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SPEAKER JOHNSON’S JOB IS ON THE LINE AS THE HOUSE RETURNS


DEEP DIVISIONS ON ISSUES LIKE UKRAINE AND BORDER SECURITY MAY FORCE THE SPEAKER
TO ONCE AGAIN TURN TO DEMOCRATS TO PASS HIS PRIORITIES

By Marianna Sotomayor
April 8, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

House Speaker Mike Johnson is facing a possible revolt against his speakership
as he tries to negotiate a foreign aid package including money for Ukraine.
(Craig Hudson for The Washington Post)

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House Republicans are dreading their return to Washington on Tuesday,
anticipating their deep divisions will jeopardize high-stakes legislation in a
way that may end in the ouster of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and further throw
the chamber into dysfunction.


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Whether Johnson remains speaker hinges on if the Republican decides to satisfy
demands from his furthest right flank — or turns to Democrats, who could
ultimately save his speakership, in a bid to pass his priorities.



“He’s gotten himself down to a Catch-22,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), who
chairs the largest ideological faction of conservatives, the Republican Study
Committee.

The next two weeks are the most critical of Johnson’s nearly six-month tenure
atop a very wobbly House with a majority that continues to narrow. His chief
priority is passing a bill funding Ukraine that also sends aid to Israel and
Indo-Pacific allies. Unlike a national security package that passed the Senate,
House Republicans across the ideological spectrum insist that any foreign aid
deal must also include measures that strengthen U.S. borders.

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But the shape of that package will be fiercely debated and a route to passage is
unpredictable and murky. With just a two-vote majority, Republicans have been
unable to achieve consensus on such divisive issues, angering a far-right
desperate for ideological purity. Choosing a bipartisan route is also
complicated: getting lawmakers to agree on anything related to Ukraine and
Israel, especially with outrage mounting about civilian casualties in Gaza, is
an almost impossible task, given the partisanship and anger in today’s House.

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Meanwhile, the House is expected to take up a measure by Friday to reauthorize
the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act before an April 19 deadline. But that
measure has already torn Republicans apart, resulting in leadership pulling a
December vote as far-right members and national security hawks sparred over
requiring a warrant to review communications sent by Americans swept up in
surveillance of foreign actors by U.S. spy agencies. GOP leadership plans to
bring the warrant question to the floor this week, where its failure could
further irritate the extreme flanks of each party.

Another speakership fight seven months before the elections would only further
expose the chronic disarray in the House Republican Conference and the
difficulty it has had in governing. Many House Republicans acknowledge their
inability to agree on passing anything — whether narrow messaging bills that
will not become law or more substantive legislation — may harm their quest to
stay in and expand their majority.

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If Johnson turns to Democrats, that likely means he would again bypass the Rules
Committee — dominated by Republicans, including three from the far-right eager
to block legislation — and turn to the so-called suspension calendar in which he
would need two-thirds of the House for legislation to be adopted.

Dangling above all this is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) threat to oust
Johnson from the speakership if he puts any bill sending money to Ukraine on the
House floor, which is all but inevitable as the speaker has made clear the
United States will aid the foreign ally in its fight against Russia.

Greene said in an interview she does not want to throw “our entire conference
into pain and chaos again” by expediting a move to vacate the speakership and
forcing the House to vote on whether to oust Johnson within two legislative
days.

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Nonetheless, she said: “Mike Johnson cannot be Speaker of the House because …
not only has he betrayed our conference, he’s betrayed the values, the morals,
the ethics, the principles of Republican voters all across the country,” adding,
“We are a ship adrift at sea with no captain because our captain has left us. He
has abandoned us and become the speaker for the Democrats.”

In a statement, Johnson said he “respects Marjorie” and acknowledged they “do
have honest differences on strategy sometimes but share the same conservative
beliefs.” The two were supposed to speak Friday, but neither team confirmed
whether they ultimately connected.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.) — a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus —
declined to endorse or rule out supporting Greene’s threat, saying he’s focused
on working with Johnson to figure out a path to strengthen the U.S.-Mexico
border. But he also warned that it “would be a complete failure to put Ukraine
on the floor without dealing with the border.”

