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* Passive Electronic Components: Global Market and Materials Update – July 2022
PASSIVE ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS: GLOBAL MARKET AND MATERIALS UPDATE – JULY 2022
08/17/2022 // Dennis M. Zogbi in:
MID-CALENDAR-YEAR REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
* Capacitor, resistor and inductor lead times declined in July 2022, as did key
materials prices – especially that of nickel and copper – clearly showing a
global economic recession.
* Declines in specific product groupings suggest weakness in the computer,
handset and automotive ICE markets.
* Minor positive market activity was noted in infrastructure and mission
critical end-markets.
* We expect global improvement in the September 2022 quarter to support the
seasonal rate of growth for the holiday electronics build and to support
higher variable costs to produce electronic components.
* We view the ongoing data as an attempt for the markets to return to normalcy
following back-to-back supply chain issues stemming from the 2019 pandemic.
CAPACITORS
Capacitor lead times and demand declined sharply in July of 2022. Weakness was
noted in MLCC, tantalum and plastic film, while aluminum electrolytic capacitors
remained somewhat turbulent due to salient issues with materials supply, showing
a clear correction in the global capacitor markets for July 2022 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Global Lead Time Trend for Capacitors (Measured in Weeks) – January
2015 to July 2022
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. This chart is a visual interpretation of the
collective data for 44 types and configurations of capacitor monitored by
Paumanok IMR and shows that for the month of July 2022 capacitor lead times
decreased sharply on a month-to-month basis suggesting a clear downward trend.
The markets remain elevated in comparison to past cycles due to hyper-inflation.
MLCC CERAMIC CAPACITORS
MLCC lead times showed weakness again in July of 2022, after a clear slowdown in
June 2022. Ultra-small parts such as the 0201, 0402 and 0603 (EIA case sizes)
consumed in handsets showed signs of end-market weakness, as did the supply
chain for the larger 1206, consumed in computer electronics. Other product
types, such as the 0805 and larger 1210 case sizes, remained steady and
unchanged on a month-to-month basis. MLCC market demand has remained at elevated
levels since a pre-pandemic supply chain shortage rocked the market in 2019 and
drove up value in the ceramic supply chain that remained steadfast throughout
the turbulence of the pandemic. MLCCs contain four key choke point metals that
are impacted by tensions in Eastern Europe. These include nickel, copper,
titanium and palladium, which are cornerstone metals supporting ceramic
dielectric materials, electrodes and termination ecosystems.
ALUMINUM CAPACITORS
Sharp declines in lead times were noted for the SMD V-Chip and radial leaded
aluminum electrolytic capacitors in July 2022 related to the supply chain for
notebook and desktop computers. Meanwhile, there was an increase in lead times
for the large can aluminum capacitors and for the EDLC Supercapacitor. The
combined data suggests weakness in the computer channel but strength in the
infrastructure channels for power transmission and distribution. The aluminum
electrolytic capacitor supply chain has been impacted by additional pressures
with the processing of bauxite and alumina impacted by Eastern European tensions
creating price disruptions in anode and cathode foil supply. Meanwhile,
competition between manufacturers in the Far East has become even more intense
as rumors of consolidation fuel the rumor mill in primary intelligence source.
TANTALUM CAPACITORS
Tantalum capacitor lead times showed signs of deep weakening from April 2022
through July of 2022 (to date) as much of the pressure that was on the supply
chain to support the global increase in demand for computing devices began to
drop off – post Christmas buying season. The parts are largely consumed only in
circuits where other capacitors cannot be consumed because of the need for high
capacitance, high voltage and small case size. Weakness in the computer markets
is suspected.
PLASTIC FILM CAPACITORS
Lead times for plastic film capacitors stabilized between May and July 2022 on a
month-to-month basis but remain elevated. Because of its key use in renewable
energy systems, PHEV and EVx propulsion, film capacitors got a boost in the
March 2022 and June 2022 quarters and their respective markets remain elevated.
RESISTORS
In July of 2022 the resistor market showed clear signs of weakening in multiple
categories, especially in thick film chip and thin film chip resistors. Resistor
network markets and through-hole resistor markets also demonstrated clear
month-to-month signs of weakness.
Figure 2: Global Lead Time Trend for Resistors (Measured in Weeks) – January
2015 to July 2022
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. This chart is a visual interpretation of the
collective data for 14 types and configurations of resistor monitored by
Paumanok IMR and shows the overall market weakening in July of 2022 as
inventories crowded the supply chain in handsets and automotive. Overall, lead
times remain at unprecedented, elevated levels. Demand remains high because
parts are challenging to obtain due to supply chain shortages for raw materials.
THICK FILM CHIP RESISTORS
Thick film chip resistor lead times have declined steadily between May 2022 and
July 2022 (to date). The supply chain for ruthenium and alumina were impacted by
conflict in Eastern Europe in the earlier par6t of the year, although now there
clearly appears to be a recession in demand as lead times decline.
THIN FILM RESISTORS
The thin film chip resistor markets reacted swiftly to the increased nickel
price with lead times increasing 10 percent to 15 percent at the end of March
2022 and continuing their extension into April of 2022. However, from May
through July 2022, a weakening in the market caused a slowdown impacting the
lead times for the ultra-small chips in the 0402, 0603 and 0805 thin film chip
case sizes. In July 2022, all thin film chip case sizes showed weakness except
for the largest case size parts above 1210, which once again supports a wider
shift bin July to support infrastructure spending in Europe.
