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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WHO TULSI GABBARD IS...


BY WILLIAMBANZAI7

And Mitt Zombie most certainly is not...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HOW MUCH IS THAT BIG GOLD CUBE WORTH?!


BY MONETARY METALS

A pop artist made a giant cube out of gold. We wanted to see how much it was
worth. Answer: It's not what you think.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CHINA'S "DO-NOTHING APPROACH KEEPS RUSSIA ON LIFE SUPPORT" PLAYS BOTH SIDES
AGAINST MIDDLE


BY VBL

Economic IV drip should keep Russia alive just enough to keep everyone in line.




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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




SO MANY RUSSIANS ARE BUYING GOLD THAT CENTRAL BANK HALTS BANK PURCHASES

by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2022 - 03:00 AM

Russia's central bank announced that it will suspend purchases of gold from
banks due to overwhelming demand from households, Reuters reports. The
purchasing pause will take effect Tuesday with no end date set.



"Currently, households' demand for buying physical gold in bars has increased,
driven, in particular, by the abolition of value-added tax on these operations,"
reads a statement from the central bank.



On Feb. 28, the central bank raised the key rate from 9.5% to 20% as the ruble
crashed to record lows amid the Kremlin's so-called "special operation" in
Ukraine. The announcement is a flip-flop from a February announcement that the
financial authority would resume gold purchases after commercial banks were hit
with Western sanctions in response to the invasion.

"With the goal of diversifying the central bank's reserves, at the moment there
is no sense in building up reserves in gold," according to VTB analysts, who
added that the banking sector's structural liquidity deficit had contracted to
under 4 trillion rubles (US$36 billion), down from a record 7 trillion rubles.

Before the rush into gold, many wealthy Russians had been purchasing luxury
items such as watches and other jewelry in order to defend against the ruble's
tumble. While cryptos were also purchased aggressively, there is little insight
into who much bitcoin Russians currently own.

Analysts from BCS suggested that the gold purchases will help reduce the amount
of cash in circulation, and will help banks' liquidity.

In lieu of funding via gold purchases, Russia's central bank has been providing
liquidity to banks through more conventional operations such as holding daily
repo auctions at lending institutions. So far, these have proven sufficient.

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17 hours ago at 10:23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HOW HAS SPX PERFORMED POST VIX FUTS SPREAD SPIKING?


Source: Refinitiv
The 2/8 months VIX futs spread is trading at very elevated levels. Stress is
rich. Note that the SPX has managed bouncing on previous occasions when the VIX
futs spread traded at elevated levels. However, he big difference this time
around is the fact VIX has actually managed trending higher, despite the actual
SPX moves not having moved much more lately. Let's see if Powell can "fix" some
of the excess stress...
13 hours ago at 13:56

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SELL LOW, BUY HIGH MANIA



See TME's daily newsletter email below. For the 24/7 market intelligence feed
and thematic trading emails, sign up for ZH premium here.

SPX - what is the pain trade?

SPX continues trading stuck in a dynamic wedge like formation. We bounced once
again on the strong support levels around the 4140 area. First resistance is
coming up just shy of the big 4300 level. Note the negative trend line coming in
there as well as the 21 day moving average. Don't forget that short gamma and
horrible liquidity remain strong drivers of this market as dealers continue
selling lows and buying highs. Imagine the pain should this trade above the
negative trend line and the crowd decides to chase the rip...



SOURCE: REFINITIV



SOURCE: TIER1ALPHA

What comes up must come down - oil edition

Oil has given back the entire panic move higher. A week ago analysts were
competing about the upside px target for oil, but this week most are quiet. On
March 8 (here) we pointed out oil volatility was reversing lower and wrote: "Oil
"VIX", OVX, is putting in the first down candle since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Early signs of less stress going forward?"

This only shows the importance of watching all dimensions of an asset.
Volatility was the early sign this time around. Note Brent is currently below
the 21 day (haven't seen that in a long time). First support is the short term
trend line slightly lower and then the 50 day. Second chart shows oil vs OVX
(oil volatility). OVX remains elevated.



