www.nytimes.com Open in urlscan Pro
151.101.193.164  Public Scan

URL: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html
Submission: On January 16 via manual from US — Scanned from US

Form analysis 1 forms found in the DOM

<form class="select-wrap eln-1ta57nn disabled">
  <header class="eln-1snsuqj">
    <h3 class="eln-1dfzgsh">Choose up to three candidates to compare estimates</h3>
  </header> <label style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-1);"><input type="checkbox" class="eln-1ta57nn" value="trump-d"> <span class="label eln-1ta57nn">Trump</span> </label><label style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-2);"><input
      type="checkbox" class="eln-1ta57nn" value="desantis-r"> <span class="label eln-1ta57nn">DeSantis</span> </label><label style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-3);"><input type="checkbox" class="eln-1ta57nn" value="haley-n"> <span
      class="label eln-1ta57nn">Haley</span> </label><label style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-4);"><input type="checkbox" class="eln-1ta57nn" value="ramaswamy-v"> <span class="label eln-1ta57nn">Ramaswamy</span> </label><label
    style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-5);"><input type="checkbox" class="eln-1ta57nn" value="christie-c"> <span class="label eln-1ta57nn">Christie</span> </label><label style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-6);"><input type="checkbox"
      class="eln-1ta57nn" value="hutchinson-a"> <span class="label eln-1ta57nn">Hutchinson</span> </label><label style="--candidate-color: var(--republican-7);"><input type="checkbox" class="eln-1ta57nn" value="binkley-r"> <span
      class="label eln-1ta57nn">Binkley</span> </label>
</form>

Text Content

Skip to contentSkip to site index
Search & Section Navigation
Section Navigation
SEARCH
Elections

SUBSCRIBE FOR $1/WEEKLog in
Today’s Paper
SUBSCRIBE FOR $1/WEEK


Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT




IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Updated Jan. 15, 2024, 8:00 PM ET
 * Share full article
 * 
 * 

Live Updates Iowa Results Primary Calendar
 * Share full article
 * 
 * 

LIVE

Caucuses have started.


IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS

Republican Caucus Candidate Votes Percent Pct.% Delegates Delegates Del.
Donald J. Trump
0 +0.0% 0.0% No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
0 +0.0% 0.0% No delegates—
Nikki Haley
0 +0.0% 0.0% No delegates—
Total reported
0 + View all candidates

ANALYSIS FROM OUR REPORTERS

Results will start coming in after 8 p.m. Eastern time. Our live election model
will be back, with a twist. 1h ago


WHAT TO EXPECT

The Republican caucuses begin at 8 p.m. Eastern time at hundreds of precinct
locations across the state. Voters must appear in person (except for some
overseas and military voters) and be registered with the party, though same-day
registration is allowed.

Typically, voters indicate their preferences on blank sheets of paper. After the
results are tallied, they are read aloud before being sent to the state party.
In 2016, precincts began reporting results just after 8:30 p.m. Eastern time,
and nearly all results were in by 12:50 a.m. Eastern time.

The state’s 40 delegates (just 1.6 percent of Republican delegates nationwide)
will be allocated to candidates proportionally based on the final vote count. In
pre-caucus polling, former president Donald J. Trump held an overwhelming lead,
with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley neck-and-neck behind him.

ANALYSIS FROM OUR REPORTERS

Results will start coming in after 8 p.m. Eastern time. Our live election model
will be back, with a twist. 1h ago
Cedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux CityDavenportCedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux
CityDavenport
No results


ANALYSIS FROM OUR REPORTERS

Results will start coming in after 8 p.m. Eastern time. Our live election model
will be back, with a twist. 1h ago


WHERE VOTES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WHERE VOTES REMAIN

These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the vote reported so far, and
estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from
each county.


VOTES REPORTED

Cedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux CityDavenportCedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux
CityDavenport



Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is
ahead.


ESTIMATED VOTES REMAINING

Cedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux CityDavenportCedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux
CityDavenport

WAITING FOR ESTIMATES


Cedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux CityDavenportCedar RapidsDes MoinesSioux
CityDavenport

Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is
ahead.

