squiggle.com.au Open in urlscan Pro
172.67.132.143  Public Scan

Submitted URL: https://www.squiggle.com.au/
Effective URL: https://squiggle.com.au/
Submission: On May 01 via api from US — Scanned from AU

Form analysis 2 forms found in the DOM

GET /

<form method="get" action="/" id="round-selector">
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      <option value="20172"> Round 2, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20173"> Round 3, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20174"> Round 4, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20175"> Round 5, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20176"> Round 6, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20177"> Round 7, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20178"> Round 8, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20179"> Round 9, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201710"> Round 10, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201711"> Round 11, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201712"> Round 12, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201713"> Round 13, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201714"> Round 14, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201715"> Round 15, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201716"> Round 16, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201717"> Round 17, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201718"> Round 18, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201719"> Round 19, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201720"> Round 20, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201721"> Round 21, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201722"> Round 22, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201723"> Round 23, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201724"> Finals Week 1, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201725"> Finals Week 2, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201726"> Finals Week 3, 2017 </option>
      <option value="201727"> Grand Final, 2017 </option>
      <option value="20181"> Round 1, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20182"> Round 2, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20183"> Round 3, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20184"> Round 4, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20185"> Round 5, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20186"> Round 6, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20187"> Round 7, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20188"> Round 8, 2018 </option>
      <option value="20189"> Round 9, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201810"> Round 10, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201811"> Round 11, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201812"> Round 12, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201813"> Round 13, 2018 </option>
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      <option value="201815"> Round 15, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201816"> Round 16, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201817"> Round 17, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201818"> Round 18, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201819"> Round 19, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201820"> Round 20, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201821"> Round 21, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201822"> Round 22, 2018 </option>
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      <option value="201825"> Finals Week 2, 2018 </option>
      <option value="201826"> Finals Week 3, 2018 </option>
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      <option value="20193"> Round 3, 2019 </option>
      <option value="20194"> Round 4, 2019 </option>
      <option value="20195"> Round 5, 2019 </option>
      <option value="20196"> Round 6, 2019 </option>
      <option value="20197"> Round 7, 2019 </option>
      <option value="20198"> Round 8, 2019 </option>
      <option value="20199"> Round 9, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201910"> Round 10, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201911"> Round 11, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201912"> Round 12, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201913"> Round 13, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201914"> Round 14, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201915"> Round 15, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201916"> Round 16, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201917"> Round 17, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201918"> Round 18, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201919"> Round 19, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201920"> Round 20, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201921"> Round 21, 2019 </option>
      <option value="201922"> Round 22, 2019 </option>
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      <option value="202016"> Round 16, 2020 </option>
      <option value="202017"> Round 17, 2020 </option>
      <option value="202018"> Round 18, 2020 </option>
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      <option value="202122"> Round 22, 2021 </option>
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      <option value="20227"> Round 7, 2022 </option>
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      <option value="202217"> Round 17, 2022 </option>
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      <option value="202219"> Round 19, 2022 </option>
      <option value="202220"> Round 20, 2022 </option>
      <option value="202221"> Round 21, 2022 </option>
      <option value="202222"> Round 22, 2022 </option>
      <option value="202223"> Round 23, 2022 </option>
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      <option value="202225"> Finals Week 2, 2022 </option>
      <option value="202226"> Finals Week 3, 2022 </option>
      <option value="202227"> Grand Final, 2022 </option>
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      <option value="20232"> Round 2, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20233"> Round 3, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20234"> Round 4, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20235"> Round 5, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20236"> Round 6, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20237"> Round 7, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20238"> Round 8, 2023 </option>
      <option value="20239"> Round 9, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202310"> Round 10, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202311"> Round 11, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202312"> Round 12, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202313"> Round 13, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202314"> Round 14, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202315"> Round 15, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202316"> Round 16, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202317"> Round 17, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202318"> Round 18, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202319"> Round 19, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202320"> Round 20, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202321"> Round 21, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202322"> Round 22, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202323"> Round 23, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202324"> Round 24, 2023 </option>
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      <option value="202326"> Finals Week 2, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202327"> Finals Week 3, 2023 </option>
      <option value="202328"> Grand Final, 2023 </option>
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      <option value="20244"> Round 4, 2024 </option>
      <option value="20245"> Round 5, 2024 </option>
      <option value="20246"> Round 6, 2024 </option>
      <option value="20247"> Round 7, 2024 </option>
      <option value="20248"> Round 8, 2024 </option>
      <option value="20249"> Round 9, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202410"> Round 10, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202411"> Round 11, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202412"> Round 12, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202413"> Round 13, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202414"> Round 14, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202415"> Round 15, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202416"> Round 16, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202417"> Round 17, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202418"> Round 18, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202419"> Round 19, 2024 </option>
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      <option value="202422"> Round 22, 2024 </option>
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      <option value="202424"> Round 24, 2024 </option>
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      <option value="202426"> Finals Week 2, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202427"> Finals Week 3, 2024 </option>
      <option value="202428"> Grand Final, 2024 </option>
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1

