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WE VALUE YOUR PRIVACY We and our partners store and/or access information on a device, such as cookies and process personal data, such as unique identifiers and standard information sent by a device for personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development. With your permission we and our partners may use precise geolocation data and identification through device scanning. You may click to consent to our and our 1044 partners’ processing as described above. Alternatively you may click to refuse to consent or access more detailed information and change your preferences before consenting. Please note that some processing of your personal data may not require your consent, but you have a right to object to such processing. Your preferences will apply to this website only. You can change your preferences or withdraw your consent at any time by returning to this site and clicking the "Privacy" button at the bottom of the webpage. MORE OPTIONSI Do Not AcceptI Accept Skip to content SITE NAVIGATION * The Atlantic * PopularLatestNewsletters SECTIONS * Politics * Ideas * Fiction * Technology * Science * Photo * Business * Culture * Planet * Global * Books * Audio * Health * Education * Projects * Features * Family * Events * Washington Week * Progress * Newsletters * Explore The Atlantic Archive * Play The Atlantic crossword * Listen to Podcasts and Articles THE PRINT EDITION Latest IssuePast Issues -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Give a Gift * Search The Atlantic Quick Links * Dear Therapist * Crossword Puzzle * Magazine Archive * Your Subscription * Popular * Latest * Newsletters * Sign In * Subscribe Ideas THE EIGHT DYNAMICS THAT WILL SHAPE THE ELECTION And that will decide the outcome in November By David A. Graham Illustration by The Atlantic. Sources: Brandon Bell / Getty; Win McNamee / Getty; Sara Stathas / The Washington Post. May 15, 2024 Share Save Sign up for The Decision, a newsletter featuring our 2024 election coverage. Where, exactly, are we in the election cycle right now? In most election years, figuring this out is fairly easy, but in 2024, it’s not so simple. When Donald Trump locked up the Republican nomination in March, reporters declared that the general election had begun. But what’s going on is not yet a midsummer campaign, nor does it feel like one. President Joe Biden has started stumping more aggressively and giving more interviews, but he’s also been consumed by domestic and foreign crises. Trump’s time is consumed by a different kind of domestic crisis: He spends most days in a Manhattan courtroom defending against claims that he broke the law in covering up a sexual liaison. When he’s not in court, however, his rallies have been infrequent. Political polling offers some sense of where things stand. Experts warn against reading too much into polls at this stage, and the industry is deeply flawed, but polls are nevertheless the best tool available for assessing voters’ attitudes. They have for months now suggested a small but consistent lead for Trump, with Biden closing the gap somewhat. A survey Monday from The New York Times and Siena College, typically one of the accurate polls, finds Trump leading Biden in five key swing states. To read this story, Sign in or start a free trial. Close Never miss a story. Start your free trial. Uncompromising quality. Enduring impact. Your support ensures a bright future for independent journalism. Get Started Already have an account? Sign in David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.