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OXFORD ECONOMICS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest Global Outlook - September / October 2021

We have downgraded our global economic forecasts for H2 2021 and Q1 2022 because
of Delta-related disruption and the mounting evidence that supply-chain
bottlenecks are likely to constrain activity for several more months. As a
result, our world GDP growth forecast for this year has been lowered to 5.8%
from 5.9% last month and 2022 is nudged down to 4.7% from 4.8%.

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LATEST ANALYSIS

 * Sep 29 2021
   
   
   INDONESIA: RECOVERING DEMAND TO POWER CREDIT GROWTH IN 2022
   
   Lending conditions are easing in Indonesia, but demand weakness continues to
   hold back credit growth. As the economy continues to recover, we expect
   credit demand to rise, which should feed GDP growth...

 * Sep 29 2021
   
   
   CHINA: WHY REAL ESTATE IS SET TO COOL FURTHER
   
   A cooling real estate sector is adding to the list of headwinds that China’s
   economy is facing. While we think the authorities will ease policies on the
   margin to avoid a sharp downturn in the sector,...

 * Sep 28 2021
   
   
   UNITED STATES: BIDEN TO BEGIN RESHAPING THE FED
   
   President Biden will soon start to make his mark on the Fed by reshaping the
   Board of Governors. We look for him to nominate officials and tap leaders of
   the FOMC that lean dovish as they prioritize b...

 * Sep 28 2021
   
   
   EUROZONE: RECOVERY TRACKER HITS A NEW PANDEMIC HIGH
   
   Our Recovery Tracker posted a strong gain in the first half of September,
   rising by a cumulative 2.3 pts to a new pandemic high. After a slightly more
   muted August, the tracker gained solid momentum i...

 * Sep 27 2021
   
   
   UNITED STATES: POLICY CHEAT SHEET: A CRITICAL WEEK AHEAD
   
   Congress is scheduled to vote on key pieces of legislation this week needed
   to prevent a government shutdown and to advance the bipartisan infrastructure
   bill and a larger budget package funding healt...

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IN THE MEDIA

 * Sep 27 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: END OF COVID JOB SCHEMES STILL LEAVES US, EU AND UK SHORT OF
   WORKERS

 * Sep 24 2021
   
   
   THE BUSINESS TIMES: STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL KEEP ASIAN ECONOMIES RESILIENT
   DESPITE EXPECTED US FED TIGHTENING

 * Sep 23 2021
   
   
   THE NEW YORK TIMES: TURKEY’S CURRENCY HITS A NEW LOW AFTER A SURPRISE
   INTEREST RATE CUT.

 * Sep 23 2021
   
   
   INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES: US ECONOMY: LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX RISES HIGHER
   THAN EXPECTED IN AUGUST

 * Sep 23 2021
   
   
   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS HOVER NEAR PANDEMIC LOW

 * Sep 19 2021
   
   
   THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: WHY THE US RISKS RUNNING OUT OF CASH WITHIN WEEKS

 * Sep 19 2021
   
   
   USA TODAY: MORE AMERICANS STRUGGLING TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE AFTER FEDERAL
   BENEFITS END

 * Sep 19 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: ENERGY PRICES WILL PUSH UP INFLATION ACROSS EUROPE,
   ECONOMISTS WARN

 * Sep 19 2021
   
   
   THE TIMES: TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR FURLOUGHED STAFF

 * Sep 18 2021
   
   
   FINANCIAL TIMES: US RETAIL SALES DEFY EXPECTATIONS WITH REBOUND IN AUGUST

 * Sep 17 2021
   
   
   THE DAILY STAR: BUMPY ROAD AS AGEING JAPAN BETS ON SELF-DRIVING CARS

 * Sep 16 2021
   
   
   FORBES: HOW DIGITAL IS REDEFINING THE FUTURE OF U.S. HEALTH INSURANCE


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