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9 BASEBALL STORYLINES TO WATCH IN MAY

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9 BASEBALL STORYLINES TO WATCH IN MAY

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April is in the books, and combining that with the last few days in March, it
was certainly an eventful first month of the season, with plenty of twists and
turns.

But now it’s time to look ahead. The May schedule got underway Wednesday, and
while the new month doesn’t exactly offer a clean slate for teams and players --
for better or worse -- it does signal an opportunity to reset. Those who have
been down can put that behind them and begin climbing up; those who have been up
now face the challenge of staying there.

That dynamic offers us plenty of intrigue, so we enlisted nine MLB.com writers
and researchers to each pick out one storyline they will be following with great
interest as May unfolds. Nobody knows what surprises lie ahead -- just that we
don’t want to miss the journey.

The following numbers are through the end of April.


CAN THE ASTROS RIGHT THE SPACESHIP?

It’s jarring to look at the AL West standings in early May and see Houston
sitting in the cellar. The Astros' 10-19 record through the end of April was the
club's worst start to a season since they began the 2016 season with a 7-17
record before May. And that’s even with them winning their last three games of
the month.



Alex Bregman has not found his groove at the plate, although he did hit his
first homer of the season on Tuesday. José Abreu has struggled so much that he’s
been sent to the Minors. But the real problems have been on the mound.

Rotation stalwarts Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have all
spent time on the injured list. Second-year starters J.P. France and Hunter
Brown have given up 46 earned runs through a combined 48 1/3 frames. France was
optioned to Triple-A last week. Meanwhile, the bullpen has blown seven of its
nine save opportunities, and the vaunted trio of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and
Josh Hader have not lived up to lofty expectations, highlighted by a collective
5.40 ERA through 40 frames.

Is this the beginning of the end of the Astros’ dynasty? It’s too early to panic
since they are still packed with talent and experience. Plus, the AL West is
arguably the weakest division in baseball right now. But it’s time for the
Astros to start playing up to their ability.

-- Brian Murphy





WHAT HAPPENS WHEN BRAVES SLUGGERS START SLUGGING?

The Braves ended April with the best record in baseball (19-9), led in OPS for
most of the month and otherwise looked exactly like the World Series favorites
they were expected to be. So what happens when they actually play to their
potential?

Wait, what?

Atlanta has been its usual powerhouse self so far in 2024 without much
production from Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley. You remember
them, right? The unanimous NL MVP with the first 40-70 season? The MLB leader in
homers last season? The two-time All-Star slugger with MVP votes the past two
seasons? They've all been unusually quiet with the bat and ended April with a
combined six homers -- and each had an OPS below .700. Nobody expects that to
last, so as the weather warms in Atlanta, their re-emergence -- especially if
Marcell Ozuna's MVP-caliber performance continues -- could take the Braves'
offense to a super-elite level and spell big trouble for the rest of the NL.

-- Jason Foster





THE DODGERS ARE HITTING THEIR STRIDE

After a lackluster start to the season (12-11 through 23 games), Los Angeles has
begun to look more like the juggernaut it was expected to be when it amassed one
of the greatest offseason hauls in baseball history, adding Shohei Ohtani, Tyler
Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Teoscar Hernández to an already stacked roster.
The Dodgers went 7-2 with a +36 run differential over their final nine games of
April, breaking free from their early-season doldrums and making a statement
about what they might have in store going forward.

For the most part, the Dodgers’ blockbuster moves have paid off so far,
contributing to one of the highest-scoring offenses and stingiest pitching
staffs in the National League. As May unfolds, we should start to get a better
sense of just how good this team can be in 2024.

-- Thomas Harrigan


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WHAT WILL ELLY DO NEXT?

We’ve known since before his MLB debut that Elly De La Cruz was electric, and
that fact is on full display so far this season. He finished April with eight
homers and 17 stolen bases in the month. He’s the first player with at least
that many homers and stolen bases in a calendar month (since at least 1901).

There are only five other players in that span with at least seven homers and 15
stolen bases in a calendar month. They are Carlos Beltran (10 HR, 16 SB in
August 2004), Barry Bonds (seven HR, 15 SB in September 1996), Rickey Henderson
(seven HR, 20 SB in May 1986), Joe Morgan (eight HR, 15 SB in August 1976) and
Lou Brock (seven HR, 15 SB in July 1966). That’s right -- nobody has done it
twice.

If we lower the home run qualifier to five, there are five players with multiple
such calendar months: Henderson (June ’90, May ’86, June ’85), Bonds (September
’96, July ’91), Eric Davis (June-July ’86), Morgan (August ’76, August ’73) and
Brock (August ’70, July ’66). Only De La Cruz’s fellow Reds No. 44 did this
twice in a single season.

Given that De La Cruz did this in the season’s first month, could he do so
again? We repeat: What will he do next?

-- Sarah Langs




IS BOSTON’S ROTATION LEGIT?

Just as everyone expected, the Red Sox have the top starting rotation in
baseball this year. Hold on, what?

