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THE SLOW GLIDE TOWARDS THE END OF RECESS

By Dan Bloom
August 23, 2023 8:00 am CET
>10 minutes read
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Voiced by artificial intelligence.

Presented by Masdar

By DAN BLOOM

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browser

Good Wednesday morning. This is Dan Bloom.

DRIVING THE DAY

ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS: Westminster is gliding through the final fortnight of
what feels like the quietest summer recess for years. Yes, this will utterly
jinx it, but …

Count yourselves lucky! On this day in 2022, a soon-to-be-defeated Rishi Sunak
had just ruled out taking a role in soon-to-be-Prime Minister Liz Truss’
Cabinet.

Meanwhile: Two years ago ex-PM Boris Johnson was scrambling to evacuate
Afghanistan … and in 2020 a COVID-scarred No. 10 was turning its mind back to
the Brexit trade deal.

There’s more: This day in August 2019 saw newly PM’d Boris Johnson heading to
Biarritz for his first meeting with Donald Trump … 2018 had ministers rolling
the pitch for a no-deal Brexit … In 2017 Theresa May, clinging on after her
disastrous snap election, was embroiled in a Tory row over EU courts … In 2016,
Brexit vote still dominating, ballots opened in Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour
leadership reelection while he rowed over a “ram-packed” train … and in 2015
Corbyn was weeks from a landslide victory to become Labour leader, while David
Cameron savored a surprise majority in the general election. Not to mention
Scotland gearing up for an independence referendum in 2014. So much for chaos
with Ed Miliband. (H/t GB News’ Chris Hope and PA’s David Hughes for some memory
lane ideas.)

**A message from Masdar: Masdar is active in more than 40 countries across six
continents and has invested, or committed to invest, in worldwide projects with
a combined value of more than US$30 billion. In the UK, we have developed some
of the country’s biggest clean energy projects, including the London Array and
Hywind Scotland. Learn more here.**

Pale imitation: So far this month we’ve had Sunak at a beer festival, a Where’s
Wally-style hunt for Nadine Dorries, and Greenpeace scaling the PM’s house.
Plus, you know … another interest rate rise, vicious internal briefing at the
Home Office, pressure over the Lucy Letby inquiry and the PM unable to say he’ll
“stop the boats” pre-election.

Valiant efforts … to keep the grid going with announcements in Health Week,
Small Boats Week and Education Week — plus some good news for the PM in
inflation falling — can’t disguise that there’s just less drama about. Whether
this is a symptom of Sunak restoring much-needed calm or having too little oomph
depends on your political flavor. Either way, with that election next year, it’s
unlikely to last.

AND NOW, THE NEWS: The prime minister is expected to delay a “far-reaching”
Cabinet reshuffle until the winter — most likely after the King’s Speech in
November, the Times’ Political Editor Steven Swinford reports today. Swinford
does however tip Sunak to make limited changes to his top team in the next 10
days or so, including replacing Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. Then it’s all
eyes on a “reset” and some “vision” at the October party conference.

Ruh-roh: Swinford names Health Secretary Steve Barclay and Environment Secretary
Thérèse Coffey among those vulnerable in a bigger winter reshuffle — though he
says Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is safe. Those tipped for promotion include
Ministers John Glen, Claire Coutinho, Tom Tugendhat, Anne-Marie Trevelyan,
Jeremy Quin and Laura Trott, and backbencher Laura Farris.

One interesting question … Will either Home Secretary Suella Braverman or
Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick be moved after reports about divisions in
the Home Office? Centrist Tories have been voicing anger at Braverman, while a
“Whitehall figure” told the Sunday Times Jenrick had taken his job “hoping for a
route back to cabinet.”

TORY TAX TRAVAILS: Disgruntled MPs give a taste of the fun to come when
parliament does return, after Tuesday’s figures showed borrowing between April
and July was £11.3 billion lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility
forecast. A trio of veteran right-wingers — John Redwood, Jacob Rees-Mogg and
David Jones — all tell the FT we need Tax Cuts Now. Ex-leader Iain Duncan Smith
tells the i: “You need to kickstart growth with tax cuts. If the economy is not
growing, we will lose the next election.”

