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25 COUNTRIES, HOUSING ONE-QUARTER OF THE POPULATION, FACE EXTREMELY HIGH WATER
STRESS

August 16, 2023 By Samantha Kuzma, Liz Saccoccia and Marlena Chertock Cover
Image by: Kirsten Walla/iStock
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More on
 * Freshwater
 * Water Quality
 * Aqueduct
 * water risk

More on
 * Freshwater
 * Water Quality
 * Aqueduct
 * water risk

New data from WRI’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas show that 25 countries — housing
one-quarter of the global population — face extremely high water stress each
year, regularly using up almost their entire available water supply. And at
least 50% of the world’s population — around 4 billion people — live under
highly water-stressed conditions for at least one month of the year.

Living with this level of water stress jeopardizes people’s lives, jobs, food
and energy security. Water is central to growing crops and raising livestock,
producing electricity, maintaining human health, fostering equitable societies
and meeting the world’s climate goals.  

Without better water management, population growth, economic development and
climate change are poised to worsen water stress.  

Here, we dive deep into what’s causing growing water stress — and which
countries and regions will be impacted the most.




WHAT’S CAUSING GLOBAL WATER STRESS?

Across the world, demand for water is exceeding what’s available. Globally,
demand has more than doubled since 1960.

Increased water demand is often the result of growing populations and industries
like irrigated agriculture, livestock, energy production and manufacturing.
Meanwhile, lack of investment in water infrastructure, unsustainable water use
policies or increased variability due to climate change can all affect the
available water supply.

Water stress, the ratio of water demand to renewable supply, measures the
competition over local water resources. The smaller the gap between supply and
demand, the more vulnerable a place is to water shortages. A country facing
“extreme water stress” means it is using at least 80% of its available supply,
“high water stress” means it is withdrawing 40% of its supply.

Without intervention — such as investment in water infrastructure and better
water governance — water stress will continue to get worse, particularly in
places with rapidly growing populations and economies.


WHICH COUNTRIES FACE THE WORST WATER STRESS?

Our data shows that 25 countries are currently exposed to extremely high water
stress annually, meaning they use over 80% of their renewable water supply for
irrigation, livestock, industry and domestic needs. Even a short-term drought
puts these places in danger of running out of water and sometimes prompts
governments to shut off the taps. We’ve already seen this scenario play out in
many places around the world, such as England, India, Iran, Mexico, and South
Africa.

The five most water-stressed countries are Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Oman and Qatar. The water stress in these countries is mostly driven by low
supply, paired with demand from domestic, agricultural and industrial use.

The most water-stressed regions are the Middle East and North Africa, where 83%
of the population is exposed to extremely high water stress, and South Asia,
where 74% is exposed.




THE SITUATION IS POISED TO WORSEN

By 2050, an additional 1 billion people are expected to live with extremely high
water stress, even if the world limits global temperature rise to 1.3 degrees C
to 2.4 degrees C (2.3 degrees F to 4.3 degrees F) by 2100, an optimistic
scenario.



Global water demand is projected to increase by 20% to 25% by 2050, while the
number of watersheds facing high year-to-year variability, or less predictable
water supplies, is expected to increase by 19%. For the Middle East and North
Africa, this means 100% of the population will live with extremely high
water stress by 2050. That’s a problem not just for consumers and water-reliant
industries, but for political stability. In Iran, for example, decades of poor
water management and unsustainable water use for agriculture are already causing
protests — tensions that will only intensify as water stress worsens.


WATER DEMAND IS EXPLODING IN AFRICA; PLATEAUING IN WEALTHIER NATIONS

The biggest change in water demand between now and 2050 will occur in
Sub-Saharan Africa. While most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are not extremely
water-stressed right now, demand is growing faster there than any other region
in the world. By 2050, water demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to
skyrocket by 163% — 4 times the rate of change compared to Latin America, the
second-highest region, which is expected to see a 43% increase in water demand.

This increase in water use, mainly expected for irrigation and domestic water
supply, could foster major economic growth in Africa — projected to be
the fastest-growing economic region in the world. However, inefficient water use
and unsustainable water management also threatens to lower the region’s GDP by
6%.



