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https://www.wsj.com/articles/beware-a-phony-peace-in-ukraine-georgia-russia-putin-zelensky-settlement-talks-11648408474


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BEWARE A PHONY PEACE IN UKRAINE


GEORGIA, MOLDOVA AND AZERBAIJAN, WHICH ENDURED RUSSIAN COERCION FOR YEARS, ARE
CAUTIONARY TALES.

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By Thomas D. Grant
March 27, 2022 4:32 pm ET

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82


RUSSIAN ARMORED VEHICLES HEAD TO TSKHINVALI, SOUTH OSSETIA, AUGUST 2008.

Photo: Musa Sadulayev/Associated Press
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Russia’s war against Ukraine is failing. But serious dangers remain. Among them
are “peace” terms that, like those Russia imposed on past victims of its
aggression, would set up Ukraine—and others—for bloodshed in the years to come.
Vladimir Putin, who didn’t bargain on a tough fight, is likely to propose terms
that look like concessions but are calculated to hobble Ukraine and threaten
security far beyond its borders. Ukrainians won’t accept such an endgame, and
other countries should not try to get them to do so.

Russia’s recent wars illustrate what Mr. Putin likely has in mind for Ukraine.
In Georgia, which he invaded in 2008; in Moldova, where Russian troops never
left; and in Azerbaijan, where Russia supported Armenian separatists in the
early 1990s, fighting subsided but ambiguity followed. Russia’s proxies—a mix of
puppets and Kremlin thugs—proceeded to dig in behind semiofficial armistice
lines. With Russia’s support, fiefs under these proxies in some cases have
lasted to the present day.

Contributing to their persistence are the cease-fire terms. Neither continuing
war nor cementing peace, the terms deliberately debilitated the countries Russia
had attacked by entrenching its proxies on each country’s territory and
stipulating “peace processes” that Moscow used not to pursue peace, but to
prevent the countries from stabilizing or escaping Russia’s shadow.

Hints from the Kremlin suggest that this is how Mr. Putin hopes to gain lasting
ground from his botched invasion. Mr. Putin insists that Ukraine accept the
permanent loss of the three pieces of the country that Russia already has
taken—the Crimean Peninsula and the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.



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That might sound like a clean-cut outcome, but it wouldn’t be. If Russia wins
the terms it demands, then other parts of Ukraine will fall under the shadow of
contrived secessions, sham independence movements and whatever other forms of
subversion Mr. Putin might improvise. Brutal client outposts, fake referendums
and forced population exchanges likely won’t be limited to two or three parts of
Ukraine. Even if Mr. Putin makes a show of restraint at first, he would have
convenient launchpads from which to do more harm. Under the endgame he likely is
pursuing, Ukraine can expect no better a fate than Georgia, Moldova or
Azerbaijan, which endured coercion by Russia for decades.

The West tolerated Russia’s strategy of creating and sustaining “frozen
conflicts” against its smaller neighbors. This signaled to Mr. Putin in 2014
that it was safe to seize Crimea and conjure the rebel groups through which
Russia has ruled Donetsk and Luhansk and menaced Ukraine. Tolerating such an
outcome in Ukraine would be a mistake.

The risks for the security of Europe are clear. Ukraine is larger than earlier
victims of Russia’s aggression and post-armistice intrigues. It borders four
countries—Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania—in the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization and sets an example for the three NATO countries the U.S.S.R. once
directly ruled—Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Permanent ambiguity and
destabilization in Ukraine aren’t acceptable.

The horrors that Russia is inflicting on civilians in Ukraine add urgency to the
search for peace. Ukraine might reasonably consider concessions on the timing or
terms of joining NATO or the European Union. But concessions that give Russia
permanent leverage over Ukraine will supply no peace. They will only set the
stage for future war, and on the terms Mr. Putin prefers.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, affirming that Ukraine won’t accept ultimatums,
sees the danger of accepting Mr. Putin’s terms. If the world wants peace and a
secure Europe, then it shouldn’t impose a settlement on Ukraine that ignores
lessons from places where Russia got the endgames it demanded.

Mr. Grant served as senior adviser for strategic planning in the State
Department’s Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, 2019-21. He
is author of “Aggression Against Ukraine: Territory, Responsibility, and
International Law.”

WSJ Opinion: Ukraine, Russia and the Fear of World War III
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Opinion: Ukraine, Russia and the Fear of World War III

Wonder Land: Virtually the whole world has committed to repelling Vladimir
Putin's invasion in a kind of spontaneous, crowd-funded alternative to the
Armageddon tripwire. Images: AP/AFP/Getty Images Composite: Mark Kelly

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Appeared in the March 28, 2022, print edition as 'Beware a Phony Peace In
Ukraine.'




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