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New York

SPOILER ALERT: NYC MAYOR COULD COMPLICATE DEM PLANS TO RETAKE THE HOUSE

Critics of Mayor Eric Adams say his rhetoric on crime and immigration hurts
fellow Democrats while boosting Republicans.

An outside advisor to New York Mayor Eric Adams said those who criticized the
mayor for highlighting crime in 2022 tend to gloss over the idea that he also
offered solutions — among them a surge of police in subways to combat transit
crime. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

By Joe Anuta

06/08/2023 04:30 AM EDT

Updated: 06/08/2023 04:18 PM EDT

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NEW YORK — Democrats are already pouring millions of dollars into reclaiming the
New York City suburbs after a midterm drubbing last year that cost them control
of the House. But there’s one thing they can’t plan for: New York City Mayor
Eric Adams, a wild card from their own party who is once again going against the
political grain.

Many fellow party members, especially those on the far-left, believe Adams
amplified concerns over crime last year by highlighting changes to New York
state bail laws, thereby boosting the candidacies of four Republicans who
flipped seats north of the city and on Long Island.

The mayor has since softened some of his rhetoric on public safety, but at the
same time he has been stirring up resentment in these same districts with a
program to bus asylum-seekers from Latin America to hotels around the state —
bringing a divisive national issue to the doorstep of Empire State swing voters
while criticizing the White House over its immigration policy.

Unlike in other parts of the country where a big city mayor might have little
sway over suburban House races, Adams commands an influential bully pulpit. He
is heavily covered by a robust media market that extends well into the contested
suburbs, often appears on national television to discuss divisive topics and is
not shy when he believes the Democratic Party should be following his lead on
issues like crime and immigration.

Because three of the four districts in question have been rated tossups by Cook
Political Report — meaning a slight nudge could tip them one way or the other —
some Democrats are again concerned Adams and the broader Democratic Party are
pushing in opposite directions.

“The mayor is making the same dangerous mistake on immigration as he made on
public safety,” said Theo Oshiro, co-executive director for Make the Road New
York and its affiliated political arm, a left-leaning nonprofit that is a member
of the Working Families Party. “He is essentially fueling this right-wing
narrative of asylum-seekers as a disaster for the city.”

Others, however, are hoping that Adams could be an asset this time around if he
and the party can get more in sync on messaging.

“I think there is a way to stress the importance of crime while also doing it
proactively, and if [Adams] can make that little turn it could be a very useful
tool for Democrats,” said a House campaign aide who was granted anonymity to
discuss strategy with POLITICO. “The things he says get covered from NY-1 up to
NY-19. And what he says is important — especially for someone who holds an
almost daily type of news briefing.”

But there is no guarantee that will happen.

Eric Adams’ mixed bag of crime stats

By Anna Gronewold and Joe Anuta and Zachary Schermele

THE PUBLIC SAFETY ELECTION

Crime has been a perennial election issue. But 2022 was different.

After a historic drop during the pandemic, seven major crimes tracked by the
NYPD began to increase, while New Yorkers’ concerns about the issue rose far
more dramatically, outpacing historic norms.

Conservative candidates and editorial pages placed the blame on the New York
Legislature’s 2019 decision to end cashless bail for most low-level crimes. And
as the midterms drew closer, Adams, a Democrat and retired NYPD captain, was
among the loudest voices calling for the state to revisit these laws to curb
recidivism. His position alienated him from many New York Democrats and endeared
him to the GOP. And when lawmakers ultimately declined to crack open the laws
for revision before the midterms, bail morphed into the marquee attack line used
by the right to devastating effect.

In post mortems delivered to reporters, Adams mused that if Democrats had
followed his lead and spoken more frankly about public safety, the results might
have been different. And going forward, a key adviser to the mayor said Adams
has no plans to remove crime from the core of his political brand.

“We are going to stay on that message until the city is as safe as it can
possibly be,” said Frank Carone, the mayor’s former chief of staff and expected
chair of his reelection effort. “That doesn’t mean that he is going to curtail
that message because of pressure from the echo chamber of politics — he will
continue to listen to the constituents.”

