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Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to seize two top Russian military
officials when he launched a short-lived mutiny on Saturday, the Wall Street
Journal reported on Wednesday, citing Western officials.

Prigozhin’s plot involved the capture of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and top
army general Valery Gerasimov when the pair visited a region along the border of
Ukraine, the WSJ wrote.



Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) learned of the plot two days before it
was due to take place, forcing Prigozhin to change his plans at the last minute
and launch a march towards Moscow instead, according to the report.

Wagner mercenaries took control of a key military base in the city of
Rostov-on-Don, and his troops were approaching the Russian capital when
Prigozhin called off his mutiny.

When asked about the WSJ report, two European security sources told CNN that
while it was likely Prigozhin would have expressed a desire to capture Russian
military leaders, there was no assessment as to whether he had a credible plan
to do so.

There has been speculation about the role of senor Russian commanders as the
mutiny got underway on Friday night. The New York Times, citing US officials who
it said were briefed on American intelligence, reported that the commander of
the Russian air force, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, “had advance knowledge of Yevgeny
Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership.”



Surovikin appealed to Prigozhin to halt the mutiny soon after it began, in a
video message that made it clear he sided with Putin.



Asked about the New York Times story, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:
“There will be now a lot of speculation and rumors surrounding these events. I
believe this is just another example of it.”

One European intelligence official told CNN that there were indications that top
Russian security officials had some knowledge of Prigozhin’s plans, and may not
have passed on information about them, preferring instead to see how they played
out. “They might have known, and might have not told about it, [or] known about
it and decided to help it succeed. There are some hints. There might have been
prior knowledge,” the official said.

Even though the mutiny failed, Putin prestige has been dented, the official
said. “If that is what factions wanted, then that is what they got.”



Viktor Zolotov, the director of Russia’s National Guard, claimed Monday that
senior Russian officials knew of Prigozhin’s plans for a rebellion because
people close to the Wagner boss had leaked them, Russian state media agency TASS
reported.

Zolotov also claimed the mutiny was “inspired by Western intelligence services”
because “they knew weeks in advance.”

Earlier this week, CNN reported that US intelligence officials gathered a
detailed and accurate picture of Prigozhin’s plans leading up to his short-lived
rebellion, including where and how Wagner was planning to advance.

But, according to sources familiar with the matter, the intelligence was so
closely held that it was shared only with select allies, including senior
British officials, and not at the broader NATO level.

Prigozhin’s spectacular falling-out with Moscow’s high command appears to have
stemmed from a declaration by the Russian Ministry of Defense that it would
employ Wagner’s contractors directly. The move would essentially have dissolved
Prigozhin’s lucrative operations in Russia.

Prigozhin arrived in Belarus Tuesday, the country’s President Alexander
Lukashenko said. Russia says Lukashenko brokered the deal that ended the
rebellion.

CNN’s Luke McGee, Nick Paton Walsh and Tim Lister contributed to this story

For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com




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 * Wagner's aborted rebellion in Russia over the weekend was a chaotic mess that
   ultimately failed.
 * It didn't make much sense that its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would stage an
   uprising that way.
 * Two reports since — from the NYT and WSJ — suggest Prigozhin had a better
   plan but couldn't enact it.

Full screen


1 of 8 Photos in Gallery©Pavel Golovkin/AP, Alexei Nikolsky/AP, Murat Kula/Getty
Images, Getty Images, Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images, Ludovic Marin/Getty Images,
Ricki Lee/Insider


PUTIN IS FACING AN UNPRECEDENTED ARMED REBELLION LED BY RUSSIA'S WAGNER GROUP
LEADER. THESE ARE THE 7 KEY PLAYERS IN THE CRISIS.

 * Vladimir Putin is facing an unprecedented armed rebellion from Russia's
   Wagner Group leader.
 * Russia's war in Ukraine has led to infighting among several of the country's
   key players.
 * These are the seven people you need to know.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing an unprecedented armed rebellion from
Russia's Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, his former close ally.

Fighters from the mercenary group entered Russian from occupied Ukraine on
Saturday and claimed to take control of several military sites.

The Russian president called the apparent mutiny a "betrayal" and vowed Russia
would defend itself and mutineers would be punished.

The events are a dramatic escalation in an ongoing feud between Prigozhin, the
leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, and Russian military leadership.

The war in Ukraine has also exposed complex relationships and jostling rivalries
between some of Russia's key players, which include army generals, politicians,
and warlords.

This is everything you need to know about the most influential people of Putin's
inner circle.

See More


What the hell just happened?

That's the question anybody following the chaotic attempt by the Wagner
mercenary group to stage a rebellion in Russia last weekend probably asked
themselves.

In a messy blur, as many as 25,000 men led by Yevgeny Prigozhin upped sticks
from their bases and turned their guns on the motherland.

They took the militarily crucial city of Rostov-on-Don with hardly a shot fired,
then stormed up the highway towards Moscow, taking down planes and helicopters
sent by the Russian army for good measure.

And then — they turned around and gave up? Prigozhin bailed on his plan, sent
everyone home, and headed off to some kind of retirement in Belarus.

According to the Kremlin's official narrative, the catalyst for the climbdown
was an intervention by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.




Lukashenko said his secret was dropping a whole series of f-bombs (and worse) to
persuade Prigozhin that the Russian military was strong enough to crush him —
something he surely knew already.




But now — thanks to reporting over the past few days — we have another idea of
what may have happened.

Yesterday, The New York Times fleshed out an idea widely held by
Russia-watchers: that Prigozhin hoped the regular Russian army would rise up
alongside him.

The soldiers wouldn't need to look far for a motive: widespread hatred for
defense minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov.

Per The Times, a senior Russian general with a notable grudge against the two in
particular may have been in on the plot.




Citing US intelligence officials, The Times said that Sergei Surovikin — top dog
in Russia's invasion of Ukraine until he got demoted by Shoigu in favor of
Gerasimov — was in on it.



Its report said Surovikin knew about the rebellion and helped plan it. But when
things kicked off, Surovikin choked and did nothing other than post a video
telling Wagner fighters to give up.

A second major report may explain why. The Wall Street Journal reported on
Wednesday that Prigozhin actually had a totally different, and better, plan than
what he ended up doing.

The Journal — again citing US officials — said Prigozhin had wanted to wait
longer to rise up, until Gerasimov and Shoigu were physically in Rostov-on-Don
where Wagner's men could take them hostage.

That would have given them huge leverage without the need to embark on a
650-mile suicide mission to Moscow, where heavy resistance would likely await.

Per The Journal, Prigozhin never got to do that because his plan leaked and the
visit was moved back.

Knowing Putin was on to him, per this new narrative, Prigozhin instead did the
best he could at short notice.

If that is true, he may well have been happy to take Lukashenko's off-ramp once
it became clear that it wasn't a trap, at least in the short term.

There are, of course, a thousand other potential explanations, and we may never
know the truth.

But I am totally prepared to believe that what we saw over the weekend was
pretty much what it looked like — a heavily-armed clown show being run by the
seat of its leader's pants.




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