But but but … Hunt made pretty clear “it’s vital that we don’t alter our
course.” We’ve not heard the end of this one before the Autumn Statement.

On other flanks: Disability charity Scope has written to the government via ITV
urging it not to cut benefits … Treasury Minister Victoria Atkins has told
PoliticsHome simplifying taxes will be “at the heart of policy design” … and the
Conservative Growth Group of Tory MPs wants council tax cuts for areas that
allow new homes (via the Telegraph).

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Plans to build seven special schools,
after 15 free schools were confirmed on Tuesday. Schools Week, which reported a
capacity crisis was cramming vulnerable pupils into staff rooms, has written up
the details — along with the Sun which campaigned on the issue. Children’s
Minister Claire Coutinho has pre-recorded interviews with BBC radio in Kent,
Cambridgeshire and Norfolk.

Yep, that’s right: It’s the third day in a row education has topped the
government grid, and Thursday will be the fourth with GCSE results. But Downing
Street says it isn’t “Education Week.” Good luck, as they say, with that.

Seizing on Education Week(TM): The Lib Dems have analysis of government figures
saying 12.8 percent of maths lessons were taught by non-specialists in 2022/23,
up from 11.6 percent.

TUMBLEWEED: There’s no government minister on the broadcast round, and neither
Sunak nor Labour leader Keir Starmer have anything public-facing on the diary.

WORLD AFFAIRS

AROUND THE WORLD: Despite the bare diary, some big stories about Britain’s
relationships with the world will be rising up the agenda today …

THE SPY WHO LINKED ME: A Chinese spy using fake LinkedIn accounts to spray
messages at “thousands” of British officials is thought to be the most prolific
hostile agent for a generation, reports Fiona Hamilton in the Times splash. Her
ultra-detailed investigation says the man worked on an “industrial scale for at
least five years,” probably from behind a desk in Beijing — and offered a
recruitment consultant up to £8,000 for details of a candidate in the
intelligence services.

It’s all a good conversation-starter … for Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, who
Bloomberg reported is due to visit China in the next week or so. Tory hawks are
already furious at him for not taking a harsher line on Beijing, and will no
doubt be talking about this story in no time. The visit has not yet been
confirmed.

MORE CHINA FEARS: The FT splashes on investors’ alarm at chip maker Arm — which
plans a stock exchange listing — saying it makes a quarter of revenues from
China and is “particularly susceptible” to political risk.

WHEELS UP: Is a U.K.-India trade pact creeping closer? Trade Secretary Kemi
Badenoch sets off for India tonight to meet G20 trade ministers and India’s
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. With Sunak expected at the main G20 summit in
New Delhi on September 9-10, it’d be a good time to draw on his parents’ Indian
descent to help seal a deal with his counterpart Narendra Modi.

But but but … Despite two-PMs-ago Boris Johnson wanting a deal “by Diwali,”
we’re still on the “fluid” 12th round of talks, as POLITICO’s Morning Trade U.K.
newsletter said on Tuesday. An official tells the FT there are “significant
issues” to be resolved (visas remain a sticking point), and the best hope may be
a mere “agreement in principle” next month.

Glass half full: The Express splashes all this with the headline: “Landmark deal
proves Brexit voices of doom are wrong.” It’s partly based on a quote from
Badenoch herself (but she doesn’t say an India deal is done).

TIME’S UP: The U.K. will proscribe Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group as a
terrorist organization “within weeks,” the FT’s Lucy Fisher reports, a move the
Commons Foreign Affairs Committee urged last month. Fisher says the Home Office
has spent months building up its legal case.

GOING NUCLEAR: Energy Secretary Grant Shapps is on the way back from Ukraine,
where he announced a £192 million deal to supply uranium enrichment to keep
nuclear power running this winter. Shapps has an unusually personal Telegraph
op-ed about his trip, including to the nursery once attended by a boy called
Nikita — whose family fled and moved in with Shapps under the Homes for Ukraine
scheme.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

PARLIAMENT: Still 12 days to go.

