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Analysis and Data


REDFIN: MONTHLY HOUSING PAYMENTS HIT ALL-TIME HIGH

Keith Griffin
Mar 10, 2023


Payments of nearly $2,600 further dampen homebuying affordability.

Typical monthly housing payments hit a new all-time high of $2,563 this week, up
29% from $1,988 a year ago, according to a new report from Redfin. That comes
amidst a report earlier this week that half of Americans can’t afford a $250,000
home.

Redfin, a technology-powered real estate brokerage, says that’s dampening demand
and preventing many would-be sellers from listing their homes. Rising mortgage
rates sent monthly payments to new heights this week despite home prices
dropping: The typical U.S. home-sale price fell 1% year over year during the
four weeks ending March 5.

To look at the hit on homebuying affordability another way, according to Redfin,
a homebuyer on a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $376,000 home with today’s
average rate. That’s down from the $400,000 home a buyer on the same budget
could have bought a month ago when rates dropped to 6%.

Spending power has declined even more dramatically when compared to a year ago,
when mortgage rates were sitting at 3.85% and a buyer with a $2,500 monthly
budget could afford a $480,000 home.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported earlier this week that
132.5 million households nationwide, nearly 49%, are unable to afford a house
priced at $250,000. The nationwide median price of a new single-family home is
$425,786. A total of 96.5 million households — roughly 73% of all U.S.
households — cannot afford this median-priced new home, the NAHB said.

High monthly payments are deterring would-be homebuyers and sellers who want to
hang onto their relatively low rates, according to the Redfin report. Pending
home sales declined 16.1% year over year and were essentially flat from a week
earlier, defying seasonal trends; pending sales typically increase throughout
March. 

New listings of homes for sale dropped 21.7%, the biggest decline in two months.
That’s a reversal from January and early February when the drop off in both
pending sales and new listings was easing as the housing market started to thaw.
Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of home tours and other buying
services from Redfin agents—is down 4% from a week ago and 27% from a year ago.

“All eyes are on inflation as it continues to have a huge impact on mortgage
rates and the housing market,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr.
“The Fed said this week that it may hike interest rates more than anticipated to
combat persistent inflation. That news kept mortgage rates propped up, but next
week’s official February inflation reading could send them meaningfully up or
down. Homebuyers and sellers are ultra-sensitive to mortgage-rate fluctuations,
so rates starting to decline would likely bring some buyers and sellers back—and
rates rising would push more away.”

Some measures of homebuying demand are up from the low points they reached last
fall. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index is up 16% from its late-October trough and
pending home sales aren’t declining nearly as fast as they were in November.

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:

 * For the week ending March 9, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to
   6.73%, according to Freddie Mac data, marking the fifth straight week of
   increases. The daily average was 7.05% on March 8, per Mortgage News Daily.
 * Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending March 3 increased 7%
   from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted—but mortgage activity is still quite
   slow; applications had dropped to a 30-year low the week before and they’re
   down 3.7% from the low point they hit in October. Purchase applications were
   down 42% from a year earlier. This is according to the Mortgage Bankers
   Association.
 * The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index fell 4% from a week
   earlier and 2% from a month earlier during the week ending March 5. It was
   down 27% from a year earlier.
 * Google searches for “homes for sale” were up about 48% from the trough they
   hit in December during the week ending March 4, but down about 13% from a
   year earlier.
 * Touring activity as of March 4 was up about 16% from the start of the year,
   compared with a 23% increase at the same time last year, according to home
   tour technology company ShowingTime.
    


Redfin
Housing Prices
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Published
Mar 10, 2023

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Analysis and Data
Redfin Reports Mortgage Demand Ticks Up As Rates Drop

Amidst banking turmoil, busiest day for rate locks recorded in 2023.

Some homebuyers are returning to the market as mortgage rates decline from the
four-month high they reached last week, according to a new report from Redfin,
the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Daily average mortgage rates
dropped from 7% to about 6.5% over the we...

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Operations
Impac Mortgage Reports Losses For 4Q, 2022 Overall

Losses continue for second straight year; employee count drops 37%.

Impac Mortgage Holdings reported a second straight year of losses. Earnings were
down for the fourth quarter as well. Impac reported the net loss for the year
ended Dec. 31, 2022 increased to $39.4 million as compared to $3.9 million for
the year ended Dec. 31, 2021. The ye...

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