A set of changing circumstances, however, could end up more closely aligning the
outspoken mayor with his Democratic colleagues anyway.

By 2024, Adams will have been in office for more than two years and will be on
the cusp of running for reelection himself. And because he has staked his
political brand on public safety, he will have more incentive to talk up gains
rather than highlight the problem of crime: So far this year, murders, rapes,
robberies and burglaries are all down compared to the same period the year
before.

In addition, a chastened Adams was notably less outspoken on the issue of bail
during the state’s budget season this year. And in response to a proposal from
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, lawmakers did indeed tweak state laws in May to give
judges more discretion when someone is charged with a crime.

THE NEW GAME PLAN

While Carone said some of the crime statistics are moving in the right
direction, he cautioned it is still too early to know where the numbers will be
a year or two from now.

Regardless, some National Democrats are hoping a reoriented Adams and the recent
tweaks to bail laws — not to mention President Joe Biden being at the top of the
ticket instead of Hochul — will take some of the focus off state policy and
bring the crime conversation to the district level, where voters appear to have
much more favorable views on public safety. A recent Siena poll found less than
30 percent of respondents felt crime was a serious issue in their own
communities, though double that share thought it was very serious across the
state.

Evan Thies, an outside advisor to Adams, said those who criticized the mayor for
highlighting crime in 2022 tend to gloss over the idea that he also offered
solutions — among them a surge of police in subways to combat transit crime and
changing the state’s bail laws, which the Legislature ultimately did. If his
colleagues were to more fully embrace his message, as Adams has said they
should, they might find themselves in better electoral circumstances.

“He is one of the few Democrats in the country who has taken the issue head on
and has a lifetime of experience working on public safety issues, either as a
police officer or civil rights advocate,” Thies said. “It gives him credibility
on behalf of the party to show how a thoughtful approach to public safety can
work, and why we don’t have to make the false choice between safety and justice
that many in the GOP party try to force us into.”

Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) — who consulted with Adams during his race — was the
exception to the rule last year, winning out over his GOP challenger in a
handful of contested races that were made even more chaotic by a court-ordered
redistricting process. But his military background and endorsements from local
law enforcement are not easily replicable, which is why Democratic strategists
and their candidates are looking to go on the offensive in other ways.

Lawmakers react to hazardous haze from Canada to D.C.

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The DCCC has already purchased billboard ads accusing New York Reps. Mike Lawler
and Anthony D’Esposito, both newly elected Republicans, for failing to denounce
a tweet from former President Donald Trump in which he called to defund the FBI.
Nebeyatt Betre, a spokesperson for the DCCC, said the organization also plans to
highlight Congressional Republicans’ efforts to rein in federal spending, which
she argued would have decreased funding to various law enforcement branches.

“Democrats will consistently remind New Yorkers of their commitment to keeping
our communities safe, alongside their critical work of protecting families from
Republicans’ deceitful and dangerous plans,” Betre said in a statement.

NO SO FAST

Lawler and D’Esposito, who have not called for any decrease in FBI funding
themselves, panned the billboards — and Democrats’ plans writ large.

“The fact they would try to paint me as someone who wants to defund the police
is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard,” said D’Esposito, who served in
the NYPD for 14 years. “They are wasting their money — and quite frankly, I
encourage it.”

MOST READ

1. TRUMP NOTIFIED THAT HE IS THE TARGET OF ONGOING CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION

2. DESANTIS BREAKS HIS SILENCE ABOUT CALIFORNIA MIGRANT FLIGHTS

3. GAVIN NEWSOM WANTS 28TH AMENDMENT FOR GUNS IN U.S. CONSTITUTION

4. PAT ROBERTSON, EVANGELICAL AND CHRISTIAN POLITICAL TRAILBLAZER, DIES AT 93

5. HOUSE REPUBLICANS CANCEL VOTE TO HOLD FBI DIRECTOR IN CONTEMPT

The first-term lawmaker said that many voters who formerly considered themselves
Democrats on Long Island are now happy to support moderate Republicans, and that
in his view nothing that has transpired over the last year would seem to change
that.

