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THE UKRAINE SITUATION IS A FAILURE OF STRATEGY AND LEADERSHIP

To avoid another Afghanistan-like scenario, the West needs a new Ukraine
strategy that involves a negotiated peace with Russia and a face-saving option
for Zelensky, writes political analyst András László

December 20, 2023
editor: REMIX NEWS
author: András László
Relatives morn at a grave of a soldier who was killed in battle with the Russian
troops on the Alley of Glory in Irpin close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Oct. 5,
2023. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
Posted on December 20, 2023 | by Thomas Brooke
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Additional funding for Ukraine has been delayed both on behalf of the U.S. and
the EU. However, too many experts and commentators are focusing on a lack of
funding and too few on strategy and the political challenges facing the war-torn
nation.

This is the state of play on aid to Ukraine after the European Council meeting
and President Zelensky’s recent visit to Washington.

The situation in the U.S. is complex. It’s a mixture of a shift in public
opinion, partisan politics ahead of an election year, and accountability for aid
already provided to Ukraine.

Currently, further aid to Ukraine is being blocked in Congress. Republicans want
to know how U.S. aid has been used so far and why military and financial support
has delivered little results. Congress is also concerned about corruption in
Ukraine. With 2024 being an election year, President Biden and Democrats are
worrying about pushing for more aid to Ukraine which is unpopular among
Americans.



The situation in the EU is even more difficult. EU countries cannot deliver the
promised 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine, an admission made a few weeks
ago by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. National governments also cannot
or do not want to give money to Ukraine out of their own pockets. Similarly to
the U.S., the EU’s largest economy, Germany, is facing a budgetary deadlock.
Therefore, national governments want a “European solution”: more EU debt instead
of more national debt. That way, they do not need to convince their own
electorate that taking on more national debt is the correct move, and do not
need to overcome legal limitations to acquire further capital.

The problem at EU level is that Brussels has already run out of money and new
debt is necessary not only to fund Ukraine but also to beef up the entire budget
of the EU.

In these circumstances, American and European considerations differ. The Biden
administration’s interest is to convince the EU to play a larger role in helping
Ukraine which could include taking over the entire financial burden of funding
Ukraine. After an unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive this year and tension
growing in other conflict zones around the world, it would also be convenient
for the Biden administration to shift responsibility for the outcome of the war
to European allies. This would also allow the Biden administration to avoid
responsibility for another Afghanistan-like disaster should Ukraine collapse.



European leaders on the other hand have no strategy and cannot see the end of
the war (and war spending) yet. Nor can they decide if the U.S. deadlock in
supporting Ukraine will be unlocked or if it will really be up to Europeans to
carry the entire burden of supporting Ukraine. Their interest is to keep the
U.S. actively involved and therefore to delay, as long as possible, a European
decision to fund Ukraine. If they were to step up their efforts without a clear
indication of what role the U.S. can or will play in supporting Ukraine in 2024,
the EU would take over the entire burden and responsibility and pave the way for
the U.S. to pull out.

Leaders at the European Council summit last week decided to divert attention
away from funding Ukraine and instead chose to celebrate opening accession talks
with Ukraine. That doesn’t cost anything and leaders can play it like they have
done something meaningful. They also didn’t miss the opportunity to use Viktor
Orbán for scapegoating. The Hungarian prime minister is raising very similar
issues to that of Republicans in the U.S.: what is the strategy to end this war?
How will the money be used? Essentially, how to avoid pouring money into a
bottomless pit?

Some leaders definitely took the promise of “supporting Ukraine as long as it
takes” seriously and their fear of Russia and their determination to help
Ukraine is genuine (Poland and the Baltic states for example), while others
merely wanted to please or at least not go against Biden’s policy.

Ukraine is now a hostage of this Western hypocrisy and the overly ambitious
goals President Zelensky had communicated for 18 months about recapturing all
occupied territory. He pulled out of a signed peace deal with Russia because
Western powers promised to help its war effort for as long as it took. Now,
negotiating and compromise with Russia would be unacceptable to the majority of
the Ukrainian public and therefore political suicide for Zelensky.

Simply throwing money at Ukraine will not solve the problems the West and
Ukraine are facing. People in both Washington and Brussels are trying to dodge
responsibility for the failed strategies. To avoid another Afghanistan-like
scenario, the West needs a new Ukraine strategy and allocated funding to support
that strategy. One that involves a negotiated peace with Russia and a
face-saving option for Zelensky. Where is leadership when you need it?

András László is a Hungarian political analyst and commentator who has
previously worked as an advisor to both the Hungarian governing Fidesz
delegation in the European Parliament and to the European People’s Party. You
can follow him on X at @laszloan.

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