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Home » Banyan Edge » Trading Smarter During Earnings Season


TRADING SMARTER DURING EARNINGS SEASON

Posted by Michael Carr | Jan 18, 2024 | Banyan Edge, Trading Strategies, U.S.
Economy

2 minute, 16 second read



Earnings season is underway. It’s still early, but the trend is already
troubling.

Through the end of last week, 29 of the companies in the S&P 500 Index had
reported results for the fourth quarter of 2023. As usual, about three quarters
beat expectations.

The long-term average beat rate is about 74%. So far, 76% reported
better-than-expected results.

Under the surface, the numbers are below average. There have been some big
misses. Citigroup, (NYSE: C) for example, was expected to report earnings of
$0.11 per share. Instead, C lost $1.16.

If companies continue missing at this level, index earnings will be down 9.8%
compared to a year ago.

This is a bad news/good news situation. It’s bad news for the market — but good
news for those who can spot the perfect trading opportunities brewing in this
environment…


A SMART WAY TO TRADE EARNINGS SEASON

Unfortunately, weaker earnings could weigh on the stock market. Prices in major
indexes could decline along with earnings.

But the positive news is that traders get plenty of short-term trading
opportunities. Even though earnings are down almost 10%, about three quarters of
the companies that reported beat expectations.

Many of those stocks will rally on the news, and there’s a perfectly logical
reason behind that.

You see, stock prices reflect all of the information available about the
underlying company. And earnings provide new information.

Traders need to react to that information, and they often push the price of the
stock up or down by a large amount.

While traders are reacting, analysts are plugging the new information into their
models. This allows them to revise their estimates for next quarter and update
their price targets.

Analysts use all this to update their reports. Then the process slows down a
little bit. Analyst reports need to go through a prerelease process at major
Wall Street firms.

This process (required by SEC rules) can take some time. The period varies by
firm with some able to get research released in a few hours, while others need a
few days or even weeks.

That’s why analyst upgrades, or downgrades, tend to trickle out over several
weeks.

Each new report can reinforce a stock’s trend. Researchers call this
post-earnings announcement drift because prices tend to drift in the direction
of the initial reaction for some time after earnings day. This can take days or
weeks.

Knowing this, we can ride these predictable price movements to our advantage by
following the right signals.

This quarter, I’ll be introducing a new strategy to Precision Profits to trade
the post-earnings announcement drift.

To learn how you can jump in on the opportunity to trade this strategy (along
with several others) ­click here.

Regards,


Michael Carr
Editor, Precision Profits


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