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2

</a>
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3

</a>
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4

</a>
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5

</a>
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6

</a>
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7

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8

</a>
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9

</a>
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10

</a>
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11

</a>
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12

</a>
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13

</a>
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14

</a>
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15

</a>
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16

</a>
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17

</a>
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18

</a>
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19

</a>
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20

</a>
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21

</a>
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22

</a>
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23

</a>
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F1

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F2

</a>
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F3

</a>
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GF

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1

</a>
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2

</a>
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3

</a>
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4

</a>
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5

</a>
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6

</a>
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7

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8

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9

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10

</a>
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11

</a>
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12

</a>
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13

</a>
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14

</a>
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15

</a>
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16

</a>
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17

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18

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19

</a>
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20

</a>
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21

</a>
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22

</a>
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23

</a>
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F1

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F2

</a>
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F3

</a>
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GF

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1

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2

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3

</a>
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4

</a>
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5

</a>
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6

</a>
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7

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8

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9

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10

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11

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12

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13

</a>
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14

</a>
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15

</a>
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16

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17

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18

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19

</a>
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20

</a>
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21

</a>
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22

</a>
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23

</a>
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F1

</a>
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F2

</a>
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F3

</a>
      <a href="/?rid=202427&amp;virtual=0" data-rnum="27" class="roundnum">


GF

</a>
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1

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2

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3

</a>
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4

</a>
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5

</a>
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6

</a>
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7

</a>
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8

</a>
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9

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10

</a>
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11

</a>
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12

</a>
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13

</a>
      <a href="/?rid=202414&amp;virtual=0" data-rnum="14" class="roundnum">

