www.semafor.com
Open in
urlscan Pro
2a04:4e42:600::347
Public Scan
URL:
https://www.semafor.com/article/10/25/2023/the-ai-booms-chip-shortage-has-an-unlikely-hero-the-blockchain
Submission: On April 30 via api from US — Scanned from DE
Submission: On April 30 via api from US — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 8 forms found in the DOM
<form id="inline-technology-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form" novalidate=""><input type="text" data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" name="newsletter" value="technology">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Technology:</b> <!-- -->What’s next in the new era of tech.<!-- -->
<a href="/newsletters/technology/latest" aria-label="Read the latest technology newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:R7d5brnnnlata:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:R7d5brnnnlata:"
autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false" type="email" class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" name="email" value=""><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form id="inline-principals-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form styles_signUpForm__1Ef9d" novalidate=""><input data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" type="text" value="principals"
name="newsletter">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Principals:</b> What the White House is reading.
<a href="/newsletters/principals/latest" aria-label="Read the latest principals newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:r0:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:r0:" autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false"
class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" type="email" value="" name="email"><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form id="inline-flagship-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form styles_signUpForm__1Ef9d" novalidate=""><input data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" type="text" value="flagship"
name="newsletter">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Flagship:</b> The daily global news briefing you can trust.
<a href="/newsletters/flagship/latest" aria-label="Read the latest flagship newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:r1:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:r1:" autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false"
class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" type="email" value="" name="email"><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form id="inline-flagship-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form styles_signUpForm__1Ef9d" novalidate=""><input data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" type="text" value="flagship"
name="newsletter">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Flagship:</b> The daily global news briefing you can trust.
<a href="/newsletters/flagship/latest" aria-label="Read the latest flagship newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:r2:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:r2:" autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false"
class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" type="email" value="" name="email"><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form id="inline-technology-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form styles_signUpForm__1Ef9d" novalidate=""><input data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" type="text" value="technology"
name="newsletter">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Technology:</b> What’s next in the new era of tech.
<a href="/newsletters/technology/latest" aria-label="Read the latest technology newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:r3:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:r3:" autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false"
class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" type="email" value="" name="email"><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form id="inline-principals-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form styles_signUpForm__1Ef9d" novalidate=""><input data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" type="text" value="principals"
name="newsletter">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Principals:</b> What the White House is reading.
<a href="/newsletters/principals/latest" aria-label="Read the latest principals newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:r4:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:r4:" autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false"
class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" type="email" value="" name="email"><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form id="inline-principals-form" class="styles_form__Ja4LQ liveramp-inline-signup-form styles_signUpForm__1Ef9d" novalidate=""><input data-testid="hidden-newsletter" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" type="text" value="principals"
name="newsletter">
<p class="styles_intro__VdMFa styles_intro__uJGWQ"><b class="styles_bold__iCS55">Sign up for Semafor Principals:</b> What the White House is reading.
<a href="/newsletters/principals/latest" aria-label="Read the latest principals newsletter">Read it now</a>.</p>
<fieldset class="styles_fieldset__w7oGb"><label class="styles_hiddenLabel__AQc10" for="newsletter-sign-up-:r5:">Your Email address</label><input placeholder="Your Email address" id="newsletter-sign-up-:r5:" autocomplete="email" aria-invalid="false"
class="styles_emailInput__1fIkY" required="" type="email" value="" name="email"><button class="styles_signUpButton__yraUk">Sign Up</button>
<div id="inline-newsletter-feedback" class="styles_feedback__1GX0T styles_right__NJMz0 undefined" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</fieldset>
</form><form class="liveramp-newsletter-signup-barrier css-1oxmwkh" id="newsletter-sign-up-barrier" novalidate=""><input type="text" aria-hidden="true" readonly="" hidden="" name="newsletter" value="technology">
<div class="css-ec2iqt">
<p tabindex="-1" id="barrier-title" class="css-yluo3e"><span>Sign up for Semafor<!-- --> <span class="css-w8sqnb">technology</span></span><img alt="" loading="lazy" width="25" height="28" decoding="async" data-nimg="1"
style="color:transparent;height:28px;width:25px;margin:5px 10px" src="https://static.semafor.com/_next/static/media/icon-tech.7591007e.svg"></p><b class="css-1budjld">What’s next in the new era of tech.<br></b>In your inbox, twice per
week.<!-- --> <a href="/newsletters/technology/latest" aria-label="Read the latest technology newsletter">Read it now</a>.
