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Briefing|Will Abortion Kill the Filibuster?

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Newsletter


THE MORNING


WILL ABORTION KILL THE FILIBUSTER?

Courts don’t make laws. Congress does.

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The U.S. Capitol.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times


By David Leonhardt

April 14, 2023, 6:43 a.m. ET
You’re reading The Morning newsletter.  Make sense of the day’s news and ideas.
David Leonhardt and Times journalists guide you through what’s happening — and
why it matters. Get it sent to your inbox.

Will abortion be the issue that kills the filibuster?

For now, the fight over federal abortion policy is occurring largely in the
courts. Judges have issued opposing rulings over the past week related to
mifepristone, a drug used in more than half of U.S. abortions today, and the
Supreme Court will probably resolve the conflict in coming days or weeks.

In the long term, however, court decisions are unlikely to have the final word
over abortion policy. Legislation will. Judges merely interpret the law —
sometimes aggressively, it’s true — but they cannot write new laws. Only
legislators, in Congress and at the state level, can pass laws.

The current legal battles over abortion make the point. Each of the court
decisions of the past week has interpreted federal laws that affect the use of
mifepristone. And Congress could make these cases largely irrelevant by passing
a new law that clearly gave — or denied — women access to mifepristone and other
drugs used in medication abortions. More court fights would no doubt follow, but
they would revolve around different questions.


A 2025 SCENARIO

The current Congress, of course, is not going to pass any sweeping abortion
laws. Democrats control the Senate, Republicans control the House, and the two
parties disagree on abortion policy. But the next time one party is in charge of
both chambers as well as the White House, the pressure to pass abortion
legislation will be immense. Both parties are already talking about what such a
bill might include.



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For Republicans, it could be nationwide restrictions on abortion, perhaps
similar to the laws that 13 states have enacted since the fall of Roe v. Wade
last year. A less ambitious Republican bill might restrict the mailing of pills
like mifepristone, making the current court case redundant. (The shipping of
pills is an important issue to abortion opponents because the practice can allow
people to circumvent state restrictions, as this Times story about international
mail ordering explains.)

For Democrats, a bill could do the opposite: protect the mailing of medications
and create a national right to abortion that applies to at least the early
stages of pregnancy.

American politics is now so closely divided — with Democrats controlling 51
Senate seats — that neither party seems likely to hold the 60 seats necessary to
override a filibuster anytime soon. Still, abortion has become sufficiently
contested and salient that it could test the practice in a way no other issue
recently has. A simple majority of senators can vote to end the filibuster,
which is a Senate tradition and not part of the Constitution or any other law.

Imagine a President Ron DeSantis taking office in 2025, with Republicans in
control of Congress, and signing a national abortion ban that many conservatives
consider a moral imperative. (Florida legislators yesterday passed one of the
country’s most restrictive abortion laws, and DeSantis, the governor, has said
he will sign it.)

Or imagine if President Biden were to win re-election while the Democrats kept
the Senate and retook the House. In that scenario, the politics of abortion
would probably have played a role, given the popularity of at least some
abortion access.



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In either case, the party in power would have the power to pass a sweeping
abortion law — but only if the Senate scrapped or overhauled the filibuster.

Many progressives have long favored ending the filibuster. They argue,
accurately, that it stymies Democratic legislation much more often than it does
Republican legislation. (I walked through the history in a previous newsletter.)
The reason is simple: Conservatives tend to be happier with less government,
while liberals often favor more.

But the filibuster is not likely to die until the debate revolves around a
concrete policy rather than theoretical ideas about Senate process. When the
filibuster stands in the way of a change to American life that one party
passionately supports, the practice will be endangered. Abortion looks
increasingly like the issue that might one day fit that description.

As Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, told me yesterday,
“Pressure continues to mount to jettison the filibuster and the next time either
party has the trifecta — White House, Senate, House — I expect the filibuster
will be in real jeopardy.”

Until then, the political battle will take place mostly in federal courts and at
the state level.


WHAT’S NEXT

On Wednesday night, three Republican-appointed judges on an appeals court panel
issued a ruling that would restrict access to mifepristone, but it has not yet
gone into effect. Yesterday, a Democratic-appointed judge issued a contrary
ruling, ordering the F.D.A. not to restrict access to the drug in certain
states.



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The Justice Department has announced it will ask the Supreme Court to resolve
the dispute. If the court agrees to do so, it will likely happen on a faster
timetable than many other cases. “It will be on what critics call ‘the shadow
docket,’ which means it won’t be a typical case where the court hears oral
arguments,” said Abbie VanSickle, a Times reporter covering the courts. “It will
happen quickly, although just how quickly is totally at the discretion of
Scotus.”

You can read the details in this Times story.