14

</a>
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15

</a>
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16

</a>
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17

</a>
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18

</a>
      <a href="/?rid=202419&amp;virtual=0" data-rnum="19" class="roundnum">


F1

</a>
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F2

</a>
      <a href="/?rid=202421&amp;virtual=0" data-rnum="21" class="roundnum">


F3

</a>
      <a href="/?rid=202422&amp;virtual=0" data-rnum="22" class="roundnum">


GF

</a>
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GF

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GF

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24

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F1

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F2

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F3

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GF

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ROUND 1, 2017 ROUND 2, 2017 ROUND 3, 2017 ROUND 4, 2017 ROUND 5, 2017 ROUND 6,
2017 ROUND 7, 2017 ROUND 8, 2017 ROUND 9, 2017 ROUND 10, 2017 ROUND 11, 2017
ROUND 12, 2017 ROUND 13, 2017 ROUND 14, 2017 ROUND 15, 2017 ROUND 16, 2017 ROUND
17, 2017 ROUND 18, 2017 ROUND 19, 2017 ROUND 20, 2017 ROUND 21, 2017 ROUND 22,
2017 ROUND 23, 2017 FINALS WEEK 1, 2017 FINALS WEEK 2, 2017 FINALS WEEK 3, 2017
GRAND FINAL, 2017 ROUND 1, 2018 ROUND 2, 2018 ROUND 3, 2018 ROUND 4, 2018 ROUND
5, 2018 ROUND 6, 2018 ROUND 7, 2018 ROUND 8, 2018 ROUND 9, 2018 ROUND 10, 2018
ROUND 11, 2018 ROUND 12, 2018 ROUND 13, 2018 ROUND 14, 2018 ROUND 15, 2018 ROUND
16, 2018 ROUND 17, 2018 ROUND 18, 2018 ROUND 19, 2018 ROUND 20, 2018 ROUND 21,
2018 ROUND 22, 2018 ROUND 23, 2018 FINALS WEEK 1, 2018 FINALS WEEK 2, 2018
FINALS WEEK 3, 2018 GRAND FINAL, 2018 ROUND 1, 2019 ROUND 2, 2019 ROUND 3, 2019
ROUND 4, 2019 ROUND 5, 2019 ROUND 6, 2019 ROUND 7, 2019 ROUND 8, 2019 ROUND 9,
2019 ROUND 10, 2019 ROUND 11, 2019 ROUND 12, 2019 ROUND 13, 2019 ROUND 14, 2019
ROUND 15, 2019 ROUND 16, 2019 ROUND 17, 2019 ROUND 18, 2019 ROUND 19, 2019 ROUND
20, 2019 ROUND 21, 2019 ROUND 22, 2019 ROUND 23, 2019 FINALS WEEK 1, 2019 FINALS
WEEK 2, 2019 FINALS WEEK 3, 2019 GRAND FINAL, 2019 ROUND 1, 2020 ROUND 2, 2020
ROUND 3, 2020 ROUND 4, 2020 ROUND 5, 2020 ROUND 6, 2020 ROUND 7, 2020 ROUND 8,
2020 ROUND 9, 2020 ROUND 10, 2020 ROUND 11, 2020 ROUND 12, 2020 ROUND 13, 2020
ROUND 14, 2020 ROUND 15, 2020 ROUND 16, 2020 ROUND 17, 2020 ROUND 18, 2020
FINALS WEEK 1, 2020 FINALS WEEK 2, 2020 FINALS WEEK 3, 2020 GRAND FINAL, 2020
ROUND 1, 2021 ROUND 2, 2021 ROUND 3, 2021 ROUND 4, 2021 ROUND 5, 2021 ROUND 6,
2021 ROUND 7, 2021 ROUND 8, 2021 ROUND 9, 2021 ROUND 10, 2021 ROUND 11, 2021
ROUND 12, 2021 ROUND 13, 2021 ROUND 14, 2021 ROUND 15, 2021 ROUND 16, 2021 ROUND
17, 2021 ROUND 18, 2021 ROUND 19, 2021 ROUND 20, 2021 ROUND 21, 2021 ROUND 22,
2021 ROUND 23, 2021 FINALS WEEK 1, 2021 FINALS WEEK 2, 2021 FINALS WEEK 3, 2021
GRAND FINAL, 2021 ROUND 1, 2022 ROUND 2, 2022 ROUND 3, 2022 ROUND 4, 2022 ROUND
5, 2022 ROUND 6, 2022 ROUND 7, 2022 ROUND 8, 2022 ROUND 9, 2022 ROUND 10, 2022
ROUND 11, 2022 ROUND 12, 2022 ROUND 13, 2022 ROUND 14, 2022 ROUND 15, 2022 ROUND
16, 2022 ROUND 17, 2022 ROUND 18, 2022 ROUND 19, 2022 ROUND 20, 2022 ROUND 21,
2022 ROUND 22, 2022 ROUND 23, 2022 FINALS WEEK 1, 2022 FINALS WEEK 2, 2022
FINALS WEEK 3, 2022 GRAND FINAL, 2022 ROUND 1, 2023 ROUND 2, 2023 ROUND 3, 2023
ROUND 4, 2023 ROUND 5, 2023 ROUND 6, 2023 ROUND 7, 2023 ROUND 8, 2023 ROUND 9,
2023 ROUND 10, 2023 ROUND 11, 2023 ROUND 12, 2023 ROUND 13, 2023 ROUND 14, 2023
ROUND 15, 2023 ROUND 16, 2023 ROUND 17, 2023 ROUND 18, 2023 ROUND 19, 2023 ROUND
20, 2023 ROUND 21, 2023 ROUND 22, 2023 ROUND 23, 2023 ROUND 24, 2023 FINALS WEEK
1, 2023 FINALS WEEK 2, 2023 FINALS WEEK 3, 2023 GRAND FINAL, 2023 ROUND 0, 2024
ROUND 1, 2024 ROUND 2, 2024 ROUND 3, 2024 ROUND 4, 2024 ROUND 5, 2024 ROUND 6,
2024 ROUND 7, 2024 ROUND 8, 2024 ROUND 9, 2024 ROUND 10, 2024 ROUND 11, 2024
ROUND 12, 2024 ROUND 13, 2024 ROUND 14, 2024 ROUND 15, 2024 ROUND 16, 2024 ROUND
17, 2024 ROUND 18, 2024 ROUND 19, 2024 ROUND 20, 2024 ROUND 21, 2024 ROUND 22,
2024 ROUND 23, 2024 ROUND 24, 2024 FINALS WEEK 1, 2024 FINALS WEEK 2, 2024
FINALS WEEK 3, 2024 GRAND FINAL, 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 F1 F2 F3 GF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 F1 F2 F3 GF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 F1 F2 F3 GF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 F1 F2 F3 GF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 F1 F2 F3 GF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 F1 F2 F3 GF
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 F1 F2 F3 GF
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 F1 F2 F3 GF
NEXT


ROUND 8, 2024

ADE
v
POR
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

60%

in 23 hours
Tips
CAR
v
COL
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

53%

in 2 days
Tips
SYD
v
GWS
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

55%

in 2 days
Tips
STK
v
NOR
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

84%

in 2 days
Tips
MEL
v
GEE
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

52%

in 2 days
Tips
WCE
v
ESS
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

60%

in 3 days
Tips
RIC
v
FRE
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

53%

in 3 days
Tips
WBD
v
HAW
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

72%

in 3 days
Tips
BRI
v
GCS
Created with Highcharts
6.2.00510152025303540455055606570758085909510005101520253035404550556065707580859095100

