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LIVE UPDATES:ISRAEL-GAZA


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Democracy is a top concern for many voters. We asked them why.
May 17

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images, FILE



 * BIDEN’S PATH TO WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE RUNS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
   
   He's polling just short of Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
   
   May 15, 2024
   
   

 * WHICH STATES COULD GET NEW CONGRESSIONAL MAPS IN 2024?
   
   An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.
   
   May 16, 2024
   
   

 * MARYLAND, WEST VIRGINIA AND NEBRASKA PRIMARIES 2024: ALSOBROOKS BEATS TRONE
   
   538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.
   
   May 14, 2024
   
   

 * ABC News Photo Illustration
   
   WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO TURN RED STATES BLUE OR BLUE STATES RED?
   
   How demographic swings in party choice and turnout could affect the election.
   
   April 04, 2024




LATEST 538 VIDEO

 * 3:07
   
   
   
   WHAT POTENTIAL THREATS ARE EXPERTS AND VOTERS CONCERNED ABOUT?
   
   May 16, 2024
   
 * 3:43
   
   
   
   POLLS SHOW SOME AMERICANS ARE LOSING FAITH IN OUR ELECTIONS
   
   May 16, 2024
   
 * 3:34
   
   
   
   WHY ARE VOTERS WORRIED ABOUT DEMOCRACY?
   
   May 16, 2024
   
 * 3:02
   
   
   
   MARYLAND'S CONTENTIOUS SENATE RACE  
   
   May 14, 2024
   
 * 2:22
   
   
   
   CONSOLIDATING THE DEMOCRATIC BASE
   
   May 14, 2024
   
 * 4:38
   
   
   
   HAS INFLATION BEEN BIDEN'S BIGGEST POLITICAL PROBLEM?
   
   May 14, 2024
   
 * 3:19
   
   
   
   BIDEN STILL TRAILS TRUMP IN VARIOUS POLLS
   
   May 14, 2024
   
 * 4:20
   
   
   
   WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A TRUMP WIN THIS NOVEMBER?
   
   May 09, 2024
   
 * 1:58
   
   
   
   WHAT ARE THE ODDS DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THE POPULAR VOTE?
   
   May 09, 2024
   
 * 3:12
   
   
   
   COULD WE SEE A BIDEN-TRUMP DEBATE?
   
   May 09, 2024
   
 * 3:49
   
   
   
   ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. SAYS POLL SHOWS HE COULD BEAT TRUMP
   
   May 07, 2024
   
 * 3:29
   
   
   
   WILL BIDEN'S HANDLING OF GAZA IMPACT THE 2024 ELECTION?
   
   May 07, 2024
   




LATEST 538 HEADLINES


May 17


DEMOCRACY IS A TOP CONCERN FOR MANY VOTERS. WE ASKED THEM WHY.

Fear of another Trump presidency is pushing some undecided voters toward Biden.
May 17

May 16


WHAT POTENTIAL THREATS ARE EXPERTS AND VOTERS CONCERNED ABOUT?

"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm
breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen
Helmke.
May 16

May 16


POLLS SHOW SOME AMERICANS ARE LOSING FAITH IN OUR ELECTIONS

Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our
voting systems and American Democracy.
May 16

May 16


WHY ARE VOTERS WORRIED ABOUT DEMOCRACY?

In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14% of voters said
the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said
it needs major changes.
May 16

May 15


BIDEN’S PATH TO WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE RUNS THROUGH THE MIDWEST

He's polling just short of Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
May 15

May 15


ARE 'SOCCER MOMS' ACTUALLY SWING VOTERS?

The second episode of our podcast miniseries "Campaign Throwback."
May 15

May 14


MARYLAND'S CONTENTIOUS SENATE RACE  

The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
May 14

May 14


HAS INFLATION BEEN BIDEN'S BIGGEST POLITICAL PROBLEM?

Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former
President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the
economy.
May 14

May 14


CONSOLIDATING THE DEMOCRATIC BASE

538 Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discusses what can be done to
consolidate the Democratic vote behind President Joe Biden.
May 14

May 14


BIDEN STILL TRAILS TRUMP IN VARIOUS POLLS

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of
the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have
changed the polls so little.
May 14

May 13


10 PRIMARIES TO WATCH IN MARYLAND, NEBRASKA AND WEST VIRGINIA

Maryland's Democratic primary for Senate is flush with cash and intrigue.
May 13

May 10


DON’T WRITE OFF LAUREN BOEBERT JUST YET

After a terrible year, she's one win away from a House seat for life.
May 10

May 09


WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A TRUMP WIN THIS NOVEMBER?