</div><label for="newsletter-sign-up-:R7elrnnnlata:" class="css-r4iybe">Email address</label>
<div style="position:relative">
<div class="css-8jslfv"><svg width="20" height="17" viewBox="0 0 20 17" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
<path d="M4 4.5V12.5H16V4.5M4 4.5H16M4 4.5L10 9.5L16 4.5" stroke="#1F1D1A" stroke-width="0.75"></path>
</svg><input id="newsletter-sign-up-:R7elrnnnlata:" autocomplete="email" placeholder="Your email address" type="email" required="" aria-invalid="false" class="css-rbiwe3" name="email" value=""></div>
<div id="feedback-newsletter-sign-up-:R7elrnnnlata:" aria-hidden="true" class="css-1hxvbez"></div>
</div>
<div class="css-huux4w"></div><button data-testid="barrier-sign-up-button" type="submit" class="css-qame98">Sign up for free</button><button data-testid="barrier-sign-in-button" type="submit" class="css-rfogjk">Sign in</button>
<div class="css-yp48zo">Already subscribed? Sign in and we won’t show you this message again.</div><button type="button" class="css-z28g56">Take me back to the article <svg width="16" height="20" viewBox="0 0 16 20" fill="none"
xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:16px;height:20px">
<path
d="M5 15.1734C5.54701 15.4624 6.02564 15.7418 6.4359 16.0116C6.84615 16.3006 7.18803 16.58 7.46154 16.8497L7.46154 -7.73355e-07L8.53846 -5.37986e-07L8.53846 16.8497C8.82906 16.58 9.17948 16.3006 9.58974 16.0116C10 15.7418 10.4701 15.4624 11 15.1734L11 16.185C9.75213 17.3988 8.82906 18.6705 8.23077 20L7.76923 20C7.18803 18.6705 6.26496 17.3988 5 16.185L5 15.1734Z"
fill="#53524C"></path>
</svg></button>
</form>Text Content
We use essential cookies to make our site work. With your consent, we may also use non-essential cookies to improve user experience, personalize advertisements, and analyze website traffic. For these reasons, we may share your site usage data with our social media, advertising, and analytics partners. By clicking “Accept,” you agree to our website's cookie use as described in our Cookie Policy. You can change your cookie settings at any time by clicking “Preferences.” PreferencesDeclineAccept 2:12 AM Tuesday April 30, 2024 Sign In EventsNewsletters * Home * politics * business * technology * net zero * africa * security * media * Global Elections * * Events * Newsletters * * About * Speakers Bureau * Careers * Privacy © 2024 Semafor Inc. * Home * politics * business * technology * net zero * africa * security * media * Global Elections * AboutSpeakers BureauCareers Privacy© 2024 Semafor Inc. * D.C. * BXL * Lagos * Dubai * Beijing * SG 2:12 AM Tuesday April 30, 2024 * D.C. * BXL * Lagos * Dubai * Beijing * SG Sign In EventsNewsletters IntelligentTransparentGlobal * Home * politics * business * technology * net zero * africa * security * media * Global Elections * * Events * Newsletters * * About * Speakers Bureau * Careers * Privacy © 2024 Semafor Inc. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Homepoliticsbusinesstechnologynet zeroafricasecuritymediaGlobal Elections -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reed Albergotti Updated Oct 25, 2023, 12:52pm EDTOct 25, 2023, 6:52pm GMT+2 techbusiness Copy link THE AI BOOM’S CHIP SHORTAGE HAS AN UNLIKELY HERO: THE BLOCKCHAIN Semafor/Al Lucca PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Technology: What’s next in the new era of tech. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up In this article: THE SCENE KNOW MORE REED’S VIEW ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT NOTABLE CORRECTION THE SCENE Blockchain and crypto have been criticized for years as a “solution in search of a problem.” Now some industry entrepreneurs may have found the problem: A shortage of compute power needed to train AI models. The solution: Researchers and startups that can’t get graphics processing units (GPUs) can use blockchain-based markets to quickly and easily access compute power for a fraction of what major providers charge. AD Bitcoin miners and others spurred an arms race for GPUs needed to conduct calculations to keep systems running, but demand slumped when the digital currency market collapsed last year. Now instead of simply cannibalizing the struggling crypto industry, some AI companies are leaning on the blockchain to distribute those same GPUs. Ishan Dhanani, a computer science graduate student at Columbia University, is an example of how upstarts are getting around GPU shortages through the blockchain. He wanted to start fine tuning Meta’s LLama2 open-source AI model to experiment on it, but ran into the reality that huge companies have swallowed up most of the compute power. He couldn’t obtain any through market leader Amazon Web Services, and smaller providers were always sold out. Getting access through Columbia was also a headache. AD That led him to the Akash Network, one of a handful of companies that have created protocols