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Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), who chairs the conservative Main Street Caucus,
called the motion to vacate “a terrible threat” looming over a speaker “who is
honestly trying to figure out a way forward.”

“There is a 100 percent chance that after the motion to vacate, we will be left
with a speaker that is less conservative than Mike Johnson, and for people like
me who want to secure conservative victories, that would be a tragedy,” he said.
“It would be disruptive to our nation and it would set back the cause for those
of us who are interested in reducing the size, scope and intrusion of
government.”

Former House speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted in a similar move in
October — the first time a sitting House speaker was deposed — after he ignored
the far-right’s demands to shut down the government and relied on Democrats to
pass a short-term funding measure. Johnson was only elected after a weeks-long
stalemate in which Republicans could not coalesce around three potential
speakers, leaving the then-little-known Johnson to grab the gavel.

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This time, however, the House majority is narrower — House Republicans have a
two-seat edge, 218 to 213 Democrats. By the end of the House session in April,
the majority will fall to a single seat once Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.)
retires. That means almost anything could happen if Greene — or just one other
Republican, under party rules — wants it to. It takes just one member to force a
motion to vacate vote over deposing the House speaker, which if introduced under
special rules, can happen 48 hours after being introduced.

Greene has filed the resolution as a “warning,” but has yet to expedite its
consideration. Unlike the eight Republicans who supported kicking out McCarthy,
Greene says she cares about the consequence of challenging the speaker and has
thought methodically about ensuring she doesn’t “do anything to risk any kind of
way for Hakeem Jeffries to become Speaker of the House.” Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is
the House Democratic leader.

But the congresswoman also made clear she intended to follow through on her
threat.

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“If he passes that $60 billion to Ukraine, and then follows up with FISA
reauthorization, you’re going to see a lot more Republicans than just me coming
out saying his speakership is over with,” she said.

In expressing her displeasure with Johnson, Greene said he has gone from
opposing Ukraine aid as a rank-and-file member to championing it as speaker,
with conditions. “He has made a massive departure of who he is, who we knew him
to be,” she argued.

But Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), who chairs the moderate Republican Governance
Group, defended Johnson’s actions given that as speaker, he ultimately
represents the consensus of the country.

“You can’t let certain people who just don’t like this or that decision dictate
the program,” he said. “It certainly doesn’t give anybody a reason to continue
House Republicans in the majority. It just continues to demonstrate that we
can’t govern.”

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No House Republican has publicly backed Greene’s effort, even among those who
are ardently opposed to sending more aid to Ukraine. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.),
who led the charge to oust McCarthy, ruled out supporting Greene’s effort
because he fears it could lead to Jeffries becoming speaker.

Democrats might bail out Johnson if Greene ultimately does invoke a motion to
challenge his speakership. But many lawmakers have said publicly they would vote
to table Greene’s resolution on the condition Johnson puts up for a vote any
measure including Ukraine aid that can reasonably make it to the president’s
desk. If all Democrats choose not to help Johnson, which happened in McCarthy’s
case, Republicans would need only three members to remove his gavel. Once
Gallagher resigns, they would only need two.

Many House Republicans, privately and publicly, are apprehensive about the weeks
to come.

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One rank-and-file Republican, who like others spoke on the condition of
anonymity to discuss private deliberations, pointed to the fact that most
Republicans voted against Johnson’s plan to prevent a partial government
shutdown last month as a stark warning sign.

“I think that was the biggest validation of lack of support for the speaker that
we’ve seen today,” the Republican said. “It is the ‘silent majority’ now in the
Republican conference that continues to move away from speaker.”

Johnson has yet to telegraph his plans to his leadership team, GOP conference or
Jeffries, according to multiple people familiar with the debate. But with a
conference that has rarely agreed on legislation that must also pass the Senate,
Democrats and several moderate Republicans view the conversations as a waste of
time while Ukraine runs out of ammunition.