63%

in 3 days
Tips
Who Won The Round? Ladder Predictor Rate My Ladder Tips Leaderboard

PROJECTED ACTUAL

Wins % Range
1
Geelong 17.3 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2
Sydney 15.7 126%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–4
3
GWS 15.6 122%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–4
4
Melbourne 15.0 118%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3–5
5
Carlton 14.3 114%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
4–7
6
Port Adelaide 13.9 112%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2–7
7
Collingwood 12.8 108%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5–10
8
Essendon 11.9 97%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–13
9
Gold Coast 11.9 102%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–13
10
Fremantle 11.7 96%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
7–12
11
Western Bulldogs 11.4 107%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–12
12
Brisbane Lions 11.2 106%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
8–13
13
St Kilda 10.0 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11–14
14
Adelaide 9.8 98%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12–14
15
Richmond 6.9 83%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–17
16
West Coast 7.0 77%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–17
17
Hawthorn 6.8 80%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15–17
18
North Melbourne 3.1 62%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18

After Round 7, 2024.

PROJECTIONS
W L D % History Wins Finish
1
Geelong 7 – – 135.4%
+10.3
1
2
Sydney 6 1 – 147.7%
+9.7
2
3
GWS 6 1 – 136.3%
+9.6
3
4
Melbourne 5 2 – 126.1%
+10.0
4
5
Port Adelaide 5 2 – 120.3%
+8.9
6
6
Carlton 5 2 – 112.1%
+9.3
5
7
Essendon 4 2 1 93.7%
+7.4
8
8
Fremantle 4 3 – 111.7%
+7.7
10
9
Gold Coast 4 3 – 101.0%
+7.9
9
10
Collingwood 3 3 1 97.9%
+9.3
7
11
Western Bulldogs 3 4 – 114.7%
+8.4
11
12
Adelaide 2 5 – 96.6%
+7.8
14
13
Brisbane Lions 2 5 – 94.2%
+9.2
12
14
St Kilda 2 5 – 89.3%
+8.0
13
15
West Coast 2 5 – 74.1%
+5.0
16
16
Richmond 1 6 – 75.5%
+5.9
15
17
Hawthorn 1 6 – 69.9%
+5.8
17
18
North Melbourne – 7 – 57.3%
+3.1
18

SCOREBOARD

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POWER RANKINGS

123456789101112131415161718

})})})})})})})})})})})})})})})})})})


MODELS LEADERBOARD

Tips Bits MAE Correct

3 7 7 5 9 4 5 8

48 10.80 23.62 76.2%

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 9

47 10.52 24.14 74.6%

1 7 7 4 9 4 5 9

46 12.29 23.65 73.0%

3 7 6 4 8 4 5 9

46 10.53 25.11 73.0%

3 8 7 4 8 4 3 9

46 10.25 24.65 73.0%

3 7 6 4 9 4 5 7

45 13.07 23.68 71.4%
Punters

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 8

45 11.02 23.95 71.4%
s10

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 9

45 10.49 24.56 71.4%
Aggregate

3 6 6 4 9 4 5 8

45 10.07 24.49 71.4%

2 7 6 4 9 4 5 8

45 8.18 25.11 71.4%

3 7 5 4 8 4 5 9

45 7.68 26.28 71.4%

3 7 6 4 9 4 4 7

44 10.28 24.70 69.8%

1 7 6 4 9 4 5 8

44 9.26 25.02 69.8%

3 6 6 5 8 4 4 8

44 9.19 25.20 69.8%

3 6 6 4 8 4 5 8

44 8.75 25.29 69.8%

3 7 6 4 9 3 4 8

44 7.47 24.49 69.8%

3 7 6 4 6 4 4 9

43 12.71 25.21 68.3%

3 6 6 4 8 4 4 8

43 10.88 24.80 68.3%

2 6 6 4 9 4 4 8

43 9.53 24.89 68.3%

2 7 8 4 7 4 3 8

43 9.05 24.87 68.3%

3 5 6 5 9 4 3 8

43 8.13 25.48 68.3%

3 5 6 6 8 4 4 7

43 7.85 24.76 68.3%

3 6 6 4 7 4 4 8

42 9.82 25.26 66.7%

2 6 6 4 7 4 4 9

42 9.81 24.67 66.7%

3 6 6 3 8 4 4 8

42 9.26 25.18 66.7%

3 6 6 4 9 4 3 7

42 8.07 24.94 66.7%

3 7 5 4 8 4 4 7

42 7.68 25.36 66.7%

2 7 6 4 8 4 4 7

42 5.66 25.98 66.7%

1 7 6 5 5 4 4 9

41 4.69 27.62 65.1%

1 5 6 4 9 4 3 8

40 7.36 26.34 63.5%

Show More


AFL LADDER PREDICTOR




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LIST CHANGES

Posted on March 6, 2024March 14, 2024

Three new models join the Squiggle comp:



And retiring this year is The Flag.