RESISTOR NETWORKS
After a significant increase in lead times driven by higher raw material prices
for ruthenium and alumina substrates, the resistor network markets began to
decline from May through July of 2022, with a steep drop in May and a levelling
off in June 2022 as markets return to normal trading levels in July. This
product line has been impacted by rising variable cost structure based upon
alumina substrate, ruthenium content and large physical case sizes requiring
large amounts of raw materials per unit.
AXIAL AND RADIAL LEADED RESISTORS
In June and July of 2022, demand for axial and radial leaded resistors,
especially those consumed in mission critical applications, stabilized but
remained slightly elevated. This was after seeing increases in demand for the
month of April as the war in Eastern Europe consumed defense related products
that require replenishment and challenge an older type of legacy supply chain.
INDUCTORS
Discrete Inductors
In July of 2022, discrete inductor lead times and demand remained at extremely
elevated levels following market wide concerns over consolidation in the supply
chain and variable raw materials costs associated with keystone metals that have
become choke points due to EU conflict. The markets came back down in June and
July following spikes in the markets in April and May 2022. The collective
declines for capacitors, resistors and inductors point toward an active global
economic recession.
Figure 3: Global Lead Time Trend for Inductors (Measured in Weeks) – January
2015 to July 2022
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. This chart is a visual interpretation of the
collective data for 3 types and configurations of discrete inductor monitored by
Paumanok IMR and shows the overall market weakening in July of 2022. Discrete
inductor lead times and demand remained at extremely elevated levels following
market wide concerns over consolidation in the supply chain and variable raw
materials costs associated with keystone metals that have become choke points
due to EU conflict. The markets came back down in June and July following spikes
in the markets in April and May 2022. The collective declines for capacitors,
resistors and inductors point toward an active global economic recession.
STRONG DOLLAR!
In July 2022 the currency exchange rates for the yen, won and NT dollar weakened
as the U.S. dollar strengthened in value quite noticeably for the first time
since 2016. The dollar is being viewed as a “safe haven” amidst a growing crisis
in Eastern Europe. The spike in yen, won and NT dollar has been noticed in the
global financial press and will impact revenue forecasts for fiscal year 2023.
RAW MATERIALS
The raw material price index for passive electronic components relaxed down from
May through July 2022 as all keystone metals tracked in the index did an
about-face as the world gripped and accepted the reality of an ongoing conflict
on the European continent. Metal prices are moving back down after profit taking
at key mining operations in the December 2021 quarter, filtering up the supply
chain. The China COVID 19 alert in April, May and June had a negative impact on
the global recovery. Prices adjusted downward post profit taking.
Figure 2: Passive Electronic Component Raw Material Index: Aggregated Pricing
Trend of 9 Key Raw Materials Consumed in the Production of Passive Electronic
Components
Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. This chart shows the collective price index
for key raw materials consumed in the production of passive components and
includes feedstocks for dielectrics, electrodes, terminations, substrates and
active layers of passive electronic components.
CORNERSTONE METAL TRENDS
These four metals – copper, nickel, silver and palladium – are keystone metals
for passive component production worldwide. The charts clearly show these rising
costs are at levels that have not been experienced in the monthly histories of
each chart and are therefore creating new levels of costs as they filter up the
supply chain. In July, all of these metals experienced a severe decline in
value, signaling the collective push-back of a wider economic event.
The aluminum price was clearly affected by the conflict in Eastern Europe, as
Russia is a key smelter in the supply chain. The ruthenium price reacted upward
as well, as ruthenium is a by-product of platinum mining, which will be impacted
by a shortage of palladium. The zinc price also reacted upward. Tantalum,
however, with limited ties to Eastern Europe, showed a slight uptick in price.
All keystone materials consumed in passive electronic components reacted to the
conflict in Europe by increasing, with aluminum directly affected and also
showing increased lead times further up the chain.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The data suggests that the global market for passive components is in clear
recession in July of 2022 but remains at elevated levels in terms of comparable
dollar value to prior years and cycles due to hyper-inflation. Components and
supporting materials markets are in the process of correcting in July 2022 as
the global markets seek supply chain parity and harmony of past cycles as
illustrated in Figures 1, 2 and 3 of this Special MarketEYE Report.
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Statements of fact and opinions expressed in posts by contributors are the
responsibility of the authors alone and do not imply an opinion of the officers
or the representatives of TTI, Inc. or the TTI Family of Specialists.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENNIS M. ZOGBI
Dennis M. Zogbi is the author of more than 260 market research reports on the
worldwide electronic components industry. Specializing in capacitors, resistors,
inductors and circuit protection component markets, technologies and
opportunities; electronic materials including tantalum, ceramics, aluminum,
plastics; palladium, ruthenium, nickel, copper, barium, titanium, activated
carbon, and conductive polymers. Zogbi produces off-the-shelf market research
reports through his wholly owned company, Paumanok Publications, Inc, as well as
single client consulting, on-site presentations, due diligence for mergers and
acquisitions, and he is the majority owner of Passive Component Industry
Magazine LLC.
View other posts from Dennis M. Zogbi.
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