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Ideas


THE EIGHT DYNAMICS THAT WILL SHAPE THE ELECTION

And that will decide the outcome in November

By David A. Graham

Illustration by The Atlantic. Sources: Brandon Bell / Getty; Win McNamee /
Getty; Sara Stathas / The Washington Post.
May 15, 2024
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Sign up for The Decision, a newsletter featuring our 2024 election coverage.

Where, exactly, are we in the election cycle right now?

In most election years, figuring this out is fairly easy, but in 2024, it’s not
so simple. When Donald Trump locked up the Republican nomination in March,
reporters declared that the general election had begun. But what’s going on is
not yet a midsummer campaign, nor does it feel like one. President Joe Biden has
started stumping more aggressively and giving more interviews, but he’s also
been consumed by domestic and foreign crises. Trump’s time is consumed by a
different kind of domestic crisis: He spends most days in a Manhattan courtroom
defending against claims that he broke the law in covering up a sexual liaison.
When he’s not in court, however, his rallies have been infrequent.



Political polling offers some sense of where things stand. Experts warn against
reading too much into polls at this stage, and the industry is deeply flawed,
but polls are nevertheless the best tool available for assessing voters’
attitudes. They have for months now suggested a small but consistent lead for
Trump, with Biden closing the gap somewhat. A survey Monday from The New York
Times and Siena College, typically one of the accurate polls, finds Trump
leading Biden in five key swing states.

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David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.