SOURCE: REFINITIV



SOURCE: REFINITIV

Gold - max frustration

Gold has not been spared in the latest commodities reversal. Too many got too
excited at recent highs with several investment banks upgrading gold after
having missed the "easy" part of the trade. On February 10th we outlined the
case for gold needing to reverse and that a frustrating consolidation was about
to start (premium email subs, sign up here). We pointed out that extremely
elevated gold vols was a great way to enhance yield for "must be longs". Gold is
approaching the first support levels around the 1920/1910 area (trading just
below the 21 day moving as of writing). Gold lacks a trend and remains stuck in
a huge range. 50 day comes in at 1870, but that seems distant.



SOURCE: REFINITIV



SOURCE: REFINITIV

How much of the growth was real, and how much was COVID?

"Investors are still trying to ascertain the true impact of the revenue pulled
forward by Covid. It’s still unclear what sustainable growth resembles and what
margins look like as expenses normalize and the world reopens. Valuation and
positioning recalibration from the liquidity-driven multiple expansion induced
by the Fed balance sheet enlargement and Covid-related stimulus is also arising.
SHOP, DOCU, ROKU, CHWY, ZM & PTON are all underperforming the SPX and CCMP since
3/1/20, with several trading well below pre-Covid levels. There’s also the
lingering uncertainty whether Covid has another trick up its sleeve (though the
mentality of dealing with Covid has undoubtedly evolved)" (Ron Adler, JPM)

Equity investors cascade puking Europe

Investors sold a record amount of European equity funds for the second
consecutive week, redeeming USD 13.5bn worth of their holdings, more than double
the USD 6.7bn record outflow in only the previous week. Bernstein:

1. These are record outflows in dollar terms, but when we adjust for changes in
AUM over time outflows were stronger during the global financial crises and in
2010.

2. The duration of outflows in previous crisis periods suggest that there may be
further selling to come.

3. However, previous historic periods of selling often followed periods of
strong sustained buying activity, a pattern not followed by European equity
funds since 2018, so capitulation and recovery in the flow data may follow a
different playbook this time.



SOURCE: SANFORD BERNSTEIN

"Smart" money running lowest net longs since April 2020

The crowd that keeps on under performing has scaled back on net longs...Buy
high, sell low?



SOURCE: BOFA

VIX options liquidity (post the VXX news)

There is not direct impact on VIX options from the VXX news yesterday, but
liquidity could be affected. GS writes: "A significant proportion of VIX futures
liquidity is linked to ETP trading, so a reduction in VXX secondary share
trading could lead to reduced liquidity in VIX futures and options. VIX option
markets are already large relative to VIX future markets: ahead of today’s VIX
expiration, the ratio of options open interest to futures open interest is as
high as it has been at any recent point outside the height of COVID."

Is there any asset with rising liquidity?



SOURCE: GS

Your balanced portfolio needs a small allocation to Bitcoin

Emphasis on small...GS: "Our analysis suggests that just a small allocation to
Bitcoin in a standard US 60/40 portfolio would have enhanced risk-adjusted
returns materially since 2014. However, Bitcoin’s strongest performance
contribution to the portfolio resulted from isolated rallies in 2017, 2019 and
2020, when it received a major boost from the COVID-19 crisis. Since 2014,
Bitcoin has often declined during equity drawdowns, as in 2015, 2018 and 1Q20.
These large drawdowns, combined with Bitcoin’s high volatility, have eventually
outweighed the benefits of having it in a portfolio at higher allocations. Even
with just a 5% allocation in a 60/40 portfolio, Bitcoin drove roughly 20% of the
portfolio’s volatility, while US 10y bonds contributed just 2%"



SOURCE: GOLDMAN

Dry Powder

Record high dry powder in private markets. US$ trillions, global



SOURCE: PITCHBOOK

Asian tech - now that's oversold

HSTECH RSI is at the lowest levels ever. Buy some for the kids (or
grandchildren) and forget?



SOURCE: REFINITIV

6 hours ago at 21:01
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