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Economics


DIMON WARNS 7% FED RATE STILL POSSIBLE, TIMES OF INDIA SAYS

 * Difference between 5% and 7% more painful than 3% to 5% was
 * Comments come amid view that Fed nearing end of tightening

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Dimon Warns World May Not Be Ready for Fed at 7%: TOI
Dimon Warns World May Not Be Ready for Fed at 7%: TOI
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Dimon Warns World May Not Be Ready for Fed at 7%: TOI
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By Yi Wei Wong and Swati Pandey
September 26, 2023 at 1:36 AM GMT+1
Updated on
September 26, 2023 at 1:43 PM GMT+1

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2:53



Sign up for the India Edition newsletter by Menaka Doshi – an insider's guide to
the emerging economic powerhouse, and the billionaires and businesses behind its
rise, delivered weekly.

Markets may be predicting the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, but
Jamie Dimon is still telling clients to prepare for a worst-case scenario of
benchmark interest rates hitting 7% along with stagflation.

“We urge our clients to be prepared for that kind of stress,” the JPMorgan Chase
& Co. CEO said in an interview Bloomberg Terminalwith the Times of India, saying
a hard landing remains a risk for the US economy.



His comments contrast with the consensus view after 5.25 percentage points of
hikes that lifted the benchmark rate to 5.5% — the highest level in 22 years. US
policymakers have signaled that rates will need to stay higher for longer to
contain inflation, though money markets are pricing in cuts from next year.

The highest forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists last weekBloomberg
Terminal was for 6% at the end of 2023.

Read More: What Are ‘Neutral’ and ‘Terminal’ Interest Rates?: QuickTake

“If they are going to have lower volumes and higher rates, there will be stress
in the system,” Dimon said while visiting Mumbai for a JPMorgan investor summit.
“Warren Buffett says you find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
That will be the tide going out.”

Dimon, who has said rates may need to rise further to fight inflation, added
that the difference between 5% and 7% would be more painful for the economy than
going from 3% to 5% was.

The US dollar extended its rise on Tuesday, tracking 10-year Treasury yields —
which to some extent was driven by hawkish Fedspeak and Dimon’s warning,
according to Christopher Wong, Singapore-based FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese
Banking Corp.

Expand

Jamie DimonPhotographer: Emily Elconin/Bloomberg

If the key rate climbed to 7%, it would have serious implications for American
businesses and consumers. Already, economists put the probability of a US
recession over the next 12 months at 55% — and that’s more optimistic than
Bloomberg Economics’ prediction of a slumpBloomberg Terminal as soon as this
year.



A rate of 7% would douse recent optimism among Fed officials about their ability
to engineer a soft landing in the economy with the unemployment rate still very
low at 3.8% and signs of prices easing.

Read More:Fed’s Kashkari Says He Expects One More Rate Hike This YearOil Nearing
$100 Is Red Flag for Central Banks’ Inflation FightWorld Awash in $300 Trillion
Debt Fears Permanently Higher Rates

“Going from zero to 2% was almost no increase. Going from zero to 5% caught some
people off guard, but no one would have taken 5% out of the realm of
possibility,” Dimon said. “I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7%.”

The Fed left the target range for its benchmark rate unchanged in a widely
expected move earlier this month, though fresh quarterly projections showed 12
of 19 officials favored another hike this year. One policymaker saw rates
peaking above 6%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said future rate decisions will be based on
incoming data.

“The world is certainly not prepared for a 7% Federal Reserve funds rate,”
Charlie Jamieson, chief investment officer at Jamieson Coote Bonds, told
Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.

“At that level we would expect that we would have a deflationary asset unwind,
it would burst a lot of asset bubbles, it just simply wouldn’t be sustainable.”



— With assistance by Derek Wallbank, Abhishek Vishnoi, Kyungjin Yoo, and Michael
Sin

(Adds detail throughout.)

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