Where votes have been reported Where we think votes remain


County Trump% DeSantis Haley% Percent of votes in % In Estimated remaining votes
Est. remain. votes Adair 0% 0% 0% 0% — Adams 0% 0% 0% 0% — Allamakee 0% 0% 0% 0%
— Appanoose 0% 0% 0% 0% — Audubon 0% 0% 0% 0% — Benton 0% 0% 0% 0% — Black Hawk
0% 0% 0% 0% — Boone 0% 0% 0% 0% — Bremer 0% 0% 0% 0% — Buchanan 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Buena Vista 0% 0% 0% 0% — Butler 0% 0% 0% 0% — Calhoun 0% 0% 0% 0% — Carroll 0%
0% 0% 0% — Cass 0% 0% 0% 0% — Cedar 0% 0% 0% 0% — Cerro Gordo 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Cherokee 0% 0% 0% 0% — Chickasaw 0% 0% 0% 0% — Clarke 0% 0% 0% 0% — Clay 0% 0%
0% 0% — Clayton 0% 0% 0% 0% — Clinton 0% 0% 0% 0% — Crawford 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Dallas 0% 0% 0% 0% — Davis 0% 0% 0% 0% — Decatur 0% 0% 0% 0% — Delaware 0% 0% 0%
0% — Des Moines 0% 0% 0% 0% — Dickinson 0% 0% 0% 0% — Dubuque 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Emmet 0% 0% 0% 0% — Fayette 0% 0% 0% 0% — Floyd 0% 0% 0% 0% — Franklin 0% 0% 0%
0% — Fremont 0% 0% 0% 0% — Greene 0% 0% 0% 0% — Grundy 0% 0% 0% 0% — Guthrie 0%
0% 0% 0% — Hamilton 0% 0% 0% 0% — Hancock 0% 0% 0% 0% — Hardin 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Harrison 0% 0% 0% 0% — Henry 0% 0% 0% 0% — Howard 0% 0% 0% 0% — Humboldt 0% 0%
0% 0% — Ida 0% 0% 0% 0% — Iowa 0% 0% 0% 0% — Jackson 0% 0% 0% 0% — Jasper 0% 0%
0% 0% — Jefferson 0% 0% 0% 0% — Johnson 0% 0% 0% 0% — Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% — Keokuk
0% 0% 0% 0% — Kossuth 0% 0% 0% 0% — Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% — Linn 0% 0% 0% 0% — Louisa
0% 0% 0% 0% — Lucas 0% 0% 0% 0% — Lyon 0% 0% 0% 0% — Madison 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Mahaska 0% 0% 0% 0% — Marion 0% 0% 0% 0% — Marshall 0% 0% 0% 0% — Mills 0% 0% 0%
0% — Mitchell 0% 0% 0% 0% — Monona 0% 0% 0% 0% — Monroe 0% 0% 0% 0% — Montgomery
0% 0% 0% 0% — Muscatine 0% 0% 0% 0% — O’Brien 0% 0% 0% 0% — Osceola 0% 0% 0% 0%
— Page 0% 0% 0% 0% — Palo Alto 0% 0% 0% 0% — Plymouth 0% 0% 0% 0% — Pocahontas
0% 0% 0% 0% — Polk 0% 0% 0% 0% — Pottawattamie 0% 0% 0% 0% — Poweshiek 0% 0% 0%
0% — Ringgold 0% 0% 0% 0% — Sac 0% 0% 0% 0% — Scott 0% 0% 0% 0% — Shelby 0% 0%
0% 0% — Sioux 0% 0% 0% 0% — Story 0% 0% 0% 0% — Tama 0% 0% 0% 0% — Taylor 0% 0%
0% 0% — Union 0% 0% 0% 0% — Van Buren 0% 0% 0% 0% — Wapello 0% 0% 0% 0% — Warren
0% 0% 0% 0% — Washington 0% 0% 0% 0% — Wayne 0% 0% 0% 0% — Webster 0% 0% 0% 0% —
Winnebago 0% 0% 0% 0% — Winneshiek 0% 0% 0% 0% — Woodbury 0% 0% 0% 0% — Worth 0%
0% 0% 0% — Wright 0% 0% 0% 0% — + View all

Check back after initial votes are reported to get our live forecast of the
race’s outcome.


LIVE FORECAST

This is our current best estimate for each candidate’s final share of the vote.
We look at the reported votes and adjust our estimate based on what we expect
from the votes that remain. Read more about how it works.

Trump



Haley



DeSantis



Ramaswamy



Hutchinson



Trump



Haley



DeSantis




ESTIMATING EACH CANDIDATE’S SHARE OF THE FINAL VOTE

This chart shows the range of estimates for each candidate’s share of the final
vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow as our statistical
model becomes more confident.

Waiting for estimates


HOW OUR ESTIMATES CHANGED OVER TIME

Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported
margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the
presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.


CHOOSE UP TO THREE CANDIDATES TO COMPARE ESTIMATES

Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Christie Hutchinson Binkley
NYT estimate Reported vote share

Estimated vote share

Best guess
50% of outcomes
95%
10%20%30%40%50%60% 8 PM8:30 PM9 PM9:30 PM10 PM10:30 PM11 PM


TOTAL EXPECTED VOTE

20%40%60%80%100% 8 PM8:30 PM9 PM9:30 PM10 PM10:30 PM11 PM
 * Share full article
 * 
 * 

Note: Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race last week, but the
Iowa Republican Party will still tabulate any votes he receives in the caucuses.

Source: Election results are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its
own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of
remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results
providers. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports
from election officials.

Produced by Michael Andre, Camille Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick,
Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote,
Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Andrew Fischer, Martín González
Gómez, Will Houp, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Ilana Marcus, Alicia
Parlapiano, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart, Isaac White and Christine Zhang.

Editing by Wilson Andrews, William P. Davis, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski and Allison
McCartney.


 * Share full article
 * 
 * 



Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT




SITE INDEX




SITE INFORMATION NAVIGATION

 * © 2024 The New York Times Company

 * NYTCo
 * Contact Us
 * Accessibility
 * Work with us
 * Advertise
 * T Brand Studio
 * Your Ad Choices
 * Privacy Policy
 * Terms of Service
 * Terms of Sale
 * Site Map
 * Canada
 * International
 * Help
 * Subscriptions



Already have an account? Log in.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KEEP READING THE TIMES BY CREATING A FREE ACCOUNT OR LOGGING IN.

Continue


Enjoy unlimited access to all of The Times.

See subscription options