," Leonard said. DR. JUDAH COHEN, DIRECTOR OF SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTING, VERISK AER, LEXINGTON, MA While it may seem strange, the wind direction some 10 to 25 miles high in the atmosphere, above the equator, can actually impact the chances that cold air from inside the polar vortex will spill southward, putting us in the deep freeze. This weather pattern is called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO. "(The QBO) can be positive or negative, easterly or westerly. Last year it was westerly and this year it is easterly. Easterly starts to favor high latitude blocking and colder temperatures in the eastern U.S.," according to Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Weather Forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, MA. Dr. Cohen is a familiar voice for our winter weather forecasts and says the signals he's looked at for years, are also mixed. Hearst Owned Temperature outlook for winter 2023-24 (data: Verisk AER) Hearst Owned Precipitation outlook for winter 2023-24 (data: Verisk AER) "Right now the Arctic predictors are not strong one way or the other I'd say we’re not seeing a strong signal," Cohen said. That leaves Dr. Cohen with a very difficult winter forecast. "It does seem like this year there are a lot more players involved and more factors that are could have a strong influence on our winter," Cohen said. DR. JENNIFER FRANCIS, SENIOR SCIENTIST, WOODWELL CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTER, WOODS HOLE, MA Add to this atmospheric confusion another factor that's relatively new to us: Just as temperatures on land are getting warmer, so too are temperatures in our oceans, leading to a phenomenon called "ocean heat waves." "Basically, an ocean heat wave is an area of the ocean where the temperatures are much above normal for that place and time of year," Dr. Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Woods Hole said. "If you look at a map of those temperature differences from normal, you would see that there is a huge area in the North Pacific that is running way above normal. And most of the North Atlantic Ocean is also 'running a fever,'" Francis said. Higher ocean temperatures mean more evaporation and more evaporation means more energy for storms. "What happened in the North Atlantic this past year, I'd say, is really quite breathtaking. To see the entire North Atlantic so warm and exceeding the previous record by such a large amount. And if any nor'easter does get rolling along the Eastern Seaboard, it's going to have a lot more fuel to draw from the US from that warm water," Francis said. "All of these factors together represent sort of a package that has never been witnessed before in as long as humans have been recording these things," she said. "So we're really kind of in uncharted territory in terms of what it means for the winter weather across the United States." SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN TO THESE EXPERTS? Dan Leonard: "I think if I had to take a position here with the PDO in a negative phase that we will have a lot more activity this winter than we would ordinarily have during a strong El Niño winter. There will be a lot of changeability. I think there will be some pretty impressive cold shots across New England, and I do think we are in a much better position this year for snow storms especially that come up along the East Coast than we were last year at this time." Dr. Judah Cohen: "Even to get to 36 inches, you know, we're not going to get there in one to two-inch bites. We'll have a one-footer, at least one, or maybe a two-footer." Dr. Jennifer Francis: "There (are) so many uncertain factors occurring this year that really all bets are off in terms of what we're going to get. My prediction when people ask me is for surprises and weirdness." TOP PICKS This Day in History: Crews use 3.5 tons of Dawn dish soap in 1998 to clean animal fat from highway Way Day 2024: The best deals to know from major retailer's biggest sale of the year Gun pulled on pastor during a church service in Pennsylvania Has Amelia Earhart’s plane been found? Loading more articles... 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