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BREAKING

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Edit Story
Breaking


Investing


MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET'S $250 BILLION STOCK PLUNGE FUELS FEARS OF EARNINGS
RECESSION

Jonathan Ponciano
Forbes Staff
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Oct 26, 2022,09:57am EDT|
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TOPLINE

Shares of Microsoft and Alphabet extended losses Wednesday morning after the
technology giants slashed earnings forecasts for the rest of this year as a
result of the increasingly murky economic outlook—signaling upcoming earnings
from giants like Meta and Twitter may also disappoint investors.




One analyst predicts a slew of bad corporate earnings will continue through next
quarter.

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images



KEY FACTS

Though Microsoft beat sales and profit expectations last quarter, its stock
plummeted 8% Wednesday morning to about $230 after the firm said it would work
to temper costs "materially" throughout the year as revenues in the current
quarter could fall nearly $3 billion short of expectations.



Shares of Alphabet plunged a steeper 9% after the Google parent missed
third-quarter sales and profit expectations in its after-hours report and said
it would also focus on cutting costs this quarter; the company's YouTube
advertising unit especially posted a much weaker-than-forecast $7.1 billion,
versus average expectations of about $7.5 billion.



PROMOTED



"It was an ugly night for tech earnings," says analyst Adam Crisafulli of Vital
Knowledge, pointing out YouTube advertising is less resilient during economic
downturns (as is social media generally) than Google's search-engine arm—a
concerning sign ahead of earnings from Meta and Twitter this week.




Combined, the cratering share prices of the nation's second- and third-most
valuable companies (behind only Apple) erased about $253 billion in market value
($148 billion from Microsoft and $105 billion from Alphabet)—pushing both stocks
toward nearly two-year lows.

One bright spot: Amazon's advertising business has historically been similarly
resistant to Google search, which could bode well for earnings on Thursday, but
shares of the firm nevertheless joined the tech rout on Wednesday, falling
nearly 4%.


PLAY Forbes Money Video Settings Full Screen About Connatix V193450 Read More
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Read More Read More Read More The Market’s Achilles Heel?Watch Housing 1/1
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FORBES VALUATION

The steep stock plunge has wiped billions from the fortunes of some of tech’s
richest billionaires. Former Alphabet CEO Larry Page is worth an estimated $84.2
billion Wednesday morning. He's down about $5.8 billion—making him the day's
biggest billionaire loser, according to Forbes estimates. Fellow cofounder
Sergey Brin isn't far behind. His fortune fell $5.2 billion to $81.1 billion,
while the net worth of former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer dropped $3.9 billion
to $77.4 billion.


WHAT TO WATCH FOR

This week marks the busiest for earnings season, with 43% of S&P companies
slated to report, but 25% of consumer discretionary firms like Walmart aren't
slated to report until mid-November. Bank of America forecasts sentiment could
get "incrementally more negative" as the season progresses.


KEY BACKGROUND

The stock market has been in flux this month after aggressive interest rate
hikes this summer pushed major indexes into bear market territory. As signs
indicate the Federal Reserve may soon pause the hikes, which work to combat
inflation by tempering consumer demand, the S&P 500 has rallied about 8% the
past two weeks. However, looming corporate earnings have been a huge source of
uncertainty. In a recent note, Morgan Stanley analysts said it’s a “bad idea” to
assume the gains will be long-lived because a slew of emerging risks—including
economic weakness in Europe, the dollar’s strength and China reopening
uncertainty—will likely hamper company earnings in the next two quarters.


CRUCIAL QUOTE

"The moment the Fed decides to put out the fire [by pausing interest rate
hikes], stocks and other risk assets are likely to rally sharply," says Morgan
Stanley strategist Michael Wilson. "However, trying to play that for more than a
tradable bounce is a bad idea… because we still have to deal with the oncoming
earnings recession, which is likely to pick up steam this earnings season and
next."


SURPRISING FACT

Morgan Stanley projects the S&P will ultimately hit a bear-market low of between
3,000 and 3,400 points—suggesting the index, which is already down 20% this
year, could still plummet another 10% to 20%.




FURTHER READING

Stock Market Poised For Bigger Losses As Economy Enters ‘Danger Zone,’ Morgan
Stanley Warns (Forbes)


Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip. 
Jonathan Ponciano
Follow



I'm a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated
from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in
business

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SHARE: ANDREW WANG ON BREAKING INTO THE MORTGAGE BUSINESS


ANDREW WANG IS THE COFOUNDER AND CEO OF ONLINE MORTGAGE SERVICING COMPANY VALON.

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