to allow owners of GPUs to rent them out on the blockchain, earning tokens for every minute the GPU is utilized. Dhanani was able to access a $15,000 Nvidia A100 for $1.10 per hour through Akash. It took him about seven hours to complete his work, for about the cost of a beer. Companies like Akash can offer cheaper access partly because the protocols are set up to run on their own, like a version of Airbnb or Uber without those companies taking commissions. Community members on the blockchain, incentivized with tokens, handle the nuts and bolts of the operation. As a result, the costs are low, with nobody except for the owners of the GPUs earning any significant revenue on the transaction. The experience spurred Dhanani and two friends to launch Agora Labs a few months ago to help what he calls “the GPU poor” more easily book time on GPUs via the blockchain. “The OpenAIs and Anthropics can’t be the only ones that have the power to train and host models like ChatGPT,” he said. AD UK-based Gensyn, which recently announced a $43 million Series A funding round, represents a huge venture capital bet that blockchain has a future facilitating the sale of GPU time for the AI industry. Gensyn is building a system that would vastly simplify the pricing model for training in AI, according to an interview with the company’s co-founders. Instead of paying for time on a GPU, Gensyn plans to estimate the overall time and cost of the training job and then spread the tasks around to computers all around the world, searching for the best prices. That strategy involves tackling a thorny technological problem: The more spread out the compute resources are, the more complicated the training gets. Gensyn co-founder Ben Fielding said when he was earning his PhD in deep learning, the scarcity of compute resources meant he was unable to fully complete his research in automating the development of AI models. “The only people who could do that research were Google and Microsoft,” he said. “I realized if I was in that position, a lot of other people in the world were in that position, which meant we weren’t moving as quickly towards a machine-learning future as we could be.” In this article: THE SCENE KNOW MORE REED’S VIEW ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT NOTABLE CORRECTION KNOW MORE Fielding said that AI research has evolved around the world’s most powerful graphics processors. But he argued that if a massive network of GPUs were available on the blockchain, the types of AI models would adapt so they could be trained on a wider variety of processors. As Gensyn readies its product, Akash Network says it will soon help facilitate the training of the first AI foundation model using GPUs on the blockchain. Startup Thumper AI is building a product that will allow artists to create their own AI models based on their personal work,and then sell access to those models. To do that, it needs access to GPUs to fine-tune its proprietary model using Stable Diffusion. But Thumper CEO Logan Cerkovnik ran into a familiar problem: AWS would not give him access to the number of GPUs he needed to train the model. He also looked at some smaller providers and companies that resell GPU space. But he said the blockchain solution made more sense. With data center providers, he said, there are conversations with salespeople, price negotiations, and a vetting process. On Akash, the transaction is quick and easy, he said. Some companies that provide compute power for crypto firms have begun offering up those resources to the AI industry, like Foundry. It repurposed its data centers, used primarily to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency, and added additional GPU capacity to run AI models through another decentralized platform, Bittensor. It’s also allowing its GPUs to be rented out on the blockchain through Akash. “We asked ourselves ‘how else can we support the decentralized infrastructure thesis that Foundry holds as a whole?’” said Tommy Eastman, Accelerated Compute Engineering Lead. While protocols like Akash are being used to train AI models, Bittensor is being used to run those models, a process known as “inference.” On Bittensor, users can play around with a chatbot similar to ChatGPT. The difference is that each prompt is sent to a wide network of entities on the blockchain, which get assigned the prompt based on the compute needs. The winning bid receives cryptocurrency as payment. REED’S VIEW In tech, the people who build platforms often can’t imagine how they will ultimately be used. Steve Jobs probably never thought the iPhone would enable Uber. Mark Zuckerberg likely didn’t envision Facebook would lead to the creation of Zynga. The idea behind the blockchain is to build the platform to end all platforms — the ultimate canvas for the development of new ideas, without a central owner, that can’t be corrupted