The White House has been in touch with Johnson’s office but has not expressed
openness to several changes to the bill the speaker has floated, according to a
White House official.

“We need the Senate bill to pass,” the official said, echoing an argument House
Democratic leadership has repeatedly made. “Any amendments whatsoever to it risk
further delay. We do not support any amendments to the Senate-passed bill.”

The Senate passed a bipartisan $95 billion supplemental national security
package in February, which allots $60 billion in new funds for Ukraine, $14
billion for Israel, $9 billion in humanitarian assistance to Gaza, and $5
billion to aid Indo-Pacific allies against Chinese threats. But House
Republicans have deemed it a non-starter, putting the onus on Johnson to piece
together the funding puzzle.

Johnson has hinted in recent interviews at several measures he thinks could
offset the costs of a foreign aid package. Republicans could adopt a measure
that would transfer seized Russian assets for Ukraine’s use, for instance, and
another that would make mandatory repayment from Ukraine for any funds or
military equipment loaned by the United States moving forward, an idea former
president Donald Trump supports. (A previous Ukraine aid bill already gave Biden
authority to expedite loan agreements with Ukraine and other allies.)

Johnson also pitched linking aid to reversing Biden’s pause on liquefied natural
gas exports, which the GOP could tout as a win against the administration’s
climate agenda. But if Johnson relies on Democrats to pass the measure with
two-thirds support from the House, such a provision would have to be stripped to
earn their support.

But none of that covers the border, which Republicans are bent on tackling in
some way, especially in an election year.

In a statement, Johnson reiterated his commitment to “meaningful policy”
addressing the southern border as part of the president’s supplemental funding
request and Republicans hope the speaker forcefully uses his leverage to bring
Democrats to the negotiating table.

While House Republicans were able to hammer out differences to overwhelmingly
pass a border security proposal last year, the Senate deemed it too
conservative. Knowing border security was the key to unlock funding for Ukraine
in the House, a small group of bipartisan Senate negotiators agreed on a
proposal — but it was aggressively shot down by Republicans.

It’s unclear what House Republicans could propose that would unify them. It’s
also unclear if Johnson would work with Democrats on an issue that deeply
divides them. Democrats are already a problem for the speaker because they favor
aid to Israel coupled with humanitarian relief funds for those in Gaza.

House Democrats and a bipartisan group of lawmakers have already proposed two
options that could free the speaker from having to cobble together new
legislation. House Democrats have put the Senate-approved bill — that does not
include border security — in a discharge petition, a measure that would
“discharge” the bill from committee once 218 lawmakers sign onto it and trigger
a floor vote without Johnson’s approval. So far, 190 Democrats and one
Republican have signed the petition.

Another discharge petition, supported by 16 lawmakers, also includes funding for
one year for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific and border security measures.
Final text of the legislation, which negotiators are still piecing together,
will include humanitarian aid as well as language for confiscated Russian assets
and leasing provisions for Ukraine, which the speaker is considering adopting in
his own proposal, according to two people familiar.

But numerous Republicans are growing more comfortable in possibly supporting the
petition, according to three GOP lawmakers, if Johnson’s package doesn’t attract
the necessary 290 votes from Republicans and Democrats to pass.

It’s unclear how Greene would view the success of a discharge petition, although
she has previously said she would not blame Johnson for it since he has no
control over its consideration.

Dusty Johnson, the South Dakota Republican, acknowledged there is nothing he or
his colleagues can do to prevent Greene from triggering a vote to oust the
speaker — or to control the aftermath. All he can do is pray.

“The Serenity Prayer is insightful here,” he said. “There is nothing that
realistically can be done to guarantee that that weapon is disarmed. Frankly,
how freeing, because now every single one of us whose taken the oath of office
to serve in the House understands that we just have to do our job in the best
possible way, and let the chips fall where they will.”

Theodoric Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell contributed to this report.

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