That makes 26 models (plus Punters). Which is, you know, quite a lot of models.

Edit (14-Mar-2024): Wait! There’s a late entry! So that makes 27.


LADDER PREDICTOR 2024 IS ONLINE

Posted on November 18, 2023November 18, 2023

Every year, the AFL unexpectedly releases the fixture on the first day of my
holidays. Then thirty seconds later people start messaging to ask when I’m
updating the site.

This year, I was in line to board my plane at Melbourne Airport. I’m about to
attempt to run a half-marathon up Mt. Wellington in Hobart, by the way, so if I
don’t make it back, that’s what happened.

Anyway, Squiggle is now updated for 2024, except for all the things that
immediately broke because of Round 0. It will take a while until I get home and
take a look at why the in-house model apparently thinks Fremantle are red-hot
for next year, and whether that’s legit. I don’t think it’s super urgent because
although this model has an outstanding track record, that’s based on final
preseason predictions, made once we have info on off-season injuries as well as
practice matches, which can change the numbers a lot.

But we have 2024 games up the top, we’re collecting 2024 tips & predictions from
models, and you can use the ladder predictor, so, you know, priorities.

2024 Squiggle Ladder Predictor


PREPARING TO 0PEN 2024

Posted on November 18, 2023January 8, 2024

You can’t tell, but the first character of “0pen” above is a zero. Because the
AFL realized that when everyone wants different things in the first round, it’s
easier to accomodate them if you have two first rounds.

So Round 1, 2024 will be the 2nd round. And the first round, if you have to give
it a number, will be 0.

That’s problematic for people like me, because I do have to give rounds numbers,
and Round 0 is how I’ve always designated ratings and predictions generated
prior to the start of a season. So now I have to choose:

 1. Stick to the same numbering scheme, so “1” still means the first round, and
    “2” the second, etc. This would be ridiculous, because no matter how careful
    we all are, it will be endlessly confusing for “2” to mean “Round 1.”
 2. Change the numbering scheme, so that “0” means “Opening Round,” and “-1” is
    pre-season. (Also, in some contexts, change “0” from meaning “no round in
    particular, give me all the data you have.”) This is also terrible, because
    that’s not how it’s worked before, and will break some existing third-party
    apps that rely on the Squiggle API, of which there are quite a lot.

Nevertheless, #2 is less stupid than #1. So I think that’s what I have to do.




2023 RESULTS

Posted on November 18, 2023November 18, 2023

Since Twitter has begun sliding into the sea and can’t be relied on to exist in
the future.

Full leaderboard

🏆 Overall champion: @EloPredicts (156 tips)

Runner-up: @thecruncherau (154 tips)

🏆 Bits champion: @AflGlicko (35.76 bits)

Runner-up: @MatterOfStats (33.24)

🏆 MAE champion: @AflGlicko (24.91)

Runner-up: @MatterOfStats (25.09)

The s10 index for 2024, i.e. this year’s top 10 performing models by MAE:

@AflGlicko and @GRAFTRatings re-enter the index, @MatterOfStats & the Squiggle
in-house model make it 7 in a row, and @AflLadder misses for the first time
since joining in 2018.


A REVIEW OF PRESEASON LADDER PREDICTIONS (2023)

Posted on September 14, 2023September 14, 2023

For the fifth consecutive year, Squiggle carefully recorded all public preseason
ladder predictions made by experts and media pundits, and scored how accurate
those predictions turned out to be.

Not all well-known media names do preseason ladder predictions. In fact, only a
minority seem willing to put their name to an actual ladder, as opposed to
safer, more vague statements about which teams might rise or fall. This year, we
found fifty of them. All should be applauded. But also scored.

Every 2023 Expert Ladder Prediction Rated

Since this is the fifth year, we’ve built a reasonable idea of how reliable
people tend to be in the long-term; that is, whether a great prediction this
year means that person is likely to come back with another the year after. But
before we get to that, here’s how 2023 shook out:

Best ladder: (Tie) Johnathon Horn (The Guardian) & Jon Pierik (The Age)

Horn led for most of the back end of the year, thanks to his faith in
Collingwood and Port Adelaide. But Pierik closed in the final round with a
ladder that correctly tipped 6 out of 8 finalists, and placed eight teams within
a rung of their actual position. There might have been a fair bit of luck, given
the closeness of the middle of the pack, and how easily it might have been
different. But it was a great ladder. The rating system judges them different
but equally good, so Horn and Pierik share the honours.

Best ladder by a model: Squiggle

It was a poor year for models, who went very heavy on Geelong and underestimated
Collingwood. None made the top 10, while many fell to the bottom half of the 50
predictions. The best was Squiggle’s own in-house model, which was ranked 14th.