and manipulated. Sure, it’s idealistic and possibly naive. And the blockchain has attracted plenty of unsavory people who saw an opportunity to make a quick buck. And yet, here we are. Another platform with an unintended use case that seems, well, pretty useful. It’s ironic because the massive compute resources necessary to make the crypto industry work were viewed almost as the industry’s Achilles’ heel. Companies like Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin because it was too energy intensive and thus a big contributor to climate change. That Achilles’ heel may become crypto’s saving grace. Blockchain got really good at efficiently selling compute power to the highest bidder with very little fuss. And now, the generative-AI craze has spawned a new industry that is even more energy-hungry than crypto. And, unlike crypto, it is unlikely to slow down any time soon. There’s another reason this could work: It’s not a get-rich-quick scheme. One of the biggest problems with crypto was that the financial speculation essentially spoiled all of its ideas. People invented “initial coin offerings” and the pump-and-dump schemes immediately tanked the idea. As soon as non-fungible tokens (NFTs) were created, speculators jacked up the prices so quickly that most people couldn’t participate. This new model isn’t built for financial speculation. Most customers acquiring the GPU-time will be paying in regular currency, and the market for GPU-time will always be somewhat anchored to what cloud providers are charging. The tokens will mainly be used on the back end to facilitate the transactions and incentivize people to take part in the maintenance of the system. And there are some interesting long-term possibilities here. (Sorry, but the following is super geeky). If the blockchain gets better at distributing compute power, significantly lowering latency, you could see something like a decentralized cloud. In that scenario, all of those powerful devices we carry in our pockets and have sitting around at home could be used more efficiently as part of powerful global computers, all meshed together into a communications network that gives us constant connectivity. ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT Some people argue that democratizing the ability to train AI models is a potentially dangerous development. People could make models that act maliciously, violate copyright laws, and potentially even develop into dangerous, out-of-control malicious actors. NOTABLE * People are going to great lengths to find GPUs, as this New York Times story chronicles. CORRECTION Comments attributed to a Gensyn co-founder were made by Ben Fielding. An earlier version of this story misattributed his comments to the company’s other co-founder, Harry Grieve. AD Diego Mendoza Apr 29, 2024, 10:28pm GMT+2 securitynet zerobusinessEurope Copy link SEMAFOR SIGNALS Supported by XI DUE IN EUROPE AS CONTINENT SPLIT ON POLITICAL RIVALRY BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BEIJING Insights from L’Indépendant, VSquare, and Bloomberg REUTERS/Tingshu Wang PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Principals: What the White House is reading. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up THE NEWS Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit France, Serbia, and Hungary starting May 5, the country’s foreign ministry announced Monday. The tour — Xi’s first to Europe since the COVID-19 pandemic — could deepen divisions between the continent’s leaders over China’s role in Europe’s clean energy transition and the Russia-Ukraine war. Xi’s visit comes just weeks after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited China. While there, he warned Xi about Chinese overcapacity — or excessive trade — of green tech like solar panels and electric vehicles, which some EU leaders believe are undercutting rival European firms. Xi’s visit also comes as Western leaders worry China could take a more active role in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Observers are keen to see whether Xi will have influence over Europe’s security policy going forward. SIGNALS Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories. MACRON PUSHES FOR ‘STRATEGIC AUTONOMY’ FROM WASHINGTON Sources: L'Indépendant, TLDR News French President Emmanuel Macron called for European “strategic autonomy” last week, in what many saw as a rebuff of Washington’s control over European security via NATO. Europe “must show that it is never a vassal of the United States,” Macron said. Europe could “die” if it loses influence amid the power struggle between Washington and Beijing, the French leader added, according to TLDR news. Instead, he proposed the bloc can stay geopolitically relevant if it balances power between the US and Asia. Macron’s words are a contrast to the shared belief of many EU officials