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The danger of division, plus: how Russia might advance this year; did US
diplomacy prevent a wider war?; and did we learn the right lessons from Covid? …

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global
Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

 

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May 16, 2024

Assassination Attempt Puts Slovakia’s Polarization in Spotlight

An assassination attempt on Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, described as
“politically motivated” and a “lone wolf” attack, has put the country’s
political divisions in the spotlight.
 
Fico reportedly remains in serious but stable condition. In a shocking episode
caught on video, Fico was shot five times at relatively close range in broad
daylight, while approaching a small crowd of people after an off-site government
meeting in the town of Handlova. Police apprehended the 71-year-old suspected
gunman. Deputy Prime Minister Tomáš Taraba said he believed Fico would survive.

 

The prime minister himself is controversial. As The Washington Post’s Emily
Rauhala, Lodeday Morris, Ladka Baerova and Niha Masih write, Fico has been “a
polarizing figure in his country and within the European Union.” Fico announced
in October that Slovakia would halt weapons shipments to Ukraine. His “rhetoric
in recent years has been laced with fringe conspiracy theories,” and he has
pushed to replace Slovakia’s public broadcaster “with a new channel under
greater government control,” the Post authors note. Warning that confusion and
pro-Russian disinformation could follow the assassination attempt, Michael
Toomey writes for The Conversation that “Fico is considered one of the most
pro-Russian political leaders in Europe.”
 
It’s Slovakia’s overall climate of political division, however—not any specific
controversy involving Fico—that is drawing the most attention. Political
economist and central-Europe expert Soňa Muzikárová writes in an Atlantic
Council roundup: “Slovakia’s politics and society are unprecedentedly polarized,
which to some extent is the result of a pervasively uncivil political culture,
amplified by social media, as well as citizens’ digital and civic illiteracy.
What happened is a testament to the worrisome state of Slovakia’s democracy.” At
Brussels Signal, Peter Caddle writes: “While the gunman’s motives remain
unclear, many allies of the Slovak PM have opted to blame the media and the
ruling left-nationalist Government’s opposition for the attack.”

How Russia Might Advance This Year

“Residents of Kharkiv have been monitoring reports with increasing urgency for
the past five days as a new Russian offensive edges closer to the city,” Maria
Avdeeva writes for the Atlantic Council.

 

It’s the latest sign of Russia’s plodding advance. Kyiv’s defenses have suffered
seriously under two major problems—a lack of manpower and the long delay of
additional US military aid, which congressional Republicans blocked before
approving—as The New York Times’ David Sanger, Julian Barnes and Kim Barker
write. They note some Western worries about the war: “Some veterans of dealing
with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s serial confrontations are unsurprised
at this turn in events. ‘Russia oftentimes starts its wars poorly and finishes
strong,’ Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser under President George
W. Bush, said at a Harvard conference on Friday. Now, he said, Russia has
‘brought its mass’—a far larger population to draw troops from, and a ‘huge
military infrastructure’—to mount a comeback.”
 
As for what might happen during the rest of the year, keen war observer Jack
Watling of the UK-based think tank Royal United Services Institute writes that
Russia has stretched Ukrainian forces thin across a long front. Depleted
Ukrainian air defenses have allowed Russia to fly glide bombs and reconnaissance
drones deeper into Ukrainian territory.
 
“Having stretched the Ukrainians out, the contours of the Russian summer
offensive are easy to discern,” Watling writes. “First, there will be the push
against Kharkiv. Ukraine must commit troops to defend its second largest city,
and given the size of the Russian group of forces in the area, this will draw in
reserves of critical materiel, from air defences to artillery. Second, Russia
will apply pressure on the other end of the line, initially threatening to
reverse Ukraine’s gains from its 2023 offensive, and secondly putting at risk
the city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine should be able to blunt this attack, but this
will require the commitment of reserve units.”



Did US Diplomacy Prevent a Wider Middle East War?

Last month, Israel and Iran appeared dangerously close to sliding into a
catastrophic all-out war. A strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus,
which had killed Iranian military commanders, was followed by a large Iranian
drone-and-missile assault on Israel directly—a disturbing development, as it set
a new precedent in a long-simmering, previously covert conflict between the two
enemies.

In a Foreign Affairs essay, Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced
International Studies writes that US diplomacy was key to avoiding the fearee
escalatory spiral. To Nasr, that means US diplomacy still has a vital role to
play in the region. Nasr writes: “After Iran retaliated, Washington and its
allies redirected their efforts, this time leaning on Israel to temper its
response. The diplomatic surge succeeded in keeping the crisis contained. It
also made clear that the United States’ highest priority is to prevent the war
in Gaza from igniting a regional conflagration and dragging the United States
into another costly war in the Middle East. A fact working in Washington’s favor
is that neither Iran nor Israel is keen on direct conflict, their recent show of
force notwithstanding. … The silver lining to the crisis in April was that
Washington and Tehran talked behind the scenes throughout the two weeks. Their
communication was key to averting catastrophe.”

Did We Learn the Right Lessons From Covid?

A large avian-flu outbreak among animals is raising fears that
disease-mitigation lessons went unlearned during the Covid-19 pandemic, or that
the wrong lessons will be applied. In a New York Times guest opinion essay,
disease historian John M. Barry writes that public-health officials “must be
cautious about the lessons they might think Covid-19 left behind. We need to be
prepared to fight the next war, not the last one. Two assumptions based on our
Covid experience would be especially dangerous and could cause tremendous
damage, even if policymakers realized their mistake and adjusted quickly. The
first involves who is most likely to die from a pandemic virus. Covid primarily
killed people 65 years and older, but Covid was an anomaly. … The second
dangerous assumption is that public health measures like school and business
closings and masking had little impact. That is incorrect.”
 
Noting that the “cornerstone of infectious disease preparedness” consists of
surveillance, testing, vaccines, and antiviral treatments, University of
Edinburgh global public-health professor and Guardian columnist Devi Sridhar
writes: “With post Covid-19 fatigue, the bigger problem is bringing the public
along and communicating the facts so that they are trusted and believed. With so
much—often understandable—mistrust in our current political leadership,
authorities like chief medical officers and independent government advisers
become crucial.”



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