The betting markets place the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 election at
47% — but does 538 agree?
May 09

May 09


WHAT ARE THE ODDS DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THE POPULAR VOTE?

The 538 crew plays a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold” and puts their wisdom to the
test.
May 09

May 09


COULD WE SEE A BIDEN-TRUMP DEBATE?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Buy, Sell,
Hold” and look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of certain
events this election season.
May 09

May 08


WHY NOEM BLAMING SHOOTING HER DOG ON THE REALITIES OF RURAL LIFE DOESN’T ADD UP

As a rural dog owner, I know Noem's story is far from normal.
May 08

May 08


IS IT STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID?

In a new series, we look back at political wisdom from past campaigns.
May 08

May 07


ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. SAYS POLL SHOWS HE COULD BEAT TRUMP

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask if a new poll from the
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling.
May 07

May 07


WILL BIDEN'S HANDLING OF GAZA IMPACT THE 2024 ELECTION?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we dig into how campus protests
over the war in Gaza could shape Americans' votes this fall.
May 07

May 07


YOUTH POLLING SHOWS ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR IS NOT A TOP ISSUE FOR 2024 ELECTION

538 Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley breaks down which issues are most
important to America’s youth.
May 07

May 06


5 PRIMARIES TO WATCH IN INDIANA

An indecisive Republican representative could lose renomination.
May 06

May 03


YOUNG PEOPLE DISAPPROVE OF BIDEN’S ISRAEL POLICY. IT MAY NOT MEAN MUCH FOR
NOVEMBER.

Despite campus protests, young people say other issues are more important.
May 03

May 03


538 ALGORITHM GROUPS HOUSE MEMBERS BY HOW THEY ACTUALLY VOTE

538 researcher and editor Cooper Burton joins the podcast to break down a new
algorithm built to cluster House members into “quiet caucuses” based on their
voting trends.
May 03

May 03


HOW VOTERS VIEW THE ECONOMY DEPENDS ON THEIR POLITICS — AND PERSONAL LIVES

538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the podcast to discuss the
results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 03

May 02


FOCUS GROUP SHOWS VOTERS ARE DOWN ON THE ECONOMY

538 senior politics reporter Monica Potts joins the 538 Politics podcast to
discuss the results from a focus group with undecided voters.
May 02

May 02


HOW TRUMP'S HUSH MONEY TRIAL IS AFFECTING HIS STANDING IN THE POLLS

538’s Galen Druke discusses how voters are reacting to the former president’s
criminal trial.
May 02

May 02


HOW TRUMP'S TRIAL IS (NOT) CHANGING THE POLLS

Plus, the latest polling on campus protests and marijuana legalization.
May 02

May 01


THE 8 TYPES OF DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE

We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses.
May 01

April 30


VOTERS DON'T LIKE BIDEN'S ECONOMY — BUT WHY?

In focus groups, we asked undecided voters about their views on the economy.
April 30

April 29


JUDGE HAS FEW OPTIONS TO ADDRESS TRUMP’S ALLEGED GAG ORDER VIOLATIONS

Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the latest
developments in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29

April 29


TRUMP’S JAN. 6 TRIAL MIGHT NOT START ANYTIME SOON

Law professor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss how the
Supreme Court could rule on presidential immunity.
April 29

April 29


WHO COULD TESTIFY AT TRUMP’S TRIAL THIS WEEK?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth
discusses what comes next in Donald Trump’s hush money trial.
April 29

April 25


538'S NEW POLLING AVERAGES SHOW CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live!
April 25

April 25


TRUMP LEADS IN SWING-STATE POLLS AND IS TIED WITH BIDEN NATIONALLY

How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work.
April 25

April 23


ARE MIKE JOHNSON’S DAYS AS HOUSE SPEAKER NUMBERED? | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the
House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan
humanitarian assistance and Taiwan.
April 23

April 18


IN TRUMP TRIAL, JURY SELECTION IS PART POLITICS | 538 POLITICS PODCAST

The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's
Manhattan criminal trial.
April 18

April 16


THE POLITICAL STAKES OF TRUMP'S HUSH MONEY TRIAL

How this trial could impact the 2024 campaign.
April 16

April 11


WHAT'S UP WITH THE KIDS THESE DAYS?

Young voters showed up for Biden in 2020. Will they in 2024?
April 11



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