The betting odds weren’t a great guide, either, with an aggregate of where
punters were putting their money landing 25th, right in the middle.

Worst ladder: 2022 + Pythagorus

To be fair, this wasn’t Max Laughton’s own prediction (which is ranked 30th). It
was, instead, a completely reasonable application of Pythagorean wins to adjust
what the 2022 ladder “should” have looked like. But since it was supposed to
tell us what the ladder would look like in 2023, too, I included it. And it did
badly: worse, in fact, than if no adjustment was performed at all, and we
guessed that this year’s ladder would look the same as last year’s.

With only half the Top 8 correct, no team in the exact right spot, and five
teams out by at least 8 rungs, it ties with Damien Barrett’s 2019 entry as the
worst ladder prediction we’ve recorded.

Long-Term Performance Award

Last year, we lauded Peter Ryan, who over four years maintained an average rank
of 8th, including topping the list in 2022. Unfortunately, Ryan had a shocker
this year, finishing near the bottom, mostly because of a failure of optimism in
Port Adelaide, Carlton, GWS, and St Kilda.

The best long-term performers, counting everyone who made a prediction in at
least 3 of the last 5 years, are:

Average RankExpert10.8Squiggle14.6Sam McClure (The Age)15.4Peter Ryan (The
Age)15.6Jake Niall (The Age)16.0Riley Beveridge (AFL Media)16.0Nat Edwards (AFL
Media)16.3Sarah Olle (AFL Media)16.3Daniel Cherney (The Age)17.0Michael Gleeson
(Code Sports)18.2Jon Pierik (The Age)

Each year there are about 50 expert predictions, so it’s challenging to remain
even in the top half on a long-term basis. Or, put another way, ladder
predictions seem to be a bit of a crapshoot, with not much evidence that someone
who made a good prediction this year will be able to do it again next year.

However…

Squiggle is, frankly, killing it here, outperforming the whole football industry
by a significant margin over the tracked period. You can judge for yourself
whether this is due to the brilliance of the Squiggle algorithm or the awfulness
of the average media ladder prediction. And, to be sure, a big reason for this
project was the suspicion that a lot of ladder predictions got tossed around
each year by people who didn’t expect anyone to look at them again after March.

Live Running Predictions

Squiggle also tracks ladder predictions made throughout the year by various
models, including our own. This year, Squiggle narrowly beat out Glicko Ratings,
Matter of Stats, Wheelo Ratings, and AFLalytics.


NEW MODEL: DON’T BLAME THE DATA

Posted on March 7, 2023March 7, 2023

Welcome to 2023’s first new model: Don’t Blame the Data from data scientist
Jason Zivkovic, the author of data management packages worldfootballR, chessR
and others.

DBtD is coming out of the gate pretty hard, with some confident early tips and
(so far) the only upset tip for the Crows to defeat GWS. Good luck, buddy.




REPLAY PAST SEASONS IN THE LADDER PREDICTOR

Posted on January 10, 2023January 10, 2023

You can now load past years and either click through real results one game at a
time, or fill in the whole year with Reset and tweak key results to see what
changes.

Load a past season: FIXTURE ➡️ Allow tipping of past games

Progress one real result at a time: keep tapping ACTUAL.

Fill in the whole season: RESET ➡️ RESET TO ACTUAL.

predictor.squiggle.com.au


FIXTURE ANALYSIS 2022

Posted on November 18, 2022November 24, 2022

First, the headlines: Geelong had the easiest fixture, GWS the hardest. But
before we go any further, an important disclaimer: the Cats were so comfortably
in far of everyone else, not even the league’s hardest fixture would have kept
them from the minor premiership.

Home advantage is important, but not that important. If home advantage was as
important as people say, all the left-column circles would be green and all the
right ones would be red:

Games Won & Lost in 2022 (incl finals)

With Significant Home Advantage
Neutral-ish
With Significant Away Disadvantage
1
GeelongWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWWWWL
2
SydneyLWWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWLLWLWWWL
3
BrisbaneWWWLLWWWWWWWWLWWLWLWWWLLL
4
CollingwoodWLWWWWLWWWWWLLWWWWLLLWWWL
5
FremantleLWWLWLLWWWWWWWLLWWWDLWWW
6
MelbourneWLLLWLWLWWWWLLWWWWWWLWWW
7
RichmondWWWWDWWWLWWLWLLWLLLWLWL
8
BulldogsWLWWLLWWLWWWLWWWLLWLLLL
9
CarltonWWWWLWWLWLWWWLLLWLWLLL
10
St KildaWLLLWLLWLWWWLLWLWLWWLW
11
Port AdelaideLLWWWWLWWLWLWLLLLLLWLW
12
Gold CoastLLWWWLWWLWWLLLLLLWLLWW
13
HawthornWWWWLWWLLLLLLLLLLLWLWL
14
AdelaideLLLLWLWLWWWLLLLWWLLLLW
15
EssendonWWWLLLLWWLLLLLLLWLLLLW
16
GWSLLLLLLWWWWLLLLLLLLWWLL
17
West CoastLLLLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLL
18
North MelbourneLLLLLWLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLL

There is a bias there – home advantage is worth something – but it’s not a
guaranteed ride to the Top Eight, or even a single extra win. You still actually
have to be a good team.

