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Economics
Central Banks


INDONESIA SEES ‘SMALL POSSIBILITY’ OF OFF-CYCLE RATE HIKE

 * Last week’s rate increase so far sufficient, BI spokesman says
 * Lone analyst who saw BI’s Oct. 19 hike sees further tightening

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The Bank Indonesia headquarters in Jakarta.

Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg
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By Grace Sihombing and Claire Jiao
October 26, 2023 at 4:32 PM HST
Updated on
October 26, 2023 at 5:33 PM HST
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3:02

Indonesia isn’t ruling out an out-of-cycle rate increase after policymakers
surprised most forecasters with a hike last week, according to a central bank
spokesman.

“As a possibility, it is always there even if it is very small,” Bank
Indonesia’s spokesman Erwin Haryono said on late Thursday, after the Philippines
delivered a 25-basis-point unscheduled rate hike. “But so far, the policy
response delivered during the latest Board of Governors’ meeting is sufficient.”

Expand


The comments underscore growing pressure on regional central banks to take
bolder tightening steps to support their currencies as the dollar strengthens
and US Treasury yields rise. Neighboring Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its
key rate to 6.5% in an off-cycle move on Thursday.


RUPIAH INTERVENTION

PT Bahana Sekuritas, the only one out of 31 to predict that Indonesia would
raise its benchmark rate to 6% last week, is now saying the central bank “could
and most likely would” tighten further. That may even happen earlier than the
next scheduled meeting on Nov. 23, its analysts said.



“Should the rupiah weaken again, we believe there is some probability BI might
resort to the option of hiking interest rates outside its regular monthly
meeting – which it did in August 2013 and May 2018,” Bahana’s Satria
Sambijantoro and Drewya Cinantyan wrote in a note. Further rate increase is
necessary as central bank intervention may not be sustainable, they added.

The rupiah declined 0.1% to 15,940 a dollar as of 10:24 a.m. in Jakarta. That’s
near a three-year-low of 15,962 reached on Monday. The 10-year government bond
yield climbed four basis points, set for the most in a week, to 7.20%.

Read more on the tightening trend:

Goldman Joins Rate-Hike Camp for Philippines, Indonesia

Dollar Resumes Climb Toward 2023 Peak as US Yields Push Higher

Rate Hike Wagers Take Hold in Southeast Asia After BI Surprise

As far as inflation threats go, however, Indonesia is in a far better position
than the Philippines after having cooled price gains to within target since May,
while its neighbor faces the risk of missing its price goal for a third straight
year in 2024.

BSP Governor Eli Remolona said the central bank “fell a little bit behind” after
deciding to hold the rate in September when inflation risks increased.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s October rate increase, which came after eight months of
pause, was meant as a “preemptive, front-loading” move, said Governor Perry
Warjiyo, who signaled last week that he’s ready to take action if warranted.

Another quarter-point rate hike to 6.25% would act as an insurance policy for
the Indonesian economy against geopolitical risks and rising political
uncertainty ahead of the 2024 election that could affect foreign inflows, Bahana
analysts wrote. Other economists are also expectingBloomberg Terminal further
tightening as last week’s rate move have done little to halt the rupiah’s
slideBloomberg Terminal.



Indonesia’s Financial System Stability Committee — which includes the central
bank, finance ministry, financial services authority and deposit insurance
agency — is due to meet on Nov. 3 and may deliver a more comprehensive response
then, BI’s Haryono added.



(Adds market movement in sixth paragraph.)

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