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Now that it appears Derek Carr is coming to New Orleans, one would think his
rate of being sacked would go down, and the Saints exploited how bad the
Raiders’ offensive line was last season, as defensive end Payton Turner
collected one of four sacks the Black and Gold collected in the Caesars
Superdome on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022.

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JIM DERRY: DEREK CARR WILL BE BETTER WITH SAINTS THAN RAIDERS BECAUSE OF 2
SIMPLE REASONS


KEY NUMBERS OFFER DEFINITIVE EXPLANATION ON WHY THIS WAS THE BEST FIT FOR CARR
AND NEW ORLEANS

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Now that it appears Derek Carr is coming to New Orleans, one would think his
rate of being sacked would go down, and the Saints exploited how bad the
Raiders’ offensive line was last season, as defensive end Payton Turner
collected one of four sacks the Black and Gold collected in the Caesars
Superdome on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022.

AP PHOTO

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JIM DERRY

Sports Betting Writer



Sports Betting Writer. Member of Times-Picayune staff since 1990. I also host
the Dattitude podcast. Follow all our Bet.NOLA sports betting coverage
on TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter.



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 * BY JIM DERRY | Sports betting writer
   
   JIM DERRY
   
   Sports Betting Writer
   
    * Author twitter
    * Author email

 * Mar 6, 2023 - 2:43 pm
 * Mar 6, 2023 - 2:43 pm
 * 

Much has been made about whether quarterback Derek Carr will make an impact on
the New Orleans Saints, now that he has reportedly agreed to a four-year deal.

There are multiple reasons why one could simply look at his offensive numbers –
as Terrin Waack showed earlier Monday – and say that he will be a massive
improvement over the Andy Dalton / Jameis Winston / Taysom Hill experiment the
team has endured in the two-season life without Drew Brees.



However, there are two main sets of numbers that tell a better story on why the
Saints will be a bargain to bet on to win the NFC South (where at Caesars
Sportsbook they are better than even money at +130). And it’s not just that the
other three teams in the division have a long way to go to catch up to the
overall talent of New Orleans.



Let’s get to the facts.

WITH DEREK CARR AT QUARTERBACK FOR SAINTS, WILL THE TEAM WIN A PLAYOFF GAME IN
2023?



Mickey Loomis and Dennis Allen got their man at quarterback. Will it be enough
to move the needle?

You voted:

Yes
No
Vote View Results
Back

First off, he will have a better offensive line. With the Raiders, Carr was
sacked 264 times over his 142-game career or 1.86 times per game. Compare that
with Drew Brees, who was sacked 328 times in 228 games with the Saints or 1.44
times per game, and that includes a whopping 124 sacks (just shy of 2 per game)
from 2013 to 2016, when New Orleans had an overall four-year record of 32-32.

When Brees remained clean in the pocket, the Saints did well. (Duh.) Although
Andy Dalton was sacked 25 times in 14 games (1.79 sacks per game), Carr clearly
is more mobile than Dalton (35 years old last season), and the Saints had a
second consecutive season with massive injuries along the front line.



Assuming the unit can remain relatively healthy – and one can bet they will
address the O-Line in the draft – this number will go back down to Brees-like
sack numbers.

Likely even more important than having a clean pocket has nothing to do with
Carr himself. And that’s the fact the nine-year veteran will unquestionably play
next season with the best defensive unit he’s ever had throughout his career.
The Saints have been 11th or better in four consecutive seasons and in the top
10 in the NFL in the past three.

The best defense Carr ever had with the Raiders was 14th, and he made the
playoffs in 2021, and other than that, 19th.

Here’s a look at the Raiders’ defensive rankings in the NFL (yards allowed per
game) during Carr’s tenure there and the final result of the season:



2022: 28th (6-11)

2021: 14th (10-7, 1st round of playoffs)



2020: 25th (8-8)

2019: 19th (7-9)

2018: 26th (4-12)

2017: 23rd (6-10)

2016: 26th (12-4, 1st round of playoffs)

2015: 22nd (7-9)

2014: 21st (3-13)

In other words, there are only a handful of reasons why one would think Carr is
not in line to have better seasons than he has ever had. And frankly, none of
them make sense.

He clearly is a massive upgrade over anything the team has had in the short time
Brees has been gone, and he is entering the prime of his career for a
quarterback at age 32.

None of the numbers here in this column or in the piece Terrin Waack wrote even
mention his past relationship with Dennis Allen or the fact the clear-cut
current top free-agent signal caller chose to come to New Orleans when he likely
could have made more money elsewhere.



He thinks he can win here, and the reasons most likely come down to the numbers
we have just presented.

We don’t necessarily suggest to grab your phone and make a large bet for the
Saints to win the Super Bowl next season, especially since those who haven’t yet
bet it missed out on 50-1 when they had a chance, but 1.3-1 to win the NFC
South?

That could end up being one of the bargains of the offseason.

Gambling Problem? Call 1-877-770-STOP. Or visit this website.



Contact Jim Derry at jderry@theadvocate.com.  Follow all our Bet.NOLA sports
betting coverage on TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter.

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