Case in point is a recent series of high-profile incidents showing Democrats
will not have an easy time convincing voters they have a plan to deal with
crime, according to former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), who is running a political
action committee to increase GOP turnout. While most categories of violent
crimes in New York City are on the decline, Zeldin noted overall crime has
remained steady as felony assaults and car thefts continue to rise, and retail
thefts have caused store owners to put toothpaste and other everyday items under
lock and key.

“[Democrats] need to get stronger in fighting crime. They need to do more to
back our men and women in law enforcement. They need to rollback pro-criminal
laws and ensure prosecutors are doing their jobs and enforcing the laws,” Zeldin
said. “That’s the answer. And any attempt to try to make it seem like they are
doing a good job on all this, or to spin one or two crime categories … is going
to upset voters even more.”

The Legislature did go back to tweak bail laws. But they did not go as far as
Republicans — and Adams — wanted by allowing judges to consider how dangerous
someone is when deciding whether to set bail. That could end up being another
black mark for Democrats.

“I don’t see any significant changes,” Lawler said in an interview, suggesting
the political landscape on crime has barely shifted since it dominated elections
in 2022. “[State Democrats] made a minor tweak to the cashless bail law, but we
still do not have a ‘dangerousness’ standard in New York, and we are the only
state in the country that does not.”

Adams offers to house migrants in Gracie Mansion

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ANOTHER FRONT IN THE BATTLE

Over the last year, a new issue has climbed to the fore of the public
imagination.

Since last summer, more than 72,000 asylum-seekers have arrived in New York City
— the only major metro area in the country with a legal mandate to provide
shelter to anyone who asks for it. More than 44,000 migrants are still in the
city’s care.

As new arrivals came by bus and plane, the city began filling up its existing
shelter system. Then it began renting out hotels on an emergency basis. Now it
is turning to nontraditional spaces like school gyms, warehouses and
decommissioned prisons.

As the city reached capacity, Adams began pointedly criticizing the White House
and Biden for failing to mitigate the immigration crisis — rhetoric that
dovetailed many attacks from the GOP.

He then, however, started sending adult migrants to hotels elsewhere in the
state to alleviate pressure on the city’s system. That had the opposite effect,
sowing outrage with Republicans and injecting national border politics into
communities typically at a remove from the issue.

GOP incumbents defending their seats see immigration and the border as top
concerns for voters — and can again point to Adams as a validator of their
criticisms of the White House, even as he irks them with his bussing program.

“Eric Adams has rightly been calling out the president and Democrats for failing
to act on our border. And when it comes to cashless bail, he rightly called out
the governor and Legislature for its failure to act,” Lawler said. “I give him
credit for doing that. But it’s common sense. And by the way, that’s where most
voters are.”

Some Democrats, however, see the mayor’s rhetoric as a wakeup call.

Matthew Hiltzik, a communications professional who was once press secretary for
the state Democratic Party, said the mayor’s willingness to speak about thorny
issues could help the left engage more broadly.

“It’s very important for the mayor and others to be speaking hard truths,” he
said. “There will be those who will disagree, but those differences of opinion
can help lead to meaningful actions and solutions — while silence will just make
things worse.”

And one Democratic operative who was granted anonymity to speak with POLITICO
said the problems Adams has been highlighting have been partially out of his
control.

The Biden administration, for example, has balked at authorizing expedited work
permits for asylum-seekers, declined to direct migrants to different cities
after they cross the border and has thus far offered New York City only a
fraction of what it has spent on the crisis — though the city is set to receive
an additional $104.6 million per a Wednesday announcement. And Hochul, the New
York governor, has declined to take a leading role in directing the flow of
migrants to restive counties across the state.

In essence, while Adams is raising the issues, others in the Democratic party
also bear some responsibility for fixing them.

“No shit it’s not helpful. But to me that’s a loser’s mentality,” the operative
said. “We could pretend there are no problems in the world. But voters are not
dumb.”

* Filed under:
* Employment & Immigration,
* Immigration,
* Joe Biden,
* Joe Biden 2020,
* New York,
* Crime,
* Kathy Hochul,
* Lee Zeldin,
* Eric Adams,
* Pat Ryan

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