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Research (Insikt)


LATIN AMERICA'S SECOND "PINK TIDE" OPENS AVENUES FOR IRANIAN INFLUENCE

Posted: 11th May 2023
By: Insikt Group®


Latin America is currently experiencing a resurgence of the political left and
far left, as left-leaning and far-left leaders now govern the majority of
countries in the region. We define the start of this resurgence, sometimes
termed a second “Pink Tide” — (the first having occurred in the early 2000s) —
as December 2018, when Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador entered
office; his election was the first in a wave of notable left-wing electoral
victories in Latin America. As Latin America trends left, it also increasingly
rejects United States (US) influence, which formerly played an outsized role in
regional affairs, thereby opening avenues for China, Russia, and Iran to expand
their activities in the region. While Chinese and Russian diplomacy and
investments in Latin America have been examined extensively, less has been made
of Iran’s efforts to deepen its ties to the region. Iran’s activities in Latin
America deserve close analysis in light of the Iranian government’s persistently
malign and destabilizing activities and its government’s sponsorship of
terrorism.

In light of changing leadership in Latin America, Iran has found new
opportunities to increase its political and economic footprint — especially in
Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, and Chile. At the same time, Iran has strengthened
ties with its steadfast allies, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Most notably,
Iran and Venezuela have significantly increased their energy trade to circumvent
and mitigate sanctions.

Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi meet in
Tehran, June 2022 (Source: Aljazeera)

In Latin America, Tehran seeks to expand trade relationships to mitigate the
effects of US sanctions and ensure food security, and develop political
partnerships to widen its sphere of influence. Iran will almost certainly seek
to increase trade relationships, cooperation agreements, and diplomatic
engagements with its steadfast allies in the region, and continue to make
inroads with powerful democracies led by left-wing governments, especially
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile.

Iran will very likely continue to capitalize on opportunities presented by
left-wing and anti-American leaders in Latin America to further expand its
presence in the region, with a focus on energy deals and other economic
partnerships. Outside of government-to-government channels, Iran gains influence
in the region using online media, including covert state-sponsored information
operations on social media and influences Latin American audiences through
Iran-backed cultural and religious centers. In June 2022, Iran also applied for
membership to the BRICS Union of countries, comprising Brazil, Russia, India,
China, and South Africa. If Iran is able to gain membership, it will likely use
this status, along with other multilateral bodies, to legitimize its presence in
Latin America and appear as a responsible and influential power broker.

To read the entire analysis with endnotes, click here to download the report as
a PDF.



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