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FED CAN’T FIX 27% SURGE IN CALIFORNIA GROCERY…


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RESTAURANTS, FOOD AND DRINK |
FED CAN’T FIX 27% SURGE IN CALIFORNIA GROCERY PRICES


NO BUREAUCRATIC ACTION WILL GET 2019-LIKE PRICES BACK ON THE GROCERY SHELVES


HOW FOOD INFLATION FARED IN 2019-23 (Chart by Flourish)
By Jonathan Lansner | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: February 1, 2024 at 7:24 a.m. | UPDATED: February 2, 2024 at 7:02
a.m.

Sometime in 2024, the Federal Reserve will declare it won its war on inflation.

Fears of a recession will ease. The news should boost stock prices. Lower
interest rates likely will be a boon to house hunters.

Yet, any grocery shopper who’s paying attention at the checkout counter will
ask, “What are they talking about?”

Pandemic-fueled inflation made a mess out of numerous household budgets. High
food costs have been one particularly harsh result.

California’s cost of living, for example, got 19% pricier since 2019, according
to my trusty spreadsheet’s average of regional Consumer Price Indexes for Los
Angeles-Orange County, San Francisco, San Diego, and the Inland Empire.

Rocketing prices have been particularly intense wherever you stock your fridge
and pantry. Groceries in California are 27% more expensive in four years,
according to my CPI averages.




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Sadly for those in monetary distress, food is a hard-to-juggle expense. It’s 13%
of household spending, according to CPI math. And you can’t put it off like
perhaps furniture, clothing, or a car.

Now, you might try to find a bargain when a favorite item gets too expensive.
But that’s tricky when food costs soar almost across the board.



Plus, dining out is not a money-saving alternative. Food away from home, by
California CPI averages, jumped 23% in four years.

AISLE BY AISLE

Prices were unkind on almost every grocery aisle. Ponder these budget-busting
prices for California food niches tracked by the local CPIs – and why these
expenses mushroomed. We rank them by the size of the surge  …

Cereals and bakery products: Up 35% in four years. The biggest culprits were
grain shortages due to the Ukraine war and small crops affected by climate
change.

Other food at home: This grouping – which includes sweets, oils, and frozen
meals – jumped 30%. There’s soaring demand for the convenience of frozen foods.
Meanwhile, sugar prices were also on the upswing.

Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: The price of proteins rose 28%. Packing house
issues limited supplies. Illnesses cut chicken counts, and pricier grain meant
pricier feed.

Fruits and vegetables: Up 22% as demand grew with the desire for healthier
foods. Costs for energy, packaging, and fertilizers jumped.

Dairy products: Up 21% because keeping cows got very expensive as production and
transportation costs ballooned.

Nonalcoholic beverages: Up 20%, a bump tied to costly sugar, electricity,
aluminum in cans, and pricier marketing – a big part of the brand-sensitive
niche.

Alcoholic beverages: Here’s a bit of odd solace from a niche that was a rare
food group with below-average inflation – up 13% in four years. Folks are
apparently drinking less.

BOTTOM LINE

Often, the economy is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world.

So, when a worker replaces a lost job, there’s likely good vibes for the renewed
flow of paychecks. Also, lowered interest rates can make buying a home or car
more affordable.

But inflation is different. No bureaucratic action – from central bankers or
elected officials – will get 2019-like prices back on the grocery shelves. Those
financially overwhelmed by food costs will need more than comforting words from
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Yes, by December 2023, grocery inflation might have felt a bit tamed. It ran at
a 1.9% annual pace in California and 1.3% nationally. That’s well below the
slower-improving and overall cost-of-living, which is up 3.9% for 12 months in
California and 3.4% across the U.S.

Still, every trip to the grocery store will remind shoppers of the
not-so-long-ago days before food got caught in the inflation vortex: The goods
in the shopping basket that cost $100 in 2019 now ring up at $127.



 






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