that the US is vital to the bloc’s security. Some officials said Macron is promoting French industrial interests — specifically, military hardware manufacturing — according to L’Indépendant. CASH-STRAPPED HUNGARY USES CHINA AS BARGAINING CHIP WITH EU Sources: Semafor, BBC, VSquare While most EU leaders decry China’s flooding of the green tech market, Hungary’s right-wing government has embraced Beijing and become a hub for Chinese investment in electric vehicle parts and batteries, as Semafor previously reported. But Budapest’s coziness with Beijing might be a strategic ploy to get more EU financial support, according to VSquare, a European investigative news site. China has promised to finance the modernization of Hungarian railways and a new oil pipeline to Serbia as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Hungary is unable to pay its own way because the EU froze infrastructure funding, known as cohesion funds, to Hungary over the country’s backsliding of democracy. Hungary repeatedly “threatens the EU Commission with increasing reliance on Chinese financing if the cohesion funds are not released,” VSquare reported. BELGRADE VISIT SIGNALS CHINA’S SUPPORT OF RUSSIA Source: Bloomberg Xi is expected to visit Serbia close to the 25th anniversary of the 1999 US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. The incident killed three Chinese journalists and fueled Beijing’s historic anti-NATO stance and alignment with Russia. Former US President Bill Clinton apologized for the bombing and said it was an error caused by outdated maps. But most Chinese still consider the bombing intentional, as one China scholar told Bloomberg; Chinese authorities have brought up the bombing in defending Russia’s position of NATO aggression along its borders. By visiting a European country that has so far refused to support Western sanctions on Russia, Beijing may be signaling to Washington that it is “going to stand by Russia and deepen their partnership,” one China watcher told Bloomberg. Helen Li Updated Apr 29, 2024, 9:58pm GMT+2 Europe Copy link SEMAFOR SIGNALS Supported by G7 LEADERS AGREE TO SHUT DOWN COAL-POWERED PLANTS Insights from E&E News, Reuters, MIT Technology Review REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Flagship: The daily global news briefing you can trust. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up THE NEWS Energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations tentatively agreed to shut down all their respective coal-powered plants by 2035. The deal was announced by Andrew Bowie, the UK’s Minister for Nuclear and Renewables, at the group’s climate talks in Turin. The deal marks a significant step by wealthy nations in the transition away from fossil fuels. The ministers also plan to discuss expanding electricity storage capacity during the talks, according to the Financial Times, to aid in the shift to renewable sources such as solar or wind power. A final communique will be released Tuesday. The G7 coal target follows on the heels of new US Environmental Protection Agency rules released last week that would force coal plants to cut or capture 90% of carbon emissions by 2032, or shut down by 2039. SIGNALS Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories. EU NATIONS LEAD COAL PLANT PHASEOUT Sources: Reuters, Euronews, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Of the G7 members, Italy leads the fossil fuels phaseout. Italy has just six coal-powered electricity stations, and plans to shut them all down by 2028. Other European countries, including Portugal, Belgium, Austria, and Sweden, have already stopped using coal for electricity. Italy is in a powerful position, however: The phaseout of coal across the bloc and the Russia-Ukraine war mean it could become Europe’s go-to gas hub; the country recently inked deals with Libya’s national oil corporation to develop offshore gas fields. “By using gas as the central pillar of its energy strategy, Italy is not only slowing renewable growth but also serving as an example to other gas-dependent countries such as Malta, Ireland, the Netherlands and Greece that this model can be followed,” warned the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. G20 NATIONS MIGHT NOT FOLLOW THE G7’S LEAD Sources: CNN, Reuters What the G7 does often has a “trickle down” effect on the larger Group of 20 nations’ fossil fuel policies, CNN reported. The G20 includes big emitters China and India, and major producers like Saudi Arabia. But getting broader support for the 2035 target could meet resistance: In 2023, G20 leaders couldn’t agree on how to reduce carbon emissions at talks in Chennai, India, and some countries opposed mitigation targets entirely because they could put limits on critical infrastructure growth. India has a growing demand for air conditioning and other power-hungry appliances, Reuters