ULEZ TIZZ: The government looked at blocking the expansion of London’s ultra-low
emissions zone (ULEZ) — but legal advice said it would fail in the courts, the
Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reveals. As reported by GB News last week, the
government had looked at whether it could use the 1999 Greater London Authority
Act, which lets the transport secretary overrule a strategy that is
“inconsistent with national policies.” But it was a no-go. Officials were not
denying the story on Tuesday night.

Meanwhile … in emails similar to those handed to its Sunday paper, the Telegraph
has another story saying Deputy Mayor Shirley Rodrigues asked if a professor
could “reword” a study that found “no evidence” that London’s low-emission zone
(rather than ULEZ) brought health benefits to children’s lungs. The professor
said no. City Hall are kicking back, saying the LEZ was introduced by former
Mayor Boris Johnson and scientists “are free to disagree.”

Fightback: Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy has lambasted what he calls Tory
mayoral candidate Susan Hall’s “deeply worrying” views in comments to the
Guardian. Hall previously said the Notting Hill Carnival is “dangerous” and
(separately) that she has “constantly” brought up “problems with crime within
the Black community.”

POLL NEWS: Deltapoll has put Labour on 50 percent (up 4 points) and the Tories
on 25 percent (down 4).

GROUNDHOG DAY: Labour has written to Kemi Badenoch demanding an update on the
“shambolic” timetable for long-delayed post-Brexit checks on food imports from
the EU. The government said in May that its “Target Operating Model” would be
phased in between October this year and October 2024. But the FT then reported
it was set for another delay.

Tick, tock: The government has been refusing to deny the FT story, and a Cabinet
Office official tells my colleague Stefan Boscia the findings of a consultation
will be published “imminently.” While we wait for Cabinet Office Minister Lucy
Neville-Rolfe to respond to Labour, CCHQ said “the only trade [Labour]
understand is ‘trade union.’”

DEEP DIVE: DWP and Treasury bods worrying about the stark rise in long-term
sickness will be brewing a coffee for this 41-page IFS report on the rise in
disability. There has been a “marked rise” in disability benefit claims over two
decades and a big education gap — at age 30, the rate of disability is 8 percent
for degree holders and 24 percent for those with no qualifications. Times story
here.

Worse to come: The think tank says there’s been a “particularly large” rise in
disability benefit claims among children, up from 2-3 percent in 2002 to 5-7
percent in 2022 — much of it “learning difficulties, behavioural disorders and
ADHD” among boys. Though it does say it’s hard to distinguish how much is down
to better awareness.

GREEN SCRAP: Ministers are weighing up whether to ban microplastics in
washing-up liquid, toothpaste and cosmetics, reports the i’s Ben Gartside.

DORRIES-STEPPING: Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will be eating chocolate toothpaste in
an Ampthill cafe on a lunchtime visit to Mid Bedfordshire — his third since
incumbent MP Nadine Dorries said she’d resign.

What he’ll talk about: Lib Dem analysis of ONS data that says the price of an
average weekly shop has risen 37 percent in two years, adding about £870 a year
to a family bill.

YOU COULDN’T MAKE IT UP: After the milestone of 18,000 Channel migrants so far
this year, the Guardian reports there were talks about drafting in workers from
abroad to staff … the Bibby Stockholm asylum seeker barge. The Home Office, er,
decided not to do that.

RE-RUN-ERSHIP: Remember Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s promise of “a new kind of
apprenticeship” for over-50s? Department for Education Minister Nick Gibb has
told the Yorkshire Post the “returnerships” are just about “signposting”
over-50s to existing schemes — as FE Week reported at the time.

TRANS ROW: The Mail and Sun are among those that write up a paper by the
Institute of Economic Affairs railing against “political transgenderism” that
ignores views of the “transgender-sceptical majority.” It says Labour plans to
toughen hate crime laws would threaten free speech, which a party source tells
the Sun is “nonsense.”

