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Business News›Markets›Stocks›News›Valued more than Morgan Stanley, but HDFC Bank
has a score to settle with ICICI Bank
* HDFC Bank Share Price
* ICICI Bank Share Price
* Kotak Mahindra Bank Share Price
* Axis Bank Share Price
* IndusInd Bank Share Price

THE ECONOMIC TIMES DAILY NEWSPAPER IS AVAILABLE ONLINE NOW.

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VALUED MORE THAN MORGAN STANLEY, BUT HDFC BANK HAS A SCORE TO SETTLE WITH ICICI
BANK

SECTIONS
Valued more than Morgan Stanley, but HDFC Bank has a score to settle with ICICI
Bank
By
Nikhil Agarwal

, ETMarkets.comLast Updated: Jul 04, 2023, 05:17 PM IST
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Synopsis

AS ONE OF THE BIGGEST WEALTH CREATORS ON DALAL STREET, HDFC BANK HAS
HISTORICALLY COMMANDED A HIGHER VALUATION PREMIUM AGAINST ICICI BANK AND HAS
OFTEN BEEN WORSHIPPED AS THE EPITOME OF A CLASSIC CONSISTENT COMPOUNDER THAT CAN
DOUBLE EVERY 5 YEARS OR SO.

ETMarkets.com
While the probability of HDFC Bank racing ahead of global banking giants like
Morgan Stanley and HSBC in terms of market capitalisation is grabbing headlines,
what matters more for investors is whether the merged entity has enough
firepower to widen its valuation premium against closest rival ICICI Bank.

As one of the biggest wealth creators on Dalal Street, HDFC Bank has
historically commanded a higher valuation premium against ICICI Bank and has
often been worshipped as the epitome of a classic consistent compounder that can
double every 5 years or so.

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However, in the last couple of years, HDFC Bank’s valuation multiple has
contracted while ICICI Bank has had a steady increase in its valuation largely
replicating its consistent earnings performance, healthy growth in retail and
SME segments, and lower-than expected credit cost.

Uncertainties surrounding the merger was also another overhang on HDFC Bank
stock and as a result of the changing narrative, HDFC Bank is currently trading
in-line with ICICI Bank (core bank), shows calculations done by Axis Capital.

HDFC Bank shares have underperformed by gaining around 60% in the last 3 years
when the Sensex is up over 81%. During the same period, ICICI Bank stock has
zoomed 167% with institutional investors lapping up the counter with both hands.

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“In the next 12 months, the valuation gap may marginally inch higher due to
re-rating of HDFC Bank but it is expected to remain narrow vs a large gap
earlier as ICICI has significantly uplifted its business franchise and growth.
It continues to outperform the sector,” Rahul Malani, Research Analyst,
Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, told ETMarkets.

LKP Securities’ banking analyst Ajit Kabi, however, fears that after the merger,
the valuation re-rating of HDFC Bank may get delayed due to margin squeeze.

“The impact on the return profile will be keenly watched. In the short run, we
don’t see the valuation gap widening between HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank,” he said

Post-merger, the net interest margin or NIM for HDFC Bank is expected to decline
as the share of mortgages (lower yield vs. other retail loans) will increase in
the loan mix (~31% as of March 2024). “Mortgage loan is a longer tenure product
and provides stability to loan book; however, by virtue of it being a
floating-rate loan, it could lead to volatility in NIM in line with repo rate
movement,” Axis Capital’s Manish Shukla said.

HDFC Bank is expected to report a lower NIM of 4.1-4.2% over FY24-FY26 while
ICICI Bank is expected to sustain its NIM at ~4.4%.

"As far as the investment thesis of HDFC Bank is concerned, it looks solid. At
the same time we need to acknowledge that mobilization of retail deposits
remains a key monitorable to sustain healthy loan growth in near to medium term.
The bank is confident of keeping long-term profitability metrics (1.9-2.1% ROA)
with high teen growth," Malani said.

Explaining the reasons behind the re-rating of ICICI Bank, he said the Sandeep
Bakshi-led lender has converged on loan growth, credit cost, and RoE with HDFC
Bank and has even reported better margins.

Presently, HDFC Bank is trading at 13.5 times earnings which is a discount to
the 5-year average PE of 20. From the Price to Book value perspective also, the
stock is trading at 2.2 times vs the 5-year average PB of 3.5.

For many veteran investors, HDFC Bank remains the top dog.

"HDFC Bank trades at 16x one-year forward EPS, ~20% below the 15-year mean.
Strong trailing investments and cyclical tailwinds (benign asset quality and
improving real deposit rates) will help it navigate merger challenges better and
return to 17-18% EPS growth after a year," Morgan Stanley said.

With an overweight rating, the foreign brokerage has a target price of Rs 2,110
on the stock.

“The merger is synergistic. HDFC Bank gets access to secured and long tenor
retail mortgage products as well as a large customer base. Its product suite –
plus direct access to insurance and other subsidiaries – and geographical reach
are superior to those of most private banks,” it said.

Despite being bullish on HDFC Bank, most analysts see the two bank stocks
trading at largely similar valuation multiples in the near to medium term.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the
experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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