Related: See where the likely 2024 presidential contenders stand on abortion.


THE LATEST NEWS


PENTAGON LEAK


Image

Outside the home of Jack Teixeira.Credit...Haley Willis/The New York Times


 * The F.B.I. arrested a 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guardsman at his
   mother’s home in the leak of highly classified U.S. intelligence documents.

 * The suspect, Jack Teixeira, was the administrator of a chat group called Thug
   Shaker Central, where the classified materials surfaced.

 * President Biden sought to downplay the leaks, saying he wasn’t concerned
   about their disclosures.

 * How could Teixeira have obtained these documents anyway? The leak has started
   a conversation about security clearances in the government.


POLITICS

 * Donald Trump was questioned under oath in a civil fraud lawsuit brought by
   Letitia James, the New York state attorney general, against him and three of
   his children.

 * Justice Clarence Thomas and his relatives sold property to a billionaire
   friend who also funded lavish trips for him. Thomas never disclosed the deal.

 * The young Black Democrats expelled from the Tennessee legislature have
   modeled themselves after civil rights leaders of the past.

 * The illnesses of Senators Mitch McConnell and Dianne Feinstein have stalled
   action in the chamber at a critical time.

 * A defamation case against Fox News that’s set to go to trial next week will
   address the limits of journalistic responsibility.


OTHER BIG STORIES

 * Despite cooling prices, economists are worried a recession is on the way — or
   that the Fed will cause one as it tries to rein in inflation.

 * Resistance from manufacturers and consumers could complicate the Biden
   administration’s push to increase electric vehicle sales.

 * To tackle climate change, we’ll need to electrify not only millions of cars,
   but also home heaters and stoves. Here’s how that could happen.

 * An acquaintance was arrested in the stabbing death of the tech executive Bob
   Lee in San Francisco.


OPINIONS

We can fix our crumbling democracy by making it more representative, the
political theorist Danielle Allen argues on “The Ezra Klein Show.”

If President Biden wants to invest in clean electricity, he needs to make sure
it’s as clean as advertised, Leah C. Stokes writes.



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MORNING READS


Image

Pineapple lily.Credit...Jenks Farmer


Stinky flowers: Pineapple lilies are stunning, and they don’t all smell like
rotten meat.

New czar: “The rats are going to hate Kathy.”

Are chatbots sentient? Maybe a little bit, according to one philosopher.

Modern Love: How to fall out of love with yourself.

Lives Lived: Mary Quant, the British designer known as the mother of the
miniskirt, epitomized the style of the Swinging Sixties. She died at 93.



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SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

Washington Commanders: Dan Snyder agreed in principle to sell the football team
for an N.F.L. record of $6 billion. Meet the likely new owner, Josh Harris.

Tampa Bay Rays: The baseball team won their 13th game in a row.

N.B.A. playoffs: The Los Angeles Lakers have struggled all season. Yet multiple
coaches and executives see the No. 7 seed as a certain pick in Round 1 of the
N.B.A. playoffs.


ARTS AND IDEAS


Image

Nautical reference images in David Grann’s office.Credit...Vincent Tullo for The
New York Times



AN 18TH-CENTURY MUTINY

In 1742, a vessel washed up on the shore of Brazil. The 30 men aboard were
survivors of the H.M.S. Wager, which had run aground almost 3,000 miles away
along the Chilean coastline. Six months later, a second boat came ashore in
Chile with three men who said that the others were dishonorable: “They were not
heroes. They were mutineers.”

A new book by the New Yorker writer David Grann focuses on the mysteries
surrounding the shipwreck. Rather than trying to smooth over the survivors’
conflicting accounts, Grann lets readers puzzle over the contradictions. “This
is a story about the disintegration of a floating civilization,” he told The
Times.



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Related: Read The Times’s review.


PLAY, WATCH, EAT


WHAT TO COOK


Image

Credit...David Malosh for The New York Times


This miso-honey chicken and asparagus is an easy sheet-pan meal.


TRAVEL

Go beyond the Strip for 36 hours in Las Vegas.


LATE NIGHT

James Corden joked about Biden sitting at a tiny Irish desk.


NEWS QUIZ

How well did you follow the headlines this week?


NOW TIME TO PLAY


Image



The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was wedlock. Here are today’s puzzle
and the Bee Buddy.

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Shade of blue (three letters).



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And here’s today’s Wordle.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —
David

P.S. We are mourning the loss of our colleague Lisa Cowan, a Times editor who
died yesterday. Lisa was a cheerful presence, a mentor and a key part of The
Times’s nighttime news coverage.

Here’s today’s front page.

“The Daily” is about “The Phantom of the Opera” ending its run.

Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at
themorning@nytimes.com.








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