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The Kroger Co.
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News>Retail & Financial


ANALYSIS: WOULD KROGER-ALBERTSONS MERGER PASS MUSTER WITH REGULATORS?

Blockbuster deals proposed in recent years may shed light on antitrust scrutiny

Russell Redman 1 | Oct 13, 2022

Save

Today’s news that supermarket giants The Kroger Co. and Albertsons Cos. are
reportedly negotiating a possible merger deal shook up the grocery retail arena.
The looming question, though, is would it be doable?

So far, Kroger and Albertsons haven’t responded to requests for comment to
confirm if talks are indeed in progress. Bloomberg first reported Thursday that
discussions between the two companies about potential combination were under
way, with a potential deal of Kroger acquiring Albertsons valued at $25 billion.

Related: Kroger, Albertsons reportedly in merger talks

A deal to merge two huge companies in the same industry sector, supermarket
retail, certainly would draw intense antitrust scrutiny from the Federal Trade
Commission and require sizable divestitures and/or store closings to gain
approval. As Kroger and Albertsons currently stand, the combined entity —
melding the nation’s first- and second-largest supermarket chains — would
generate annual sales of roughly $210 billion and


operate just under 5,000 food, drug and multi-department stores nationwide.



In recent years, the FTC derailed a big merger agreement between two retailers
in the same sector: drugstore operators Walgreens Boots Alliance and Rite Aid.
The two companies opted to forgo the $17 billion deal — a Walgreens acquisition
of Rite Aid, announced in 2015 — after regulators indicated that it would be
rejected on anticompetitive grounds. To gain FTC approval, the retailers ended
up downsizing their transaction to the sale of 1,932 Rite Aid stores to
Walgreens in 2017.




Related: Albertsons, Rite Aid kill merger deal

Not long after that, Albertsons had a major merger scuttled, again involving
Rite Aid. In February 2018, the companies unveiled a $24 billion agreement in
which Albertsons would acquire Rite Aid. The transaction would have joined the
nation’s second-largest supermarket operator with its third-largest drug chain,
creating a company with revenue of about $83 billion and approximately 4,900
stores and 4,350 pharmacies across 38 states and Washington, D.C. In addition, a
deal would have taken Albertsons, owned by an investor group led by
private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, into the public realm by
combining with publicly owned Rite Aid. However, shareholder sentiment turned
against the merger — with some investors questioning the marriage of a
supermarket retailer with a drugstore chain — and swayed Rite Aid and Albertsons
to kill the planned deal in August 2018.



The result of the Walgreens-Rite Aid and Albertsons-Rite Aid deals might provide
a litmus test for how the FTC would gauge the competitive impact of a
Kroger-Albertsons combination. Walgreens-Rite Aid was a proposed merger of two
drug chains, and the FTC wound up giving the green light to a sale of about 40%
of Rite Aid’s store base to Walgreens — but not to an outright merger. The
proposed Albertsons-Rite Aid combination, however, at the time didn’t appear to
generate as much antitrust scrutiny because it would have been a cross-sector
merger — a supermarket retailer with a drugstore retailer, though Albertsons is
one of the nation’s largest retail pharmacy operators.



Albertsons Cos.

Not long ago, Albertsons was the acquirer in a proposed $24 billion merger with
Rite Aid that ended up being scuttled after investors turned against the deal.



Another issue looming over a possible Kroger-Albertsons deal would be how the
FTC defines the grocery retail market. Would regulators weigh the potential
competitive impact of a Kroger-Albertsons merger only on supermarket chains and
independent grocery stores, or would the grocery retail market share of e-tail
giant Amazon and mass merchants like Walmart, Costco Wholesale, Target, Dollar
General, BJ’s Wholesale Club et al be taken into account?



A similar question was raised by industry observers when the proposed
Walgreens-Rite Aid merger went through its paces. Analysts at the time posited
that the FTC narrowed its view of the retail pharmacy market to drugstores and
didn’t give enough weight to the pharmacy market share of non-drugstore
operators like Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Albertsons and other large chains, which
compelled Walgreens and Rite Aid to revamp their agreement to win regulatory
approval.

“According to an unconfirmed Bloomberg report, Kroger is in talks
with Albertsons Cos. about a merger. By our estimates, Kroger is the
second-largest U.S. food retailer, with about 8% share, and Albertsons is the
fourth-largest, with about 5% share. A merger would keep the combined entity
behind Walmart, which we estimate has about 25% share,” CFRA Research analyst
Arun Sundaram said Thursday in a research note. “If a deal is announced, expect
plenty of antitrust scrutiny as the two grocers have plenty of store overlap in
several of the markets they compete in. Also, regulators are likely to question
whether consolidation could stifle competition and drive food prices even
higher.”

According to industry analysts, Kroger and Albertsons have significant overlap
in West Coast markets but little in the Northeast, where Kroger lacks stores.

The omnichannel dimension also may play a role for regulators in evaluating any
Kroger-Albertsons merger proposal. Kroger is currently focused on building out a
network of customer fulfillment centers (CFCs) and supporting spoke sites to
fill online orders under a partnership with United Kingdom-based e-grocery
specialist Ocado Group. The extended reach afforded by these facilities will
enable Kroger to enter new markets where it doesn’t have physical stores —
including Florida, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and the Northeast — as well as better
compete with retail giants Walmart and Amazon.



Kroger hasn’t really focused on brick-and-mortar grocery retail acquisitions in
recent years. The last sizable deals by the company included the $800 million
acquisition of Roundy’s Supermarkets in late 2015 — which added roughly 150
stores under the Mariano’s, Pick ‘n Save, Copps and Metro Market banners — and
the $2.5 billion agreement in 2013 to buy Harris Teeter and its 200-plus stores
in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

“We surmise that cost synergies are likely a major factor driving these talks,
in addition to increased size and scale to compete with the pocketbooks of
competitors like Walmart and Amazon,” Sundaram added. “While the two grocers do
have significant store overlap in several markets, which is something they will
need to address to avoid cannibalizing sales, it does expand Kroger’s geographic
footprint in certain markets (mainly the Northeast).”

*Editor's Note: Article updated with more information on a potential merger deal
and the competitive ramifications.

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