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Breadcrumb
 1. Home
 2. Europe Economics
 3. Europe Central Bank Watch
 4. Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024


DEPOSIT RATE TO PEAK AT 4%, NO RATE CUTS UNTIL H2 2024



9th March 2023

We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that
with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree
numerical guidance, but we suspect that they will state their intention to raise
interest rates further, and to leave them at the peak for a long time. We now
think that the deposit rate will reach 4% in June and stay there until the
second half of next year. And as long as market conditions remain favourable,
the Bank will probably accelerate QT in July.

Euro-zone Drop-In (14th Mar.): How will recent data shape the ECB’s messaging at
its March meeting? How high is it likely to push the policy rate to tame
inflation? Register now for this 20-minute online preview of the meeting at
10:00 GMT/11:00 CET on Tuesday, 14th March. Register here.


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DETAILS

READ MORE ABOUT

 * GDP and Activity
 * Inflation
 * Monetary Policy
 * Central Bank Meeting
 * Europe
 * Euro-zone

WRITTEN BY

Jack Allen-Reynolds

Deputy Chief Euro-zone Economist

READ MORE ABOUT

 * GDP and Activity
 * Inflation
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 * Central Bank Meeting
 * Europe
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