noted, which could deter making big cuts to fossil fuel-powered electricity. And despite a growing green energy sector, China accounted for most of the world’s new coal capacity in 2023. China has also rolled out stimulus measures that “could raise overall power use and emissions in the world’s top polluter,” wrote Reuters’ Global Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire. CARBON CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY REMAINS EXPENSIVE AND ELUSIVE Sources: E&E News, Reuters, MIT Technology Review The new EPA rules on coal plants bring into sharp focus the promise and problems with carbon capture and storage technology, which puts emissions into long-term storage — often underground — instead of releasing them into the atmosphere. A Tennessee Valley Authority review noted that carbon capture remains “an emerging technology and as a [best system of emission reductions] has not been adequately demonstrated,’’ E&E News reported. The technology is certainly expensive, but it is also proving challenging to implement. Two Department of Energy experts told MIT Technology Review that the demand for low-cost, high volume carbon capture and storage could undermine how these efforts are measured and verified — potentially replicating the problems with carbon offsetting, another emissions fix. AD Mathias Hammer Apr 29, 2024, 9:13pm GMT+2 Copy link SEMAFOR SIGNALS Supported by PUTIN EYES FIRST TAX HIKE IN A DECADE TO FUND WAR Insights from Bloomberg, Financial Times, and The Wilson Center Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via Reuters PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Flagship: The daily global news briefing you can trust. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up THE NEWS Russian President Vladimir Putin is mulling the country’s first significant tax hike in more than ten years, a sign of the rising strain that the war in Ukraine has had on the economy and government coffers. The Kremlin is leaning towards imposing tax increases on corporate profits and high-earning individuals that would net the Russian government tens of billions of dollars, Bloomberg and Important Stories, a Russian independent outlet, reported, although a final announcement is not expected until the summer. Putin has floated the idea repeatedly in public over the last few months, as the government braces for an expected deficit of 1.6 trillion rubles ($17 billion). SIGNALS Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories. RUSSIA PUSHES TO BOOST REVENUE WHEREVER IT CAN Sources: The Wilson Center, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The New York Times Russian defense spending has tripled since the war in Ukraine began, to hit 8% of GDP, leading the Kremlin to look for ways to eke out additional funds wherever it can. Since 2022, Russia has reformed oil taxes in a way that has added billions in additional revenue, imposed heavy exit taxes on Western companies hoping to leave Russia, and implemented a windfall profit tax. “They need to do what’s called income mobilization,” a former official at the Russian Central Bank told The New York Times. “And increasing taxation is part of this.” RUSSIAN OIL PRICE CAP HAS BECOME ‘UNENFORCEABLE’ Sources: Bloomberg, Oilprice, Reuters A price cap on Russian oil that was meant to deprive the Kremlin of key revenue has become “increasingly unenforceable,” a group of leading maritime insurers warned the UK, according to Bloomberg. Companies based in G7 countries are only allowed to assist with transporting Russian oil if the price of Russian crude remains under $60 a barrel. But with Russia’s shadow oil fleet steadily growing, Western countries are losing their ability to implement the price cap, Bloomberg reported. By the end of last year, nearly all of Russia’s crude was being sold above the price cap, Oilprice reported. Russia’s oil and gas revenue has surged over the past months, with April’s revenues set to be almost double what they were a year ago, Reuters reported. Diego Mendoza Apr 29, 2024, 6:02pm GMT+2 techEurope Copy link SEMAFOR SIGNALS Supported by EU REPORTEDLY PLANS TO INVESTIGATE FACEBOOK AND INSTAGRAM Insights from Politico, The Telegraph, and WIRED REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Technology: What’s next in the new era of tech. