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Effective URL: https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/building-strategic-assumptions-dont-ignore-these-7-drivers-of-change?utm_camp...
Submission: On November 03 via api from US — Scanned from DE
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<li>
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<a href="javascript:void(0)" data-value="NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS">Northern Mariana Islands</a>
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INSIGHTS / ALL LEADERSHIP / ARTICLE
BUILDING STRATEGIC ASSUMPTIONS? DON'T IGNORE THESE 7 DRIVERS OF CHANGE
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October 06, 2022
Contributor: Jackie Wiles
As you craft enterprise strategy, make sure to scope these seven sources of
disruption.
Future-fit organizations actively sense and respond to disruptions and
anticipate change, but that requires a rigorous, deliberate — and expansive —
approach to scouting for trends that can upend your strategic assumptions and
plans. It also means that executive leaders must look far beyond the trends and
disruptions that exist within their core responsibilities.
Download template: Build a Better Strategic Plan for Your Function
“Organizations are in the midst of transformational change that is reshaping our
world and expanding our reach into worlds we create and those we have yet to
explore,” says Gartner VP Analyst Marty Resnick. “This degree of change will
force shifts in how people, and businesses, relate to each other. Old challenges
remain, new challenges unfold and endless opportunities abound."
“Take the industrialization of space,” Resnick says. “Commercial activity
outside of earth’s atmosphere may seem like science fiction, but it could be
just the kind of wild card to totally shake up industry. Think about the
possibilities for commercial space mining, laboratories and manufacturing.”
Gartner expects that by 2027, low-Earth-orbit satellite mesh will be considered
as “critical infrastructure” by the U.S. and Chinese governments, so what will
this — and any number of other disruptive trends — mean for your long-term
strategic plans?
A “TAPESTRY” OF INTERCONNECTED STRATEGIC ASSUMPTIONS
The Gartner “TPESTRE” of trends offers a framework to scope for environmental
and macro trends that weave together a story in seven interrelated categories:
1. Technological. The evolution, impact and disruption of technology change.
2. Political. Attitudes, institutions and legislation shifting the political
environment.
3. Economic. Factors in the local and global economic environment that
influence businesses and governments.
4. Social/Cultural. Attitudes, behaviors and lifestyles of individuals and
societal groups.
5. Trust/Ethics. Ethical expectations, behaviors, duties and biases of people
and companies toward one another and society.
6. Regulatory/Legal. Changes in laws and governmental policies and regulations
to reward or punish particular behaviors.
7. Environmental. Technical, political, economic, cultural, ethical and legal
changes supporting environmental protection and sustainability
Within each category are multiple trends key to scenario planning, strategic
planning and decisions about the direction of your business models,
people/capabilities and IT systems.
“Some trends are far better known than others, but each represents a potential
piece of the future and should prompt us to reexamine our assumptions about how
we work, play, socialize, communicate and transact,” says Resnick.
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THREE VERY DIFFERENT TYPES OF ECONOMIC DISRUPTORS
Consider just three of the trends in the economic category — all potentially
relevant to your scenario planning and strategic planning, regardless of how
remote they may seem today.
NO. 1: INDUSTRIALIZATION OF SPACE
Talk of outer space may conjure images of “Star Trek” or “Star Wars,” but low
earth orbit is already teeming with commerce.
A rapidly growing number of mass-produced satellites launched by commercial
vehicles already support a growing set of for-profit activities. And the cost of
launching a satellite has declined by 70% and could soon drop exponentially,
bringing the cost down to 1% of what it once was.
In the medium term, commercial space mining, laboratories and manufacturing are
increasingly likely. Opportunities include mining asteroids for useful raw
materials, developing safe venues for scientific experiments and
upcycling/sequestering hazardous but valuable debris currently in space.
The risks are also plentiful, of course, not least that increased space activity
could spark new forms of geopolitical conflict, and that space pollution and
waste could create environmental concerns that outweigh investment optimism.
