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Report: Washington Worries China Is Winning Over Thailand
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Report
WASHINGTON WORRIES CHINA IS WINNING OVER THAILAND
ONE OF THE UNITED STATES’ OLDEST SECURITY PARTNERS IN ASIA IS INCREASINGLY
MARCHING TO BEIJING’S MUSIC.
By Jack Detsch
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Jack Detsch Jack Detsch
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha gestures to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd
Austin.
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha (left) gestures to U.S. Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin as they inspect the honor guard at the Government House of Thailand
in Bangkok on June 13. Manan VATSYAYANA/AFP via Getty Images
June 17, 2022, 11:11 AM
The United States has become increasingly worried about Thailand falling under
China’s influence, former U.S. military and civilian officials said, with
Beijing applying significant pressure on the U.S. ally in Southeast Asia to
purchase Chinese-made submarines.
The United States has become increasingly worried about Thailand falling under
China’s influence, former U.S. military and civilian officials said, with
Beijing applying significant pressure on the U.S. ally in Southeast Asia to
purchase Chinese-made submarines.
Although the roughly $400 million deal—first inked in 2017 to Washington’s
chagrin—now appears to be threatened, with a German-based company refusing to
provide diesel engines for the submersible, it shows China’s growing influence
with the United States’ nearly two century-year-old treaty ally, part and parcel
of Beijing’s increasing reach in Southeast Asia.
Bangkok has grown tired of Washington’s chiding over democratic backsliding and
human rights abuses, highlighted by coup attempts in 2006 and 2014, the second
of which temporarily led the United States to suspend military aid and put
current Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha in power. Some in Washington (and
inside the Thai parliament) fear that Thailand could veer further toward the
path of the Philippines, another long-time U.S. ally that has cozied up to
Beijing in recent years.
“The recipe is there; all of the ingredients are there,” said Lyle Morris, a
senior policy analyst at the Rand Corporation and a former U.S. Defense
Department official. “They’ve already invested in a lot of the defense
industrial base with the subs and more arms being sold from China to Thailand.
That’s how it starts: It’s building the relationships of the defense industrial
base and having systems that are more amenable to China than to the U.S.”
“I don’t think Thailand is lost yet, but they definitely need some love,” Morris
added.
The Biden administration tried to shore up bilateral relations by dispatching
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to the country this week, a visit sandwiched
in between the Pentagon chief’s trip to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore and
back-to-back meetings at NATO headquarters to provide more aid to Ukraine and
prepare for NATO’s Madrid summit.
Senior U.S. defense officials insisted that their visit to the region is not to
tell Southeast Asian nations to choose between the United States and China but
to listen to their concerns as military tensions intensify in the region. Top of
mind for Austin is helping Southeast Asia, which has historically relied on
Russian-sourced military equipment, to get more U.S. arms, including finalizing
the sale of F-15 jets to Indonesia.
Like the battle over arms sales, the United States and China have also competed
to lay claim to regional outposts. Vietnam once had the largest U.S. naval base
outside the continental United States, and the Philippines for long boasted
major U.S. naval and air installations. But in recent years, China has moved
into the neighborhood, including reportedly inking a deal to get exclusive
access to a large chunk of a naval base in Cambodia on the Gulf of Thailand this
month.
But the bigger issue isn’t bases or weapons sales but influence. China has
coupled deep-pocketed development financing with a no-strings approach to
economic statecraft.
“The real issue is influence. It’s not about the weapons systems themselves for
the Chinese,” said Brent Sadler, a military expert at the Heritage Foundation.
“And so, if they’ve gotten the policies and decisions out of the Thais, they
could really care less” about the $400 million submarine deal.
As one of the United States’ half-dozen treaty allies dating back to the early
years of the Cold War, Thailand still buys hundreds of millions of dollars of
U.S. weapons and has trained and exercised along U.S. forces for years. But
Chinese influence expanded after U.S. officials were critical of the 2014 coup
that catapulted Prayuth into power, and U.S. foreign policy in the embattled
country stagnated under the Trump administration, Thai lawmakers said.
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“America pretty much was absent in Thailand in all grounds,” said Pita
Limjaroenrat, a Thai businessman who leads the Move Forward Party. “Military
exercises were just out of the question. That’s why strategic reliance turned
all the way to China—90 percent. Not Europe, not America, only China.”
Prayuth, the mercurial Thai leader, faces possible political headwinds, with
opposition leaders in Bangkok likely preparing a no-confidence vote after
independents scored victories in a recent gubernatorial election. But Chinese
influence could be harder to uproot. Experts see the likely parliamentary vote
as a potential bellwether, with Prayuth cracking down heavily on recent
student-led street demonstrations that bubbled up after the coronavirus
pandemic. Hundreds of people were arrested, and some were put under home
detention even after they left police custody.
“If the Prayuth government remains in power, greater authoritarianism and a
further lean towards China are very likely,” said Tyrell Haberkorn, a professor
of Southeast Asian studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Already,
under the current semi-democratic, semi-authoritarian regime, there have been
sustained attacks on human rights and freedoms.” On the other hand, Haberkorn
said, a new government led by the Pheu Thai Party could give Thailand a greater
chance of a pro-U.S. tilt.
Ever since the Thai coup of 2006, the top U.S.-Thai joint military exercise in
the country, Cobra Gold, has shrunk and now includes under 5,000 participants,
according to Gregory Raymond, an Australian scholar. “It’s hard not to see the
shrinkage as anything but a reflection of tensions in the U.S.-Thai alliance
since the coups of 2006 and 2014, plus Thailand accommodating China,” Raymond
tweeted this month. The Pentagon’s U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, he said, “is
simply not contributing the same level of resources.”
Haberkorn said Thailand has “increasingly leaned towards China” on routine
cooperation, adopting compatible military and civilian technology. The two have
also worked together to squash human rights since the 2014 coup, with Thailand
cooperating on the rendition to China of Hong Kong dissident Gui Minhai in 2015.
But China could just as easily squander its apparent advantage in Thailand with
a transactional approach to foreign affairs. In Africa and Latin America, big
Chinese inroads were gradually undone by Beijing’s shortsighted diplomacy.
“They’ll promise the sky, deliver suitcases, buy you a villa on the beach
somewhere in the south of France or Australia in order for that politician in
that targeted country to make a decision at a specific time and on a specific
issue that they want,” Sadler said.
“And as soon as they get the issue, they move on,” Sadler added. “It’s very
transactional. The Chinese have something they want, and they’ll stop giving
once they get what they want.”
Jack Detsch is a Pentagon and national security reporter at Foreign Policy.
Twitter: @JackDetsch
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SHOULD GOVERNMENTS REGULATE AI?
June 1, 2023 | 11:00am ET
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Is U.S. President Joe Biden’s White House prepared to deal with the remarkable
growth of artificial intelligence? What are the current and potential risks to
Americans? If governments shou...Show moreld create rules around the regulation
of AI, what considerations should guide the creation of those rules? Alondra
Nelson is the architect of the White House’s “Blueprint for an AI Bill of
Rights.” Since it was published in October, AI has only become more central to
our lives—and Nelson has stepped down from her role as the government’s head of
science and technology. How should policymakers think through the challenges
presented by AI? Join Nelson for a wide-ranging discussion with FP’s Ravi
Agrawal.
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