It’s true. Red Sox starters led the Majors with a 2.07 ERA and 3.03 FIP through
the end of April. That 2.07 ERA is the lowest by a team’s rotation through the
first 30 games of a season in the Wild Card era (since 1995). Despite starters
Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock currently sidelined with
injuries, Boston's rotation has continued to produce.

Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford aren’t just the top two starters in Boston’s
rotation -- they’re two of the best starters in the Majors right now. By
FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, Houck and Crawford were tied with
Zack Wheeler for the top WAR (1.4) among starting pitchers through the end of
April. Houck and Crawford have combined to post a 1.49 ERA in 72 2/3 innings
with 75 strikeouts, 16 walks and just one home run allowed.

-- Brent Maguire




HAS CJ ABRAMS ARRIVED?

This wouldn’t be a matter of a former top prospect “finally” figuring things
out, because Abrams is 23 years old. A prep shortstop at the time of the 2019
Draft, he was taken four picks after Bobby Witt Jr., who debuted one day ahead
of Abrams in 2022. Naturally, one would expect them to be on roughly the same
career trajectory, but Abrams scuffled for much of that season, spending a great
deal of it in Triple-A, and then was part of the Nationals’ return for Juan
Soto. He was solid but not especially eye-catching while serving as Washington's
starting shortstop in 2023, hitting .245 with 18 home runs and 47 stolen bases.

Abrams' production in the first month of 2024 was a completely different story.
He hit seven home runs, posted a .295 average and a .992 OPS through April 30.
He also punished fastballs (.407 AVG, 1.111 SLG), which was a serious deficiency
of his last season. It looks an awful lot like he’s turned a corner, but whether
this evolves into a full-on breakout season is going to depend heavily on what
happens in May.

-- Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru


WHEN WILL YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO START DOMINATING?

Yamamoto actually had a pretty good stat line for his first month in the Majors:
six starts, a 3.54 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 28 innings (11.9 K/9). So why does it
feel like his MLB debut has been a slight disappointment? Well, it's because he
hasn't been dominating everyone he faces, and when you get a $325 million
contract to be the ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers before you've ever set foot in
the big leagues, it's Cy Young caliber or bust. Which is right where Yamamoto
might find himself by the end of the season. But how fast can he get to that
level?

Yamamoto has shown flashes. Three of his six outings have been scoreless; it's
just that during the other three, he's often looked surprisingly vulnerable. He
has the weapons to mow down opposing lineups -- especially his splitter and
curveball, which already looks like one of MLB's best -- it's just that his
fastball hasn't been overpowering in the way we're used to seeing from a lot of
Cy Young aces. But Yamamoto probably just needs to string together a few big
games to start to flip the narrative. Maybe a double-digit strikeout gem or two.
We'll be watching and waiting for that in May.

-- David Adler




WILL THE GUARDIANS KEEP IT UP?

At 19-10, the Guardians entered play Wednesday tied for the best record in the
American League. They’ve built an early edge in the AL Central thanks largely to
an excellent pitching staff, which has posted a 3.41 ERA (sixth in MLB) so far.
Cleveland’s bullpen, led by Emmanuel Clase (0.59 ERA, eight saves) owns a 2.49
ERA that ranks first in MLB. The Guardians have weathered the loss of Shane
Bieber to Tommy John surgery, while Josh Naylor has been a breakout star on
offense.

Cleveland led the AL Central at multiple points in 2023 before fading down the
stretch, reaching 45-44 and taking the division lead on July 8 but then closing
the season with a 31-42 record as the Twins pulled away. With Minnesota sitting
in fourth place in the Central early on after a 6-12 start, the opportunity is
there for the Guardians. But will they continue their surprise start? May should
be a good barometer.

-- Theo DeRosa




WHO WILL EMERGE AS THE NEXT MUST-WATCH PITCHER?

Going back to the start of the 2010s, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen
Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and a few other superstar
pitchers all had runs of multiple years filled with electric, dominant,
must-watch outings.

Entering this season, Cole was in position (as reigning AL Cy Young Award
winner) to keep his stretch going but has been battling arm trouble since Spring
Training. Spencer Strider, who led MLB in strikeouts in 2023, looked poised to
seize the spotlight until his season-ending surgery. So that leaves something of
a void for what feels like the first time in more than a decade.

Some candidates who could capture the mound mantle? Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler,
Yamamoto, Glasnow, Tarik Skubal, Shota Imanaga, Logan Webb, Luis Castillo, Logan
Gilbert … or maybe Paul Skenes. Last year’s No. 1 overall Draft pick and MLB
Pipeline's top pitching prospect, the 6-foot-6 right-hander in the Pirates
organization has ripped through Triple-A so far with a fastball that sits in
triple digits and appears on the precipice of his big league debut.

-- Jason Catania


Did you like this story?

In this story:
 * Houston Astros
 * Atlanta Braves
 * Los Angeles Dodgers
 * Boston Red Sox
 * Cleveland Guardians
 * Elly De La Cruz
 * Yoshinobu Yamamoto
 * CJ Abrams


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