Still, Gartner argues it’s time to consider new business models related directly
or indirectly to space exploration — from leveraging satellites to tapping
space-based clean energy sources.
NO. 2: DIGITALLY DOMINANT PRODUCTIVITY
Once seen as highly futuristic, digitally dominant productivity is emerging
front and center as a much-needed driver of growth. These productivity gains
will largely come from machines alone, rather than human-operated machines or
humans themselves, and will lean heavily on advances in artificial intelligence
(AI), machine learning (ML) and hyperautomation.
Gartner expects that:
* By 2028, machines will account for 20% of the global workforce and 40% of all
economic productivity.
* By 2025, negative growth rates in human-driven economic productivity will
become permanent as labor force participation rates drop.
The business impact includes opportunities and disruptions. For example:
* In the short term, certain industries with segments of lesser-skilled
workers, like shipping, will see efficiency gains as machines take over human
tasks.
* Longer-term, even high-skill service industries, such as legal and medicine,
will see unsupervised machines assume human tasks, leading to drops in labor
participation.
* Startup firms with nearly full nonhuman workforces will hone capabilities
that challenge larger firms and cause new rounds of M&A activity.
* Entrepreneurs who can find ways to scale startups using nonhuman workforces
will have a comparative advantage.
Enterprises that provide services should begin, if they aren’t doing so already,
to invest in capabilities to produce and deliver those services using non-human
entities — and integrate those entities into their workforce planning strategies
and resource management plans.
Governments must consider how to regulate and address issues of workforce
displacement and potential solutions like reskilling or minimum incomes.
NO. 3: AGING POPULATION
Changing demographics represent a well-known but no less disruptive force. Most
developed-economy populations are aging, and while greater proportions of these
populations will need medical and age-suitable support in the next 10 to 20
years, the decline in the working-age population will reduce tax revenues and
savings rates. The same demographic changes are already adding to global labor
costs.
Gartner expects that:
* By 2028, the tax bases of developed economies will contract 10%, leaving less
for public-sector spending plans.
* By 2030, health costs will grow 1.5x from the current percentage of total
public spending.
Organizations must continue to monitor new market opportunities that will emerge
as a result of these demographic shifts, whether catering to the changing
consumer behaviors of the young or the demands of the aging.
Governments with advanced economies should consider immigration policies to
attract skilled and entrepreneurial immigrants, which could include streamlining
visa processes and reducing capital requirements.
In short:
* To sense and respond to disruptions and anticipate change, executive leaders
must look far beyond the trends and disruptions that exist within their core
responsibilities.
* The Gartner “TPESTRE” of trends offers a framework to scope for environmental
and macro trends that weave together a story in seven interrelated
categories.
* The latest report highlights a diverse set of trends — in timeline and scope
— ranging from the well-known (population aging) to the little known
(industrialization of space).
This article has been updated annually since it was originally published in July
2021 to reflect new events, conditions and research.
Marty Resnick, VP Analyst at Gartner, primarily studies the futuristic
disruptions that impact enterprise mission-critical priorities, with a special
focus on how to spot, select and implement emerging and futuristic technologies
through trendspotting and tech radars.
EXPERIENCE GARTNER CONFERENCES
Join your peers for the unveiling of the latest insights at Gartner conferences.
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Recommended Gartner client* reading:
Brave New Worlds: Tapestry of Trends 2022 by Gartner Futures Lab
The Gartner Trendspotting Framework: Driving Operations, Innovation and Strategy
Ignition Guide to Operationalizing Trendspotting
*Note: Some documents may not be available to all Gartner clients.
BUILD A GREAT STRATEGIC PLAN FOR YOUR FUNCTION
Strategic Planning for your function? Here are four critical things to know and
do, and a customizable one-page template to capture your strategic plan.
Learn More
BUILD A GREAT STRATEGIC PLAN FOR YOUR FUNCTION
Strategic Planning for your function? Here are four critical things to know and
do, and a customizable one-page template to capture your strategic plan.
Learn More
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