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up THE NEWS The EU is expected to launch a probe into Meta over violations of the bloc’s Digital Services Act (DSA) for failing to contain Russian disinformation on Facebook and Instagram, Politico and the Financial Times reported Monday. EU regulators believe Meta has failed to clearly identify political ads or AI-generated content as required by the DSA. European governments have warned that Russian propaganda has been spreading on Meta’s platforms ahead of June’s EU parliamentary elections. Meta is now the third tech company after X and TikTok to face EU scrutiny over potentially harmful content. The tech giant has been in European regulators’ crosshairs for months over several issues, including its content moderation of the Israel-Gaza war and Instagram’s mental health impact on teens. Meta is also suing the European Commission over what it claims is a disproportionate levy to fund DSA enforcement. SIGNALS Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA FUELS ANTI-UKRAINE SENTIMENT Source: Politico A Russian disinformation campaign called Doppelganger has been flooding Facebook despite Meta’s assurances that it is complying with EU content moderation requirements. Between August 2023 and March, the campaign reached five to 10 times more people than previously thought, largely targeting European farmers protesting over environmental regulations and Ukrainian grain imports. Their protests were “fertile for Russian propaganda,” Politico reported, as Kremlin-linked social media accounts posted updates portraying Ukrainian goods as unfair competition. The EU’s DSA requires platforms like Facebook to label political or AI-generated content, but over 65% of political posts were not labeled and less than 5% were taken down, according to the AI Forensics research group. Meta has downplayed the concerns and told Politico it has seen a “consistent decline” in Russian disinformation. EUROPEAN SOCIAL MEDIA APPS ARE FAILING AS ALTERNATIVES Sources: Euronews.Next, The Telegraph In the wake of increasing scrutiny over US Big Tech, European governments have had limited success in pushing lawmakers and bureaucrats to use homegrown technology with more privacy features. France, for instance, banned ministers from using the Meta-owned WhatsApp last year, instead requiring them to use the French-made Olvid messaging app. Other platforms are losing ground: The EU on Monday announced it was shutting down EUVoice — a Mastodon-powered “privacy-friendly” X rival that only had 18 active users remaining since its 2022 launch, The Telegraph reported. US CONCERNED ABOUT CHINA DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN, BUT IT HAS LIMITED IMPACT Sources: CNN, WIRED China is the US’ biggest concern when it comes to disinformation ahead of November’s presidential election. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was evidence of Beijing’s attempts to interfere in the upcoming elections, and he warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week against doing so. But China’s efforts have had limited impact, experts told WIRED, as state actors generating disinformation have little cultural context over how to sway public opinion: Beijing-linked accounts often resort to tactics used in “closed and tightly controlled platforms like WeChat and Weibo” that don’t translate well to platforms like X, one researcher said. Unlike Russian propaganda, Chinese disinformation campaigns don’t “synchronize their efforts,” another researcher said, doing little to amplify political messages. AD Jenna Moon Apr 29, 2024, 4:23pm GMT+2 securityEurope Copy link SEMAFOR SIGNALS Supported by UKRAINIAN FORCES FORCED TO RETREAT FROM PART OF EASTERN FRONT Insights from Politico and the Institute for the Study of War REUTERS/Stringer PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Principals: What the White House is reading. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up THE NEWS Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat from three towns on the eastern front, where Russia’s military is carrying out an assault on the entire 620-mile frontline. Russian troops are encroaching on the town of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian military hub. Kyiv is awaiting aid from the US, which recently voted in favor of a massive package that could resolve some of the Ukrainian military’s shortcomings. SIGNALS Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories. UKRAINE SAYS SUPPLY SHORTAGES CAUSED RETREAT Source: Politico Ukraine’s new military commander-in-chief wrote on Telegram that a shortage of military supplies prompted his troops’ withdrawal from the eastern front, adding that Russian forces are better equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has echoed the concerns, saying that a lack of supplies coming from Western allies has hampered Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia. About $60 billion in US aid will soon arrive in Kyiv — but some Biden administration officials and lawmakers have questioned whether more weapons from Washington will be enough to help Ukraine win the war or temporarily ward Russia off. One US official told Politico that the “immediate goal” is to stem losses and give Ukraine back some momentum, after which the goal is to help regain territory. Will they have what they need to win? Ultimately, yes. But it’s not a guarantee