(In the above table, “Significant Home Advantage” means games between interstate
teams at a home ground, Geelong playing anyone at Kardinia Park, and Hawthorn or
North dragging anyone off to Tassie.)

Of course, there are different degrees of home advantage. In Round 19 alone, we
had:

 * West Coast vs St Kilda @ Perth Stadium (WA) – an interstate game with fervent
   crowd support for the home team – that’s about as extreme a case as you’ll
   find, and good for 13.3 pts, by Squiggle’s model, which is generally
   calibrated to the level of crowd support
 * Carlton vs GWS @ Docklands (Victoria) – an interstate game with good home
   crowd support, at a venue frequented fairly often by the away team – that’s
   7.9 pts
 * Brisbane vs Gold Coast @ the Gabba (Queensland) – two teams with smaller fan
   bases from the same state at one’s home ground – 2.8 pts
 * Collingwood vs Essendon @ MCG (Victoria) – an extremely well-supported team
   hosts a very well-supported team at the Magpies’ home ground – 2.6 pts
 * North Melbourne vs Hawthorn @ Bellerive Oval (Tasmania) – two teams in their
   secondary state, at a ground more often played by the Kangaroos – 2.0 pts

There’s a real hodge-podge of scenarios, which over the season shake out a bit
like this:

Don’t stare at that too long, though; there’s not much to be gleaned from it.
The Squiggle model considers Collingwood and Richmond to enjoy many games of
mild home advantage, by virtue of their large crowds at MCG games. The South
Australian & West Australian teams usually have 10 games of extreme home
advantage but fewer games of extreme disadvantage, as they revisit the same
venues repeatedly (especially Docklands). NSW and Queensland teams essentially
never create the same level of home advantage as the rest of the league, due to
their lack of fan-filled cauldrons. And the Cats have a cauldron as well as warm
fan support at many of their away games, which is a pretty handy setup.

Let’s now throw in Opposition Strength, because that’s the other big piece of
the puzzle. As you know, each year the AFL carefully divides the previous year’s
ladder into blocks of 6 teams, and assigns double-up games based on an
equalisation strategy, so that weaker teams receive gentler match-ups.

Ha ha! We know that never works, since it only takes a couple of teams to shoot
up or down the ladder to throw the whole thing out. But it may never have worked
worse than this year, with Geelong, the eventual premier (and last year’s
preliminary finalist) receiving quite gentle double-up games, while back-to-back
wooden spooners North Melbourne faced a much sterner test. To some extent, this
happens because teams can’t play themselves – you can’t fixture the wooden
spooner against the wooden spooner – but still, things have not gone well when
the premier has double-up games against the bottom 2 teams (representing 4 wins
combined), while the bottom team faces both Grand Finalists, who have 34 wins.

Overall, Adelaide did well out of the 2022 fixture – which, as a bottom-6 team,
was at least to plan. Gold Coast, also lowly ranked in 2021, received a terrific
set of double-up games, but lost it all to home advantage, as they hosted
interstate teams at Carrara only 8 times while flying out 10 times themselves –
and not just to familiar Docklands; the Suns were dispatched to every state plus
the Northern Territory (twice), and even country Victoria.

St Kilda had terrible everything, as usual; St Kilda always have a terrible
fixture, to the point where I’m starting to think it must be written into the
AFL constitution. They hosted just 4 interstate teams (at Docklands, which their
opponents visit often) while taking 6 interstate trips, including two to Perth,
plus a bus to Kardinia. Their five double-up games – which should have been
mild, as a middle-6 team – included both Grand Finalists, a Preliminary
Finalist, and a Semi-Finalist. This combination of bad luck and bad design is
very St Kilda, as was the Round 7 home game the Saints sold to play in Cairns
and subsequently lost by a single point: a rare sighting of the case where a
team’s unfair fixture really did cost them the match.

GWS also had four finalists in its five double-up games, and its fifth opponent
was Carlton, who missed finals by a point. That’s enough for the Giants to take
the booby prize for the worst set of match-ups.