Meanwhile, water demand has plateaued in wealthier countries in North America
and Europe. Investment in water-use efficiency has helped reduce in-country
water use in high income countries, but water use and dependencies extend beyond
national boundaries, and the water embedded in international trade from
lower-middle income countries to high income countries will increasingly
contribute to rising  water stress in low and lower-middle income countries.


WATER STRESS COULD MAJORLY DISRUPT ECONOMIES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Increasing water stress threatens countries’ economic growth as well as the
world’s food security.

According to data from Aqueduct, 31% of global GDP — a whopping $70 trillion —
will be exposed to high water stress by 2050, up from $15 trillion (24% of
global GDP) in 2010. Just four countries — India, Mexico, Egypt and Turkey —
account for over half of the exposed GDP in 2050.



Water shortages can lead to industrial interruptions, energy outages and
agricultural production losses — like those already being seen in India, where a
lack of water to cool thermal powerplants between 2017 and 2021 resulted in 8.2
terawatt-hours in lost energy – or enough electricity to power 1.5
million Indian households for five years. Failing to implement better water
management policies could result in GDP losses in India, China and Central Asia
of 7% to 12%, and 6% in much of Africa by 2050 according to the Global
Commission on Adaptation.

Global food security is also at risk. Already, 60% of the world’s irrigated
agriculture faces extremely high water stress — particularly sugarcane, wheat,
rice and maize. Yet to feed a projected 10 billion people by 2050, the world
will need to produce 56% more food calories than it did in 2010 — all while
dealing with increasing water stress as well as climate-driven disasters like
droughts and floods.


BETTER MANAGEMENT FOR A WATER-SECURE FUTURE

It’s good to understand the state of the world’s water supply and demand, but
water stress doesn’t necessarily lead to water crisis. For example, places like
Singapore and the U.S. city of Las Vegas prove that societies can thrive even
under the most water-scarce conditions by employing techniques like removing
water-thirsty grass, desalination, and wastewater treatment and reuse.

In fact, WRI research shows that solving global water challenges is cheaper than
you might think, costing the world about 1% of GDP, or 29 cents per person, per
day from 2015 to 2030. What’s missing is the political will and financial
backing to make these cost-effective solutions a reality.

A few key ways to improve water management and reduce water stress include:

 * Countries can improve their water governance, incentivize water efficiency in
   agriculture, adopt integrated water resource management, and enhance water
   infrastructure through nature-based solutions and green infrastructure.
   Protecting and restoring wetlands, mangroves and forests can not only improve
   water quality and build resilience against droughts and floods, but also save
   money on water treatment costs.
 * International development banks and other lenders should consider strategic
   debt relief programs, like debt-for-nature swaps, or debt relief in return
   for a commitment to invest in biodiversity or resilient infrastructure, such
   as mangrove restoration or wetland conservation. These nature-based solutions
   can achieve positive climate and water outcomes in countries unable to afford
   improved water management on their own.
 * Policymakers in water-stressed countries should prioritize water-prudent
   energy sources like solar and wind to avoid power shutdowns caused by water
   shortages.
 * Cities should develop urban water resilience action plans, learning from the
   group of six African cities already piloting such approaches. Treating and
   reusing wastewater could also create new water sources for cities.
 * Farmers should use more efficient water measures, such as switching to
   water-efficient crops or using methods like sprinkler or drip irrigation
   versus flooding fields.
 * Companies should set science-based water targets, which are in line with what
   the science says is “enough” to stay within Earth’s limits and meet society’s
   needs, learning from a growing number of businesses that have already
   set such targets.

Every level of government, as well as communities and businesses, must step up
to build a water-secure future for all. The world will ultimately require an
all-of-the-above approach, as well as solutions specific to individual
catchments and regions.

These findings may be daunting, but with the right management, every country can
prevent water stress from turning into water crisis.





RELEVANT WORK

Freshwater


AQUEDUCT 4.0 CURRENT AND FUTURE COUNTRY RANKINGS

Data August 16, 2023

Freshwater


AQUEDUCT 4.0 CURRENT AND FUTURE GLOBAL MAPS DATA

Data August 16, 2023

Freshwater


AQUEDUCT 4.0: UPDATED DECISION-RELEVANT GLOBAL WATER RISK INDICATORS

Research August 16, 2023



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