that they will,” the official said. DESPITE WITHDRAWALS, RUSSIAN TROOPS UNLIKELY TO GET STRONG FOOTHOLD Source: Institute for the Study of War Despite the Russian forces’ advancements along the eastern front, it is unlikely that troops will immediately make significant inroads in the area, the Institute for the Study of War noted in an assessment Sunday. Ukraine’s “withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains,” and owing to Ukrainian reinforcements, Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term,” the ISW wrote. Meanwhile, the Russian military may try to make a push towards Pokrovsk, “because there may be greater opportunities for tactical gains in the area west of Avdiivka than towards the north,” the report said. Jenna Moon Updated Apr 29, 2024, 1:27pm GMT+2 securityMiddle East Copy link SEMAFOR SIGNALS Supported by ISRAEL’S ALLIES RENEW PUSH FOR GAZA CEASEFIRE AS FEARS MOUNT OVER RAFAH INVASION Insights from The Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, Haaretz, and Al-Monitor Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters PostEmailWhatsappCopy link Sign up for Semafor Principals: What the White House is reading. Read it now. Your Email addressSign Up THE NEWS Western powers launched a renewed diplomatic push for a ceasefire in Gaza amid growing concerns that the Israel Defense Forces will soon invade the crowded Gazan city of Rafah. Top US and British diplomats met Arab officials in Riyadh on Monday while US President Joe Biden reportedly spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday evening about closing a hostage-release deal with Hamas. Representatives from Israel and Hamas are expected to meet in Cairo for talks Monday. The “atmosphere is positive unless there are new Israeli obstacles,” an official from Hamas told AFP on Sunday, adding that the group had “no major issues” with the latest draft of a hostage-release proposal. SIGNALS Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories. ROUGHLY 1.5% OF GAZA’S POPULATION KILLED IN THE WAR Sources: The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press The Israel-Hamas war has inflicted a massive humanitarian toll on Gaza, with Palestinian health officials noting that more than 34,000 people have been killed in the enclave during the conflict so far. As many as 70% of them are women and children. Authorities are facing difficulties estimating the scale of the war’s civilian toll because the health system has collapsed, and teams are struggling to reach people trapped underneath rubble. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the end [the death toll] is an underestimate,” Rik Peeperkorn, a World Health Organization representative, told The Wall Street Journal. If the IDF launches an invasion of Rafah, a crowded city where more than 1 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, the death toll could rise substantially. ISRAELI, HAMAS TOP BRASS MAY FACE WAR CRIMES CHARGES Source: Haaretz The International Criminal Court may be preparing charges for Hamas leaders over the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, as well as top Israeli officials for war crimes committed in Gaza, Haaretz reported. Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and IDF chief of staff Herzl Halevi are all facing possible ICC arrest warrants. Israeli officials have triggered global outrage for the sometimes inflammatory rhetoric they have used to describe Palestinians in Gaza: Foreign Minister Israel Katz once suggested cutting off Gaza’s water supply, and Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli mused about using nuclear weapons on the enclave. Their statements back the argument “that Israel intentionally harms, starves and expels civilians from Gaza, and is even trying to annihilate the Palestinians as a group,” Eliav Lieblich, of Tel Aviv University, told Haaretz. NETANYAHU SEEING SLIGHT POLLING BUMP Source: Al-Monitor Israel’s leadership saw its support tumble in the months since the war began, but recent polling shows Netanyahu has seen a slight bump in support, Al-Monitor reported. “Netanyahu has not only stemmed the bleeding, but has actually grown stronger,” columnist Mazal Mualem noted. The prime minister has a long history of political savvy, she added, and is often able to turn the public mood back to his favor after periods of mistrust. Among supporters of his Likud party, that support is often stronger: “The more Netanyahu angers his opponents, the greater the support he engenders,” Mualem wrote. AD NewslettersEventsYouTubeTwitterFacebookAboutCareersPrivacyConsent Preferences © 2024 Semafor Inc. Sign up for Semafor technology What’s next in the new era of tech. In your inbox, twice per week. Read it now. Email address Sign up for freeSign in Already subscribed? Sign in and we won’t show you this message again. Take me back to the article