Geelong’s bounty, while appreciated, I’m sure, was mostly wasted, since they
finished two wins and percentage clear on top of the ladder, and were decidedly
the best team in finals as well as the second half of the year in general (after
Melbourne’s slide). It’s unlikely their fixture affected anything, and the Cats
almost had a case for being dudded, escaping by 3 points against the Tigers in a
home game played at the MCG, and by a goal against Collingwood in a home final
at the same venue.

The 2023 AFL fixture will be released in the near future, and I have some
thoughts. Chief among them: We are not actually achieving much equalization when
we focus on the 6-6-6 system – which is obviously flawed and often produces the
opposite effect – while ignoring systemic, completely predictable imbalances,
such as:

 * Poor teams sell home games.
 * Some teams play away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at
   home.
 * Some teams have many more games at the Grand Final ground – which doesn’t
   matter if you don’t make it, but can matter quite a lot if you do.
 * Teams with smaller fan bases generate less home advantage.
 * Geelong generate more home advantage playing any Melbourne-based team at
   Kardinia Park than they give away in the reverse match-up.
 * Some teams have home games shifted to their opponents’ home ground.

To be fair, the fixture-makers do seem to be aware of most of the above, and I
think they make some effort to avoid any of them becoming too egregious. But the
priority is clearly the double-up games, which is the least predictable part of
the equation. The result is that Docklands teams – especially St Kilda! – are
almost guaranteed a bottom-4 fixture every year.

And maybe we can’t fix that; maybe the world isn’t ready for a fixture that
provides kinder fixtures to poor teams with smaller fan bases. But it should be
part of the conversation. Today, any talk of fixture fairness quickly shifts to
how many times each team should play each other, and stops there, as if that’s
the whole problem. It’s not: a 17-round fixture (or 34 rounds) won’t stop teams
selling games, or being shifted to the MCG to face Richmond and Collingwood, or
being sent to country Victoria; or, for that matter, being lucky enough to play
a team when they have a bunch of outs versus when they don’t.

It’s a grab-bag of factors, and there’s no way to smooth them all out. Teams
will inevitably have good fixtures and bad fixtures. But we can do better if we
don’t rest the whole thing on 6-6-6 and the clearly wrong assumption that next
year’s ladder will look just the same as today’s.




THE SQUIGGLIES 2022: LADDER PREDICTIONS

Posted on August 24, 2022September 16, 2022

Oh sure, now, everyone looks back on the preseason ladders and mocks how wrong
they were. “Essendon to make finals,” they say, shaking their heads. “Not even
close.”

But no-one was close, of course; everyone’s ladder has a howler or two. If you
picked Essendon to fall, you probably didn’t also pick Collingwood to rise, or
Port Adelaide to miss.

That doesn’t mean they’re all equally bad, though. Here at Squiggle, we value
the signal in the noise, even if there’s still a lot of noise. And ladder
predictions that were less wrong than everyone else’s are to be celebrated.

Every 2022 Expert Ladder Prediction Rated

Best Ladder: Peter Ryan

This is a heck of a good one, and it’s no flash in the pan:



Ryan’s ladder managed to get 7/8 finalists, which is fantastic given that three
of them finished last year in 11th, 12th, and 17th. (His tip of Fremantle for
6th — a single rung too low — was especially good.) Like everyone else, he
missed Collingwood, but correctly foresaw exits by Port Adelaide, Essendon and
GWS. He also resisted the popular urge to push Geelong down the ladder, and
wisely slotted the Eagles into the bottom 4.

Damian Barrett also registered a good ladder this year, with 6/8 finalists and
three teams in the exact right spot. There was a fair gap from these two to Jake
Niall in third.

Runner-Up: Damian Barrett

Best Ladder by a Model: Squiggle (6th overall)

Squiggle nudged out other models with some optimism on Sydney and pessimism on
Port Adelaide, but not enough of the former on Collingwood and not enough of the
latter on GWS and the Bulldogs.

Honourable Mention: The Cruncher (11th overall)

Long-Term Performance Award: Peter Ryan

Not everyone publishes a ladder prediction every year — it’s a little shocking
how frequently journalists come and go from the industry — so although I always
have a bag of 40 or 50 experts and models to rank, only half appear in all four
of the years I’ve been doing this. Of those, Peter Ryan has the best record,
finishing 19th (out of 45), 9th (/56), 3rd (/42) and 1st (/45). That’s an
average rank of 8th, making him the only one to outperform Squiggle over the
same period.

Honourable Mention: Squiggle (5th, 20th, 9th, 6th)

Live Running Predictions

Squiggle pipped AFLalytics and Wheelo Ratings on the Ladder Scoreboard this
year, mostly thanks to some solid returns in the early rounds.

Throughout the year — but especially early — the teams models overrated the most
were GWS and Hawthorn, while they underrated Collingwood and Fremantle.


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ABOUT SQUIGGLE

Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. By
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