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WHICH NEW NATIONS WILL BE BORN IN THE NEXT YEAR?

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WHICH NEW NATIONS WILL BE BORN IN THE NEXT YEAR?

By Laura Secorun Palet

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WHY YOU SHOULD CARE

Not all nations are states, but many are trying to be. You could soon have seven
more countries to add to your ever-growing list of places to visit. 

By Laura Secorun Palet

December 7, 2013

How many countries are there in the world? The answer is 196. Or 193, or 195 or
maybe 206. It depends on whether you trust the U.N., the State Department or
Wikipedia. The fact is, defining countries is not easy and, to complicate things
even further, every so often, new states are born and added to the list. In 2008
it was Kosovo gaining independence from Serbia, and in 2011 South Sudan finally
went solo after years of civil war. So, which countries are likely to follow?


EUROPE

The European integration process should have made national borders less
relevant, yet the continent has more than 60 separatist movements — from the
island of Corsica to the hills of Veneto — making it the most likely area to see
the birth of a new state in the coming years.


SCOTLAND

On September 18,  2014, the Scottish will vote whether they want to stay in the
United Kingdom or go back to being an independent sovereign state. The
referendum has been a long time coming in the hearts of advocacy groups and
political parties, but the initiative picked up momentum when the Scottish
National Party won the overall majority in the 2011 elections. Initially the
odds for the independence didn’t look so promising, but recent positive economic
forecasts are likely to tilt the balance in favor of the secession.


CATALONIA

The nationalist movement of this region of Spain dates back to the beginning of
the 20th century and is based on the belief that Catalans have a different
history, culture and language than Spain. Initially the separatist feeling was
fueled by the arrival to the right-wing party in 2010, and, more recently, the
economic crisis has been the major cause of animosity between Madrid and
Barcelona (Catalonia being the richest region of Spain but also the most
indebted). Last year 1.5 million Catalans took to the streets of the capital to
ask for independence, and a referendum is expected to take place in 2014. Polls
suggest as many as 50 percent of Catalans want their own state, and, if
successful, their independence would pave the way for other regions like the
Basque country and Galicia. 

 


BELGIUM


Belgium has had a conflicted identity for a long time. Divided along linguistic
lines between the French and Flemish speakers, the state has been thinking about
the possibility of a split for decades. The loveless marriage between Flanders
and Walloonia is the main reason behind the serious political crisis the country
experienced between 2007 and 2010. Some experts believe that if Belgium were
truly going to split, it would have already done so, but the Flemish separatists
have recently made significant gains at the polls.


AFRICA

Africa has its fair share of regions striving for independence, probably because
most of the continent’s borders were drawn in Europe without any consideration
of pre-existing ethnic and tribal delineations. Decades of internal conflict
might lead to the disintegration of states like Congo or the independence of
regions such as Casamance — part of Senegal despite being geographically inside
Gambia — yet conflict might also halt these processes (as in the case of South
Sudan). 

 
        

Citizens of Azawad

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AZAWAD

Despite being declared an independent democratic state by the Tuareg rebels in
April 2012, Azawad has yet to receive any type of international recognition. The
region, situated in Mali’s territory of northern Sahara, is vast and
inhospitable, and al-Qaeda-linked groups have pushed the nationalist rebels
aside and taken control of the main cities. The political situation is made
considerably more complicated by the ethnic diversity in Azawad — the inhabited
southern part of the self-declared state is occupied mainly by non-Tuaregs.


SOMALILAND 


Yet another “de facto” state, Somaliland occupies the eastern third of the
country and seeks its self-determination to continue building its own economy
and operating its own administrative system and police force. The region
maintains informal ties with foreign governments, even after Somalia attempted
to restore a national government following decades as the world’s archetype of a
failed state.


MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA

The Middle East and Asia are also home to many wannabe states, from the
emblematic examples of Palestine and Tibet to the more obscure Pashtun
separatist movement of Afghanistan.


KURDISTAN 


The Kurdish people — who live divided between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey —
have been dreaming of being reunited inside their own state for 3,000 years and
they might never have been closer than now. In 2005, the consultative referendum
gave a 98.8 percent support for independence, and, with the withdrawal of
American forces from Iraq and Syria’s descent into chaos, the Kurds have a
unique window of time to redraw several Middle Eastern borders. The Kurdistan
Regional Government of northern Iraq is already the country’s most stable
sector, flying its own flag and closing its own energy and infrastructure deals
with Exxon and Turkish firms.



KOREA


Could the most militarized border in the world disappear? It might seem
far-fetched, but a collapse of the North Korean regime could pave the way to
both countries becoming one again. There are obvious differences in values and
language between the two, yet South Korean strategists are quietly building a
regional coalition to manage the economic and social costs of absorbing their
hermit neighbor, and Russia supports the idea to the point of suggesting
economic incentives. 



THE AMERICAS

North and South America seem to be the only continents that are unlikely to see
any of their borders redrawn. It’s been some time since Quebec’s two failed
independence referendums in 1980 and 1995, the Texan secession
movement continues to simmer but not boil over, and there is no indication that
French Guiana will stop being French anytime soon.

 * Laura Secorun Palet Follow Laura Secorun Palet on Twitter Follow Laura
   Secorun Palet on Facebook Contact Laura Secorun Palet


December 7, 2013

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