TURNED AWAY: Some 163 would-be voters were turned away for not having photo ID,
and didn’t come back, in July’s three Westminster by-elections. That’s according
to data collated from councils by former Editor of BBC Political Research David
Cowling. The U.K. had about 183 allegations of in-person fraud at a polling
station in nine years to 2022.

MINISTERS ON TOUR: Veterans’ Minister Johnny Mercer is visiting the factory
that’s making nuclear test vet medals in Worcestershire … Leveling-Up Secretary
Michael Gove is in bits of Scotland that’ve had leveling-up funds … and rail
Minister Huw Merriman is actually on tour, driving a loco and taking questions
about mass ticket office closures.

While the cat’s away: The Mirror’s John Stevens has spoken to a rail action
group in Merriman’s own Bexhill constituency, and guess what — they don’t like
the closures one bit.

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT: Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has hinted he’d run
for Labour leadership again “if a path opens up in time” … *and* wants to
abolish whipping in the Commons. Fetch the popcorn for when he tries to pass
legislation. More via the Herald.

BIG PIPELINE: G20 countries poured £1.1 trillion of public money into coal, oil
and gas in 2022 despite agreeing to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel
subsidies at COP26, says a report leading the Guardian overnight.

MEANWHILE IN WALES: Your author has a post-Playbook-tour piece up this morning
looking at Tory attacks on “Labour-run Wales.” Former Welsh Secretary Stephen
Crabb says it’s a “playbook” and “the truth is, it is good and bad” — while Whip
Fay Jones says it can be like the ULEZ row in London “times 100.” Richard Wyn
Jones, director of the Wales Election Study, suggests it’s aimed at English
voters — not Welsh ones, with whom it could actually backfire.

High hopes: A senior Welsh Labour figure believes the Conservatives could lose
12 of their 13 Welsh seats, keeping only Montgomeryshire. But First Minister
Mark Drakeford’s departure next year adds an unknown quantity. Names circulating
in Labour to replace him include ministers Vaughan Gething, Jeremy Miles, Hannah
Blythyn and Eluned Morgan.

MAN OF MYSTERY: Like Blofeld in the early Bond films, the actor playing Boris
Johnson in a Channel 4 Partygate docu-drama will show his back … but not his
face, says the Telegraph. Will the Jon Culshaw-voiced PM be stroking Dilyn on
his lap?

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BEYOND THE M25

BIG CONGREGATION: Humanists and other non-religious people can now sit on bodies
that advise councils on religious education — new government guidance is here.

TRAIL OF DESTRUCTION: Greek authorities continue to battle catastrophic
wildfires on multiple fronts across the country. On Tuesday, 18 bodies, possibly
migrants, were found near the Turkish border where a major fire has been burning
for four days. In Athens, a district of 25,000 people was ordered to be
evacuated, my colleague Nektaria Stamouli emails to say.

RIVALS TO THE G7? The BRICS summit of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa has its second day in Johannesburg, where Russia’s President Vladimir
Putin used a video address to complain about sanctions.

WHAT A TREAT: Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa is giving away shirts,
chicken meals, bread and all-night concerts in a bid to win a second term in
today’s general election — via NPR.

WAKEY JOE: Fact-checking website PolitiFact has debunked “false” claims that
U.S. President Joe Biden nodded off during a visit to fire-ravaged Hawaii. A
high-quality clip of the moment is here.

PRIME-TIME VIEWING: Former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to surrender
to Fulton county jail on racketeering and conspiracy charges at “prime time”
tonight in a way that will maximize cable TV ratings, the Guardian reports.

PHEW: All eight people who were stuck in a cable car in Pakistan were rescued
overnight, via the BBC.

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MEDIA ROUND

Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden broadcast round: Sky (8.05
a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).

Times Radio Breakfast: Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Alicia Kearns (7.05 a.m.)
… former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram (8.05 a.m.) … former combat
helicopter pilot Ash Alexander Cooper (8.35 a.m.)

