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HILLTOP SECURITIES: SCHOOL DISTRICT CREDIT QUALITY IS STRONG, FORMER MAYOR
BLOOMBERG IS OVERREACHING

by Tom Kozlik, HilltopSecurities
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Resources
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Hilltop Securities
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 * Former mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg’s analysis suffers from
   selection bias, and his conclusion that classrooms will be “half-empty” is an
   overreach.
 * We still have a “Positive” outlook on the school district sector. We continue
   to expect public finance, and school district rating upgrades will outpace
   downgrades in 2022.
 * The substantial amount of federal aid to public finance entities, including
   schools, will allow a softer landing during this and near-term budget
   planning. However, we are on the look-out to make sure that individual
   entities do not lose structural balance.

THE FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK’S CONCLUSION IS TOO NARROW

The founder of Bloomberg LLP and former mayor (2002-2013) of New York City
Michael R. Bloomberg today published an opinion piece titled A Wake-up Call for
Public Education- Falling enrollment in America’s schools is a sign of a system
in crisis. His numbers are somewhat correct, in some places enrollment is
dropping. But, he misses the fact that other locations are also gaining
enrollment. It is important to note that this exchange was happening in many
places even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The pace of this exchange was
accelerated, along with other trends as many of us have observed since 2020.

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