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Markets


INVESTORS ARE SO BEARISH ON STOCKS THAT THE MARKET LOOKS BULLISH

 * VIX futures spread is at a turning point for risk assets
 * Put-call ratio near the highest since January amid Fed hedging


Returns Will Be a Lot Lower, Goldman's Katie Koch Warns
By

Jan-Patrick Barnert and

Justin Zacks

+Follow
May 3, 2022, 6:21 PM GMT


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Investors have become so negative about the stock market that Wall Street is
starting think a rally may be on the way.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic said this week that
“investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness,” meaning a rebound could be on
the cards. Meanwhile, a Societe Generale SA sentiment indicator recently dropped
to levels last seen during the peak of Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.

“This will likely culminate in a bounce in equities,” Societe Generale
strategists Manish Kabra and Arthur Van Slooten wrote last week.




Read more: JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Rebound as Bearish ‘Fears Overblown’




Other market technicals could be pointing to a short-term bounce as well.



The U.S. put-call ratio’s absolute level is near the highest since January after
investors built up hedges into the falling market amid fears of a recession and
aggressive tightening. Barring another big shock, this should provide some
support to stocks as investors begin to unwind those hedges after the Federal
Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday.


 
 

In addition, the Cboe Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, has been at or
above 30 for the past week -- it touched a high of 32.82 on Tuesday. Traders
typically consider a reading of over 30 to be a sign of significant fear in the
market. 

More importantly, the spread between two-month and eight-month VIX futures
contracts is trading near peak levels seen earlier this year, showing deep
uncertainty about the near-term. This indicator of short-term stress has
historically been a turning point for risk assets, with volatility topping out
in the days leading up to the Fed’s prior three meetings this year.


 
 




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