Also on GB News Breakfast: Former aide to Steve Barclay Leon Emirali (7 a.m.) …
Harrow Tory Councillor Matthew Goodwin-Freeman (8.20 a.m.).

Also on Good Morning Britain: Labour MP Dawn Butler (7.25 a.m.) … Iceland Foods
Executive Chair Richard Walker (8.25 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: International Chamber of Commerce U.K.
Secretary-General Chris Southworth (7.45 a.m.) … Women and Equalities Committee
Chair Caroline Nokes (9.45 a.m.).

Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Alba Party MP Neale Hanvey (8.30 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Lib Dem education spokesperson Munira Wilson (7.25 a.m.).

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: Rishi Sunak’s secret weapon: A land where UK Labour is already in
power.

Daily Express: Landmark deal proves Brexit voices of doom are wrong.

Daily Mail: Woman gives womb to her sister in UK transplant first.

Daily Mirror: Lucy Letby horror: How could it happen again?

Daily Star: Shoooo!!!! Warm and wet weather sends hordes of pesky bugs swarming
our way. 200 billion daddy longlegs breeding.

Financial Times: Investors raise red flags over Arm exposure to China risks.

i: Sister’s gift: Britain’s first womb transplant.

Metro: I gave womb to my baby sister.

The Daily Telegraph: Lawyers block PM overruling Ulez plans.

The Guardian: Hospital accused of ‘fobbing off’ parents of Letby murder victims.

The Independent: NHS bosses who ignored warnings must account for killer nurse’s
crimes.

The Sun: Rachel: Kick out Man U chief over Mason.

The Times: Chinese spy targets UK officials on LinkedIn.

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LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny all day, highs of 25C, almost no wind.

TAKE THAT, WORST BRANCH OF TESCO IN THE WORLD: Waitrose has lowered itself to
launching a lunchtime meal deal. There’s a branch on Victoria Street.

IN FOR PENNY: The snazzy outfit worn by Commons leader Penny Mordaunt at the
king’s coronation is on display at Speaker’s House until September 2.

CONGRATS: A photo of social housing campaigner Kwajo Tweneboa that was taken for
The House magazine will hang in the National Portrait Gallery from November 9,
as part of the Taylor Wessing Photo Portrait Prize.

LOVERS OF MINIMALISM: Grant Shapps and Michael Gove both have blank walls in
their parliamentary offices, says this week’s Spectator Steerpike column.
Philistines.

NEW GIGS: The Times’ Crime and Security Editor Fiona Hamilton has been appointed
chief reporter … and Chris Rogers has been named editor of GB News’ breakfast
show.

JOB ADS: Think tank Reform is hiring a deputy director of policy and a
researcher.

NORTH OF THE BORDER: The Edinburgh TV festival is on its second day, with
broadcast editors discussing who holds the power in TV at 10 a.m. and Louis
Theroux giving the James MacTaggart Memorial Lecture at 6.15 p.m.

NOW READ: The Guardian’s Peter Walker has ventured out of the metropolitan
bubble to (checks notes) Brighton and suggests a Green victory there is far from
assured — regardless of what happens with would-be Labour candidate Eddie
Izzard.

And this: The FT has a decent long read on the “bottleneck” of businesses trying
to get a better grid connection to install green tech — something farmers raised
with your author on the Playbook tour.

BIRTHDAYS: Wizard of Oz Lynton Crosby … Rochester and Strood MP Kelly Tolhurst …
Filton MP Jack Lopresti … Cheadle MP Mary Robinson … Penistone and Stocksbridge
MP Miriam Cates … Former Stockton South MP Paul Williams … Former Scottish
Labour leader Jim Murphy … Labour peer Dale Campbell-Savours turns 80 … Tory
peer Peter Lilley also turns 80 … Crossbench peer Onora O’Neill.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Jack Lahart and Zoya Sheftalovich,
reporter Noah Keate and producer Seb Starcevic.

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