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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS GAME 6 ODDS AND PREDICTIONS

By JAMES TILLMAN III
Published 42 minutes ago


Will the defending champs earn their second straight WCF appearance or can
Minnesota force a Game 7? GMS breaks down which squad has the edge and why.




HIGHLIGHTS

 * Despite the initial domination, the Timberwolves now face potential
   elimination after three straight losses to the Nuggets.
 * Jokic's exceptional performance led to Denver's resurgence, averaging 33
   points in the last three victories.
 * Betting trends favor the Nuggets covering the spread, while the smart pick
   for the over/under is also OVER 203 points.

Erik Ten Hag's final plan
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5
Erik Ten Hag's final plan

The 2023-24 NBA playoff second-round action continues this week as we move to
the later stages of every series. The only game scheduled for tonight features
the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the Western
Conference semifinals.



Here is a look at which squad has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 6 Info

When

Thurs. May 16

Where

Target Center

Time

8:30 PM EST

Location

Minneapolis, MN

TV

ESPN


TIMBERWOLVES VS. NUGGETS – HOW WE GOT HERE & BETTING TRENDS


MINNESOTA IS THE SLIGHT FAVORITE HEADING INTO GAME 6




The Timberwolves thoroughly outplayed the Nuggets on their home floor and jumped
out to a 2-0 lead. But since then, Minnesota has dropped three straight and
found themselves on the brink of elimination -- something that many did not
think was possible a little over a week ago. In their Game 5 loss, Karl-Anthony
Towns scored a team-high 23 points and grabbed six rebounds. Rudy Gobert added
18 points and 11 rebounds.

However, Anthony Edwards -- who was averaging 33.3 points per contest in Games
1-4 -- was held below 20 points for the second time in his last three outings.
He finished with 18 points, nine assists, and four rebounds but shot just
5-for-15 from the field and 1-for-5 from distance. Minnesota held Denver's
offense in check in the first two contests, giving up just 89.5 points per
contest. But in the last three games, the defending champions are averaging
114.7 points per contest with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points per
game.



When the playoffs began, the Timberwolves were dominant, posting wins in each of
their first six playoff contests. But the waters are a bit murky after dropping
three straight for the first time this season. If Minnesota can rediscover its
defensive form, they should have a great chance at forcing a Game 7. If not,
they will be forced to think about what might have been.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have a new lease on life, as the saying goes. The champs
looked like chumps early on but have since found their swagger after taking
three straight over the Timberwolves. In the team's recent victory, three-time
MVP Nikola Jokić led the way with a game-high 40 points, connecting on 15 of his
22 shot attempts. He also had 13 assists and seven rebounds.




Jokic scored 19 points in the first half and 16 points in the game-changing
third quarter. He was such a matchup nightmare that even the opposition had to
take a moment to offer praise for his performance.

“I can’t be mad. He’s good, man. I think I said that after Game 1 when we won,
and Game 2, he’s the MVP. He’s the best player in the NBA. He showed it the last
three games, three games in a row. He was special tonight. I’ve got to give him
his flowers. He was that guy tonight.” - Anthony Edwards

To echo Edwards' point, Jokic has averaged 33 points per game in the last three
games. If the Timberwolves cannot find a way to limit his effectiveness, the
defending champions will be moving on to the conference finals for the second
straight season.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 6 showdown, let’s examine the
betting trends for both sides.





NUGGETS VS. TIMBERWOLVES PICKS


GIVEMESPORT PRESENTS OUR PICKS WITH ANALYSIS




THE SPREAD

Despite losing three straight, the Timberwolves are a 2.5-point favorite coming
into this matchup (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have
fared against the spread this season.

 * The Nuggets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
 * In its last seven May games, Denver is 5-2 against the spread.
 * The Timberwolves are 6-3 ATS in their last nine outings.
 * Minnesota is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 matchups against Western Conference
   opponents.
 * In their last six contests against Northwest Division teams, the Timberwolves
   are 2-4 against the spread.
 * Prediction: Denver Nuggets (+2.5)


OVER/UNDER

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 206 points, but the
line has recently moved to 203 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with
“OVER” is the smart choice.


 * The total has gone OVER five times in the Nuggets' last six road contests.
 * The OVER total has prevailed seven times in Denver's last nine games against
   Western Conference teams.
 * The total has gone OVER 10 times in the Timberwolves' last 14 outings.
 * In Minnesota's last six matchups against Denver, the OVER total is 4-2.
 * The OVER total prevailed seven times in the Timberwolves' last nine home
   games against Denver.
 * Prediction: OVER 203 points


PLAYER PROP BETS

Following his third consecutive 30-plus points outing, Jokic is the key player
to watch for the road team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 29.5
points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total
for this matchup.


 * During the regular season and playoffs, he is averaging 26.7 points per game
   in 89 appearances.
 * Jokic has averaged 31.1 points per contest in nine games against the
   Timberwolves this season (including the playoffs).
 * During the postseason, he is averaging 28.8 points per outing.
 * Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 59 times this season. In
   those contests, he is averaging 27.9 points per outing.
 * In 19 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Denver's big man
   averages 28.6 points per game.
 * Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 28.8 points and 13.8 rebounds
   per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during
   that stretch.
 * Prediction: Nikola Jokić OVER 29.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Edwards continues to be the key player to
watch for the home team. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 29.5
points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.



Do his numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup?
Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

 * Edwards is averaging 26.4 points per contest during the regular season and
   playoffs.
 * In nine games against the Nuggets this season, Edwards has averaged 28.3
   points per contest.
 * During the postseason, he is averaging 30.6 points per outing.
 * Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 59 times this season
   (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.2 points per
   outing.
 * In 20 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Minnesota’s shooting
   guard averages 26.9 points per game.
 * Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 28.8 points and 6.2 rebounds
   per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during
   that stretch.
 * Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 29.5 points




MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS FINAL PICKS

 * The Spread: Denver Nuggets (+2.5) OddShark
 * Over/Under: OVER 203 points (Pre-Game.com)
 * Player Prop Bet #1: Nikola Jokić OVER 29.5 points
 * Player Prop Bet #2: Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 points

Related

LUKA DONCIC EXPLAINS DIFFERENT ‘MENTAL FOCUS’ IN GAME 5 WIN

The Mavericks superstar had a different demeanor towards the referees during his
epic triple-double performance in Game 5.




GMS WEEKLY: YOUR TICKET TO A WHOLE NEW BALL GAME.








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Related Topics
 * Basketball
 * NBA Playoffs
 * NBA
 * Minnesota Timberwolves
 * denver nuggets

About The Author
JAMES TILLMAN III • Sports Journalist


James Tillman III is an accounting professional by trade, but sports writing is
his passion. In addition to being an NBA contributor with GMS, James has over 15
years of experience publishing online sports content, including stints with
FanSided, Latest Basketball News, Godzilla Wins, and Total Apex Sports, to name
a few. While most of his early work included providing the biggest
takeaways/observations from team and player news, James has spent the last five
years in the betting landscape.

James researches the most notable trends for both teams and includes them in his
odds/prediction analysis articles to support his picks. Born and raised in the
Windy City, James follows all of Chicago’s sports teams, and he is excited about
how the new-look Chicago Sky will fare in the upcoming 2024 campaign.
 


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